Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 182339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
539 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast period,
with some brief periods of IFR possible, especially at KMLC. The
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Monday morning,
so included a tempo at all sites at that time. Southerly winds
will gust to near 30 knots at times, with low level wind shear at
KFSM, where surface winds will be lighter and more easterly
tonight and early Monday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/

Low level moisture continues to surge north this afternoon with gusty
south winds. The windy conditions will persist overnight and especially
into Monday as strong upper trough digs across the Southwest. Temperatures
tonight will likely hold near steady this evening, then slowly rise
after midnight with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms spreading
into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in nose of 50-60 knot low
level jet axis. Gusty winds to around 40 mph are likely into the day
Monday as very tight pressure gradient persists ahead of system and
a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the area.

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue Monday into
Tuesday ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move into far northeast
Oklahoma late Tuesday morning. Showers/thunderstorms will become more
widespread along/behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday as cold front
slowly pushes south. Precipitable water values will likely climb 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time year and could be in
excess of 1.5 inches as deep moisture plume from the Pacific remains
in place. Heavy rainfall will be likely during this time with widespread
2-3 inches of precipitation expected with locally higher amounts
before cold front pushes south into the ARKLATX region Wednesday

Also some concern for the potential for freezing rain late Tuesday night
into Wednesday as secondary upper wave lifts out of Mexico with upper
jet couplet developing over the region in right rear quad of jet streak.
Whether temperatures can stay or fall below freezing remains in question
during the day Wednesday and will likely depend on how heavy/widespread
precipitation is at that time. Given the uncertainties, stayed with
only light ice amounts for now, mainly over NE OK/far NW AR, but persons
should continue to monitor the latest forecast as these amounts will
likely fluctuate over the next few days.

Active weather pattern continues Thursday night into Friday as another
strong upper trough moves into the southern Rockies. Areas of rain with
embedded thunderstorms will likely spread over the area during this
time with another round of locally heavy rainfall possible. Given
the expected rainfall this week, drought conditions will significantly
improve, especially over southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.




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