Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 150010
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front had moved through the region with northwesterly winds
behind the front. Current VFR cigs will gradually drop through
6-9Z with the possibility of a few terminals reaching low VFR and
MVFR cigs. By 14-16Z clouds will begin to clear as latest system
moves east and high pressure builds back across the Plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main items of interest today will be fire weather Saturday and
rain chances Saturday night into Sunday. A pattern change toward
the Christmas holiday weekend could bring some big weather
changes.

After another near or slightly above average cool day on Friday,
strong south winds and warmer temps can be expected on Saturday.
The winds will elevated fire weather concerns across the region,
where the fire danger remains very high due to the very dry
conditions and cured vegetation.

A pair of PV maxes over AZ and the Baja will consolidate and form
a closed low. The system will then open up and eject northeast
this weekend as an upstream kicker moves onshore from the Pacific.
This southern system will be able to tap a couple pools of better
PW air...one over the Pacific and another over the western Gulf.
Moisture will stream rapidly north and east as the system ejects
Saturday night. The best rain chances will be in the south and
east, with the heavier rains staying east of the forecast area.
Rain chances will come to a fast end from SW to NE as the system
lifts away from the region Sunday morning. The latest data
suggests that there will not be enough moisture available for the
second, kicker system as it moves across Monday night and Tuesday
to warrant a PoP mention.

Deterministic models still point toward a major pattern change
toward the Christmas holiday weekend. A westward shift of the
ridge and height falls in the Four Corners region could spell more
active days ahead for the Plains weather-wise. Colder weather
with the potential for wintry precip can`t be ruled out, but the
details still remain quite uncertain at this point.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  30  53  37 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   53  33  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  28  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   46  26  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   43  28  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   49  32  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  29  49  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   51  32  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  33  54  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....11
LONG TERM....30



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