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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251127
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
527 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 03Z...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS NE
OKLAHOMA SITES MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY PASSING FAR WEST TX WITH
EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL / EAST TX. SFC
REPORTS SHOW A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN / SLEET ONGOING WITH TEMPS
JUST AROUND FREEZING BENEATH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECTATION
REMAIN THAT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN INITIAL
ONSET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TOWARD
ALL SNOW AS THE STRONGER LIFT APPROACHES. LATEST DATA SUGGEST SFC
TEMPS TO REMAIN VERY NEAR FREEZING WITH A SLOW TREND UPWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING. UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE AREAS NEAREST THE RED RIVER AND MAKE THE ASSUMPTION
THAT SNOW RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MARGINAL SFC
TEMPS. PRECIP WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON AND ANY SNOW WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF MOSTLY MELTING
BEFORE SUNSET. ELSEWHERE...MILD TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED BY A
SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS W/ 30-40MPH GUSTS LIKELY.

THE RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EMBRACE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY W/ A BIT OF OF WARMING ON SATURDAY. THE FORECAST
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS ONE OF FAST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP SOME DEGREE OF COLD LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. THE RESULTANT FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP
CHANCES DURING MUCH OF THE TIMEFRAME...WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE OF
EITHER A COLD RAIN OR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
LOCATIONS DEPENDING EXACTLY HOW LOW LEVEL TEMPS RESPOND. A BRIEF
WARM UP LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14