Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 131002
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
402 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning radar imagery show convective showers breaking out
within the warm advection regime occurring across the region.
13/00z upper air analysis showed the 850mb front between DDC/OUN
and the eastern portion has since lifted farther north per latest
meso-analysis and observed 30-35kt flow from VWP data. Surface
temperatures have warmed a degree or two across far eastern OK and
northwest Arkansas in response. The surface freezing line runs
from near Miami to just north of Tulsa to Okemah. There is some
freezing rain occurring north of that line from Pawnee through
Ottawa Counties.

Forecast is dependent on placement of surface freezing line and
QPF amounts. Majority of cold air advection has ended across our
area...with no fresh arctic air being injected.
Therefore...temperatures today will remain steady within a degree
or two. The exception will be across the far northwest part of the
forecast area where dewpoints are in the teens. Once rain begins
to saturate the column...these locations will wetbulb down a few
degrees...and this is the same area where we currently have an ice
storm warning. Within the freezing rain advisory area...light
amounts of rain or freezing rain are expected today. Temperatures
are also expected to remain in the low 30s...with some icing
concerns to untreated roadways and elevated surfaces. Amount of
dry air present on evening soundings from DFW/OUN will be
problematic for producing heavy amounts of precipitation at least
early on. Later today...with persistent isentropic
ascent...precipitation will have expanded in areal coverage with
best icing potential north and west of Tulsa.

Synoptic scale lift will increase by late Friday evening/Saturday as
western upper low approaches the region. This should provide the
large scale support for more rain and freezing rain...and the
heaviest icing potential is expected during this time period.

By Sunday...temperatures warm above freezing. We will have another
round of showers with isolated thunderstorms through Sunday
evening.

Corfidi/Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  32  34  33 /  80  80  80  60
FSM   53  43  48  48 /  60  60  40  30
MLC   41  37  41  41 /  60  70  50  40
BVO   30  29  32  31 /  70  80  80  80
FYV   49  43  45  45 /  70  70  60  40
BYV   42  38  42  41 /  70  70  60  50
MKO   40  35  40  40 /  70  80  60  50
MIO   34  32  34  34 /  80  80  80  80
F10   36  34  37  36 /  70  80  70  50
HHW   55  49  55  54 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ057-058-
     060>067.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Saturday for OKZ057-058-060-061-064-065.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ054>056-059.

AR...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06



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