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000
FXUS64 KTSA 051553
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING.
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN. OVER
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...A MORE OF A
SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN. IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOME SNOW GRAINS MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET HAVE BEEN
REPORTED.

WINTRY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM LAYER IS DEEPEST AND HANGS ON LONGEST. OVER EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE OF
A SLEET WITH A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 BECOMING ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE PRECIP...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 25
MPH RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING. THE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME
MORE 10 TO NEAR 20 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS PRECIP
TOTALS CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...THESE WINDS COULD HELP TO START TO
CREATE ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST HOURLY WEATHER/WIND GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST OBS. ALSO TWEAKED HIGH TEMP GRIDS AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME DROPPING
TEMPS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AS IS AND UPPED ICE AMOUNTS FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THE REST OF THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  18  24   7 /  80  90  70   0
FSM   34  24  27   9 / 100 100  80  10
MLC   32  21  25   8 / 100 100  70   0
BVO   27  17  24   8 /  50  70  50   0
FYV   29  19  23   5 / 100 100  70   0
BYV   29  18  22   4 / 100 100  80   0
MKO   30  20  24   6 / 100 100  70   0
MIO   27  18  23   7 /  70  80  70   0
F10   29  19  24   7 /  90 100  70   0
HHW   35  25  29  14 / 100 100  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30