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000
FXUS64 KTSA 062129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER
HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
UP SOMEWHAT OVER WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT...WHILE CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM SE OK THROUGH NW AR...WHERE SOME FOG
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP IN ALL AREAS
FRIDAY AND BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
LOW-MID 60S FOR HIGHS. WINDS AND ARM WEATHER WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
FIRE THREAT...HOWEVER JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS FALLEN IN LAST FEW
DAYS TO HELP SOME.

WARM WEATHER WILL NOT STICK AROUND LONG AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING GREAT BASIN AREA EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AT WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT...MAINLY POST-FRONTAL
PRECIP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS EASTERN OK
AND NW ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
PRECIP THIS TIME AROUND...BUT NAM REMAINS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
COOLING THE LAYER FROM 900-700MB SAT MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
FORECAST WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS TIME...ALBEIT A VERY CHILLY
RAIN WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 ACROSS MUCH OF NE OK. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE PRECIP WILL END EARLY ENOUGH SAT NIGHT
BEFORE AIRMASS COOLS ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER.

ONCE THIS WAVE DEPARTS...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REACHING LOW 70S MONDAY. NEXT FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING TUESDAY BUT THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL BE EVEN WARMER...WITH UPPER 70S APPEARING LIKELY ACROSS
SE OKLAHOMA. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED WAVE AND COLD ENOUGH TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT SOME
WINTER MIX BY LATE TUE NIGHT/WED...WHILE GFS CONTINUES WITH DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR THE MOST PART WILL STAY CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS
IN THE EXTENDED...ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK AND COOLER
TEMPS WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  64  38  42 /   0   0  20  80
FSM   29  63  41  54 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   34  64  42  48 /   0   0  10  70
BVO   25  62  35  42 /   0   0  20  80
FYV   24  61  36  52 /   0   0  10  70
BYV   29  60  37  49 /   0   0  10  70
MKO   32  63  39  45 /   0   0  10  70
MIO   29  61  36  42 /   0   0  20  80
F10   33  63  40  44 /   0   0  10  70
HHW   34  64  43  57 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....14