Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291644
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY JUST S OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. MLC MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED...BUT WITH COVERAGE IN QUESTION...WILL ONLY CARRY A VCTS
THERE. FSM MAY BE IMPACTED AS WELL...BUT SINCE THAT TERMINAL IS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT PRESENT...WILL LEAVE ALL MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22


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