075
FXUS64 KTSA 111737
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

   - Isolated showers and storms possible northwest of Interstate
     44 this afternoon. Heat index values from the upper 90s to
     near 105 expected this afternoon.

   - Thunderstorm chances increase after midnight across NE OK, with
     potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

   - Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms persist this weekend
     with continued potential for locally heavy rainfall.

   - An active weather regime continues into next week with daily
     thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A shortwave trough is sliding across Nebraska and Kansas today, with
a surface low centered near St Joseph, MO. A weak cool front trails
back to the southwest and will make a run at us today, but likely
come up short. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to
develop on that front by this afternoon across south-central
KS/north-central and NW OK and some of this activity could impact
portions of NE OK into early evening, mainly to the north and west
of Tulsa. An isolated/marginal severe wind threat and locally heavy
rain threat exists. A reinforcing frontal push will force the
synoptic boundary down to around the KS border by Saturday morning,
where it will stall. Ahead of the boundary, moisture pooling will
increase PWATs to approach 2" and the majority of ensemble and CAM
data suggests that storms will develop across NE OK after midnight
in this area. Weak westerly deep layer flow suggests storms will be
slow- moving and could train as well. The 12Z HREF indicates
potential for isolated 4" amounts. After coordination with
surrounding offices, we`ve elected to issue a Flood Watch for much
of NE OK from midnight to 18Z Saturday.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Some southward shift in the convective band into Saturday morning is
possible while coverage trends lower, at least briefly. Per latest
CAMs, and uptick in storm coverage is expected into the afternoon
possibly due to an approaching convective vort max/MCV emanating
from convection off the High Plains. There could also be renewed
development near the synoptic front in the vicinity of the KS
border. Used CONShort for PoP forecast guidance Saturday afternoon
and evening which reflected this better. With high PWAT air now in
place over the region, pockets of locally heavy rainfall which could
lead to flooding are possible, as well as an isolated wet downburst.
If/when locations of the heavy rainfall become more evident, the
Flood Watch can be extended/expanded to cover the threat. High
rain/storm chances continue into Sunday and Monday before they tail
off a bit into next week.

Models differ on the timing of the next front later on next week,
but have trended less aggressive with its southward push.
Nevertheless, some increase in rain/storm chances will occur in the
vicinity of the front before ensemble guidance suggests mid-level
ridging will take hold by next weekend.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period.
Breezy/gusty south to southwest winds will commence after sunrise
this morning, with occasional to frequent 20 to 25 knot gusts
through the afternoon at most TAF sites. Otherwise, anticipate few
to scattered mid-level and upper-level clouds through the period.
Isolated showers and storms could develop across northeast OK by
mid-late afternoon. Added a TEMPO group at BVO, TUL, and
RVS...though forecast probability and confidence is low at this
time. Slightly better convection chances will come by early this
evening and into tonight across NE OK and NW AR. Maintained a
PROB30 group for TSRA at TAF sites north of I-40 reflecting this
chance.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  87  72  85 /  40  70  50  60
FSM   77  91  74  88 /  10  30  30  60
MLC   75  88  71  86 /  10  50  50  70
BVO   71  87  69  85 /  50  60  40  50
FYV   72  87  69  85 /  20  50  40  70
BYV   72  88  69  85 /  20  50  30  70
MKO   74  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  70
MIO   72  86  69  82 /  60  70  40  60
F10   73  86  70  83 /  20  60  50  70
HHW   74  90  72  89 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for
     OKZ054>064.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67