Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 102324
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern is the elevated fire weather conditions
expected across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas tomorrow both immediately ahead of and immediately behind
an approaching cold front.

After a chilly overnight tonight and early morning tomorrow,
temperatures will again warm to well above normal levels tomorrow
afternoon, as gusty westerly winds develop late morning. Current
dew points have dropped into the mid teens to mid 20s across the
region, with only slightly higher values likely tomorrow. Minimum
relative humidities across most of eastern Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas will be in the 20 to 25 percent range, with 25 to
30 percent in far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The
highest afternoon wind speeds in northeast Oklahoma should follow
the frontal passage mid to late afternoon, and with the cooler air
lagging the initial wind shift, there should be a short window
when Red Flag conditions are met near the Kansas border and
possibly as far south as Highway 412. In far northwest Arkansas,
marginal Red Flag conditions may be precede the front, as well,
with higher wind speeds ahead of the front in this part of the
forecast area. A Fire Weather Watch will be posted for Pawnee,
Osage, Washington, and Nowata counties in northeast Oklahoma,
where confidence in Red Flag conditions is highest. Later shifts
will need to evaluate for possible upgrade and/or expansion.

Below normal temperatures will return for Tuesday behind
tomorrow`s cold front, with a quick warmup on Wednesday ahead of
another quick cold frontal passage Wednesday night and into
Thursday. After near to below temperatures Thursday and Friday,
another warmup will ensue ahead of yet another dry frontal
passage. Gusty winds will be likely with this front, but at this
point, it appears that dew points will be higher than with the
current situation owing to a more west to southwesterly upper
level flow versus the strong northerly flow at present, which
could abate the potential fire danger somewhat. Stay tuned.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for OKZ054>056-059.

AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....05



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