Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 301108
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Slow moving low pressure to our north over KS will maintain MVFR
cigs across NE OK and NW AR thru the day. Cigs are higher in the
south down at KMLC, into the low VFR range. Cigs will scatter out
from SW to NE late today and into the evening starting at KMLC and
then later at KTUL/KRVS and KFSM, but will likely not clear out
of KBVO, KFYV, KROG, and KXNA thru the TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/
Upper closed low was positioned across eastern Kansas this morning
with dry slot evident in water vapor imagery extending from east
Texas north into western Missouri. Early morning radar trends show
scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of eastern Missouri
and Arkansas with a more significant band of convection moving into
southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. Surface observations and wrap-
around showers indicated surface low was in southeast Kansas and
will continue moving east into Missouri this afternoon.
Today will be a bit blustery as temperatures struggle to make it out
of the 50s for most locations, especially where cloud cover is
abundant. A few showers will be possible across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas as the low moves east.
Temperatures will rebound Friday with the region once again between
systems and shortwave ridging in place. Next system already on the
horizon, currently making landfall across the Pacific Northwest. The
trough will take a dive into the Great Basin before moving over the
Southern Rockies and ejecting out onto the Southern Plains this
weekend. Models now differ with how far south the system will travel
and how quickly it will move east. Regardless, the system will bring
a good chance for another round of showers and thunderstorms, likely
beginning Saturday night into Sunday morning with the first wave and
then another round Sunday night into Monday. Right now it looks like
any severe weather should remain south of the forecast area,
especially if the deeper southern track persists. If the track
trends a bit more north, severe threat will likely increase.
Another system will make an appearance by the middle of next week.
The midweek system looks to track north of the area, with showers
and thunderstorms likely forming along the associated cold front.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 53 41 71 52 / 30 0 0 10
FSM 59 43 76 51 / 20 0 0 0
MLC 59 43 79 55 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 53 38 67 47 / 50 0 0 10
FYV 51 41 71 50 / 30 10 0 0
BYV 51 43 67 48 / 30 10 0 0
MKO 56 41 74 53 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 52 40 66 48 / 50 10 0 0
F10 59 42 74 54 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 65 46 81 54 / 0 0 0 0