Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 290453
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop late tonight and early Sunday morning,
with KFYV most likely to be affected. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at mainly the eastern Oklahoma
sites Sunday afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
This evening...a weak boundary stretched from the Texas Panhandle
through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas into Missouri and
the Upper Midwest...while a dryline was located from North
Central Texas into Southwest Texas. Some scattered convection was
occurring along/near the dryline as an upper level vort max lifted
from Northern Mexico into Texas. Across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas the cap continued to strengthen with the main
areas of warm advection and stronger LLJ shifting back westward
into Western Oklahoma...which has allowed to keep the CWA dry
through this evening. Mostly clear skies and light winds were
common over the CWA.
Overnight tonight...the upper level vort max looks to continue to
make its way toward the red river by Sunday morning. Ongoing
convection with this vort max should begin to weaken as it
progresses into more stable air the closer to the CWA it gets with
some associated high clouds pushing into the region by early
morning Sunday. At the same time...the weak boundary over the CWA
is expected to lose it definition which should help to limit
thunderstorm potential tonight...however the potential isn`t zero.
Thus...will continue with tonight`s pop grids just below
Also tonight...as the boundary becomes more diffuse...light
winds...temps cooling to/near the dewpoint and mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies are forecast by early morning Sunday. These
conditions could allow for some patchy areas of fog to develop
across the region...though at this time enough uncertainty remains
to keep any mention out of the forecast for now. Thus...for
evening update...have added minor tweaks to temp/sky/dewpoint/wind
grids based on current trends and observations otherwise current
forecast seems to be handling well at this time.