Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
BVO AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SE OK/NW AR BY MID EVENING
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE CANCELED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. HAVE
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE LEFT POPS AS THEY
WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




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