Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 271017
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
417 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAIN AT THE
CURRENT TIME BEING BETWEEN INTERSTATES 44 AND 40.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY...AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND
TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN END. A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MIXTURE
ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. SNOW WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY
THE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE COLD AIRMASS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. A BRIEF
WARMUP WILL OCCUR MONDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
LAG THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE CONSISTENT MESSAGE IS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
RESULTING IN MAINLY A RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EVENT DEPENDING ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM +1 TO +4 C THURSDAY EVENING AND +2 TO +7 C FRIDAY MORNING ON
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH WILL PRECLUDE SNOW. TEMPERATURES MAY
RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST PLACES BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT
THIS IS TOO FAR AWAY TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

COLDER AIR WILL DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. AS OF NOW...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG DEAL BUT STAY TUNED.

STAYED NEAR THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  23  42  23 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   45  31  45  28 /  70  40  10   0
MLC   40  26  44  26 /  60  30   0   0
BVO   38  18  41  20 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   41  24  42  22 /  60  40   0   0
BYV   41  25  41  23 /  70  40  10  10
MKO   39  25  43  24 /  50  20   0   0
MIO   38  22  40  22 /  40  10   0   0
F10   38  24  43  25 /  50  10   0   0
HHW   44  30  47  28 /  70  40  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.