Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 140857
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
257 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast concerns focus on snow chances over the next couple of
days and the arrival of another cold Arctic airmass.

We`ve had a couple of reports of flurries overnight with the more
widespread light snow remaining farther north in KS so far. Best
combination of dendritic zone saturation/lift ahead of approaching
wave will spread across far southeast KS/southwest MO and into
parts of northwest AR this morning along with increasing snow
chances. Current snowfall forecast is generally about a half inch
or less, so will hold off on any headlines at this time.
Otherwise, expect a warmer day areawide with 40s returning this
afternoon for most areas outside of northwest AR.

The next slug of Arctic air currently residing across southern
Canada will spread south through the Plains today and sweep across
our forecast area early Monday. A rather narrow zone of post-frontal
lift is progged along the KS/OK border on Monday, and while the
best chances of accumulating snow should remain just to our north,
we`ll need to keep a close eye on those far northeast OK
counties. Attention will shift farther south by Monday night, with
the possibility of some additional light snow across southeast OK
into western AR. Current forecast amounts continue to remain
around an inch or less, and this will be further refined with
later forecasts.

Bitterly cold temperatures will settle in for Monday night into
Tuesday, with morning lows in the single digits for much of the
area. Will likely need a wind chill advisory for Monday
night/Tuesday morning, with current forecast values around -5 to
-15 across much of the area.

The remainder of next week should remain dry, with the cold air
finally releasing its grip by Friday and into the weekend. Another
upper wave and associated cold front may impact the area late in
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  30  31   7 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   42  31  36  16 /  10   0  20  20
MLC   45  33  39  12 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   45  28  30   4 /  10   0  30  10
FYV   37  27  28   7 /  30   0  20  10
BYV   35  28  29   5 /  40   0  20  20
MKO   43  29  32  11 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   40  25  27   4 /  40   0  40  10
F10   46  31  34  10 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   45  31  47  18 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18



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