Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 242343
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
643 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through at least 10Z. After that time,
MVFR ceilings are likely to develop between 10-15Z, with the
ceilings lifting to VFR after 17-18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Frontal boundary currently located across western Kansas/far
northwest Oklahoma will continue a slow eastward progression this
afternoon in association with upper wave moving through the Black
Hills region. There is a very limited chance that a few storms
could develop over northwest Oklahoma this afternoon/evening,
and affect portions of far northeast Oklahoma near the OK/KS
border tonight. Better thunderstorm chances however will likely
remain well north of the area.

Gusty south winds will continue tonight into Monday ahead of
potent upper low moving into the four corners region by Monday
afternoon. Still appears that strong capping inversion will keep
thunderstorm chances to a minimum through Monday night in advance
of main system.

Upper low will lift northeast into the central plains on Tuesday,
becoming negatively tilted with strong 80-90 knot jet rotating
around base of upper trough Tuesday afternoon/evening. Atmosphere
will become very unstable by late afternoon along/east of dry line
moving through western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to
rapidly develop along dry line by late afternoon with severe
storms moving into northeast Oklahoma by early evening. All modes
of severe weather will be likely, including tornadoes, as storms
move through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas
Tuesday night.

At least a limited severe weather threat will continue on Wednesday
as dry line moves into eastern oklahoma although low level
forcing is expected to be weaker along boundary. Any storms that
do develop would have the potential to produce very large hail
given the steep lapse rates expected.

Active weather pattern will continue with another storm system
moving out of the desert southwest and into the region Thursday
night into Friday. Along with the severe weather threat, flooding
could become a significant concern given the multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall expected this week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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