Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 032333
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Surface high pressure will continue to build across the region
tonight into Sunday with VFR conditions through the TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
Below average temperatures will remain the rule thru the
weekend...as surface ridging remains in place on the back side
of the southeast states upper low/trough. Ridging aloft prevails
as well...sandwiched between upper troughs to our west and east.
Thus...the storm activity that has been occurring during the day
across western OK in association with an ejecting wave over the
central Rockies could not survive the trek east across the state.
Tranquil autumn weather will continue.
The southern stream blocking pattern will begin to open up next
week...with the southeast states upper low opening up and lifting
out...while the southwest CONUS upper low slowly approaches the
southern hi Plains. Ridging will be maintained aloft
downstream...thus tranquil weather will continue for much of next
week. Surface ridging will weaken and shift east...allowing for
winds to switch around to the south and for temperatures to warm
The evolution of the southern stream upper low over the south
central CONUS next week still remains uncertain. The ECMWF is
sticking to its guns...keeping the upper low in the southern
stream disconnected from a fast moving shortwave trough in the
northern stream over the Midwest. In fact...the model continues to
suggest that it will even retrograde beneath an amplifying ridge
over the western CONUS late next week. Thus...it remains to be
seen whether the upper low will have any influence on our sensible
weather. The GFS still suggests more phasing of the northern and
southern streams...and thus shows more influence from the upper
low over our area. Given the superior performance of the ECMWF of
late...it is hard to argue against it at this point. On a side
note...there is better agreement that concomitant cold front from
the northern stream trough will bring at least low chances for
rain/storms Thursday night. Nevertheless...given the
uncertainties...will go below consensus pops for the latter part
of next week.