Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 142324
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs will become more widespread this evening...IFR cigs
developing later tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Expect some areas of showers/drizzle with the frontal passage
which should be around 14-18Z north to south through eastern
OK and western AR. Improving cigs are expected after the frontal
passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns for this forecast package include the passage of two
frontal boundaries, and the associated wind shifts and
precipitation.

The first front will push southward through the area
Wednesday, reaching the Red River, before lifting back northward
as a warm front Thursday. Slight chances of light rain or drizzle
will persist ahead of this system, with precipitation likely
expanding across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early
Wednesday as the frontal boundary advances across the area.
Between a tenth to a third of an inch of precipitation will be
possible in these areas. Dynamics will be such that isolated
thunder will be possible Wednesday, especially across southeast
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas.

A second much stronger low pressure system and associated cold
front will begin to influence the region`s weather Friday. Strong
southerly flow will develop ahead of the system, with wind gusts
reaching between 30-35 miles per hour across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. This, with increased sunshine, will warm
temperatures well above normal for Friday afternoon. Readings as
high as 80 degrees are not out of the question. With much of the
vegetation across the area drying out, along with warm
temperatures and strong winds, high fire spread potential will be
a concern Friday. The lack of precipitation with this second
system will also contribute to increased fire weather levels. The
frontal boundary will push through the region Saturday morning,
quickly turning the winds out of the north. Winds behind the front
will be just as strong, with gusts reaching 30-35 miles per hour,
mainly across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Behind the second frontal passage, surface high pressure will
settle into the area bringing clearing skies and drier air into
the region, and finally bringing the dreary and damp weather of
late to an end.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  64  40  63 /  30  60   0  10
FSM   52  64  45  63 /  20  70  20  20
MLC   59  65  48  64 /  10  50  20  20
BVO   55  63  35  61 /  60  40   0  10
FYV   52  61  39  62 /  50  70  10  10
BYV   51  62  38  60 /  60  70   0  10
MKO   55  64  42  63 /  20  70  10  10
MIO   55  62  37  63 /  60  60   0  10
F10   58  64  43  63 /  20  50  10  10
HHW   58  67  55  64 /   0  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.