Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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799
FXUS64 KTSA 222247
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Brief MVFR vsbys will be possible in patchy fog late tonight
...mainly across NW AR. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail
at all sites through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fall is officially here, but it, in no way, feels like it outside.
That is not about to change for the next couple of days either.
Upper level high pressure continues to dominate the weather
pattern across Oklahoma and Arkansas, with the next weather maker
positioned along the West Coast and poised to make a slow
approach. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to be about 10
degrees above normal and closer to 5 to 10 degrees above normal
for Saturday. Despite the cooler temperatures on Saturday, increased
low level moisture in advance of the aforementioned storm system
will allow for more muggy conditions than the last couple of days.

Thunderstorm chances will increase dramatically during the day
Saturday and especially into Saturday night and Sunday, as the
upper level low moves into the Rockies and then into the Central
Plains. The associated cold front will move into parts of
northeast Oklahoma late Saturday night and into early Sunday,
making southward progress through the rest of the forecast area
into Sunday night. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur
into early next week, with heavy rain potential high due to well
above normal precipitable water values present, especially through
the weekend.

Temperatures behind the cold front should not be exceptionally
cold, although clouds and precipitation will likely keep
temperatures well below normal for at least the early part of next
week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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