Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 172338
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Afternoon cumulus are quickly dissipating with VFR conditions
expected through the period. There may be patchy ground fog
overnight, mainly across the AR sites. Other than that, scattered
cumulus field will again develop by mid morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will strengthen over the area this week bringing
hot and humid weather, with little to no chance of rain. The ridge
will begin to shift east and weaken this weekend, which may allow
a weak front to move into the area by the end of the forecast
period. The ECMWF has sped up this frontal progression, but will
await later consensus before possibly introducing any pops earlier
than Monday.

Persistence plus a degree or so each day through Saturday looks
like the best temperature forecast, with guidance numbers not far
off from this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  98  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   72  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   70  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
F10   73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  95  74  96 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
AVIATION...06

CORFIDI



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