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000
FXUS64 KTSA 052157
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND WILL FOR THE MOST PART DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE VERY CONSISTENT HRRR ON THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL WITH MOST AMOUNTS AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 08-09Z. WHILE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...TEMPERATURES
BELOW 900 MILLIBARS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO COOL THIS LAYER
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS AN ALL LIQUID EVENT
SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR TOWARDS
SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
SOME PLACES BY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD FINALLY BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN A COLD RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A QUICK WARMUP WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY PUSHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO OCCUR AT
THIS TIME AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

GENERALLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKING MORE
REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  53  32  65 /  80  10   0   0
FSM   33  56  31  65 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   32  55  33  65 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   26  53  28  65 /  70  10   0   0
FYV   30  53  28  63 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   29  53  30  63 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   31  55  32  65 /  60  10   0   0
MIO   28  53  30  63 /  50  10   0   0
F10   30  55  34  65 /  80  10   0   0
HHW   33  56  32  65 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

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