National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 060251
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FROM NW AR
INTO SE OK...WITH A GRADUAL EROSION OF HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS NE
OK. MEANWHILE...CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS NW TX AS LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE LITTLE IF
ANY BREAK IN PRECIP ACROSS SE OK BEFORE PRECIP COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP EXPANSE ALONG AREAS NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER. THIS IS HANDLED WELL WITH CURRENT OVERNIGHT POPS.

PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN A BIT ERRATIC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SLEET HAVING ALREADY MOVED
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OK INTO NW AR. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
BAND CHANGED TO A ZONE OF HEAVY SNOW WITH QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF
2-5 INCHES OBSERVED ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM CONTINUES UNDERWAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SEBASTIAN AND LE FLORE COUNTIES. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD THE COLUMN COOLING AND THE FZRA ZONE SHIFTING
A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD...WHILE SLEET AND SNOW BECOME MOST
DOMINANT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE 00Z KFWD SOUNDING REVEALED THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS BY PUSHING THE COLD LAYER TOWARD -6 C BENEATH THE WARM
NOSE. THIS FAVORS A REFREEZE OF PRECIP TOWARD SLEET AND GIVEN THIS
THE ICE TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM PITTSBURGH/HASKELL/LATIMER
COUNTIES. ACCORDINGLY THE ICE STORM WARNING WILL BE ADJUSTED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   20  24   4  22 / 100  80  10  10
FSM   26  28   7  26 / 100  90  10  10
MLC   22  26   5  25 / 100  80  10  10
BVO   19  23   4  23 /  80  70  10  10
FYV   20  23   0  23 / 100  90  10  10
BYV   19  22   1  21 / 100  90  10  10
MKO   21  25   3  24 / 100  80  10  10
MIO   18  22   3  22 /  80  80  10  10
F10   20  24   4  23 / 100  80  10  10
HHW   27  29  10  30 / 100  80  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ072-
     OKZ076.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office