


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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354 FXUS64 KTSA 082328 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 628 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next week. The one drier day will be Thursday. - Limited severe potential today with locally damaging wind the primary threat. Also, a heavy rain threat will exist through this evening. - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range each of the next few afternoons. The warmest days will be Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Deep tropical moisture remains entrenched across the area with PWAT values above the 90th percentile (highest in SE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas). Numerous showers and thunderstorms formed along a boundary earlier north of I-40 and are steadily working south and east. These showers and storms resulted in locally significant rainfall and flooding in some areas earlier today. Showers and storms will slowly move out of the area the next few hours. However, they will remain capable of very heavy rainfall and may result in additional flash flooding. A few of the stronger storms could produce strong gusty winds. Isolated showers and storms may redevelop across the north this evening or tonight based on CAM guidance, but confidence in that is low given the convective overturning that has been observed. High temperatures today will reach the upper 80s to low 90s once again. Given recent rains, heat indices will exceed 100 F in a few places. Low temperatures will again fall into the low to mid 70s tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The upper level trough axis will begin to shift east Wednesday. There will still be sufficient moisture and instability, but forcing will wain. As a result, showers and storms are still expected, but coverage and intensity will be lower. The highest coverage will focus on the southeast portions of the forecast area. Afternoon highs will reach the low 90s with heat indices of 95-102F. Thursday and much of Friday will be dry as brief shortwave ridging builds in. Temperatures will rise a couple of degrees, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat indices, compounded by elevated dew points from recent rains, will reach 95-105F. Increased southerly breeziness may offset some of the apparent heat. Any break in the storm cycle will be brief as a trough digs into the central Plains late Friday, with a secondary wave Saturday into Sunday. With plentiful moisture returning to the area (PWAT near or above 2") and good instability, showers and thunderstorms will blossom. The most likely impact will be areas of very heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding. Stronger storms could also result in gusty winds. Limited wind shear will generally keep the severe weather threat to a more minimal level. Diffuse troughing will allow for daily storm chances going through at least the middle of next week. High temperatures will drop with the increased storm activity, generally in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A few storms may yet spread into portions of NE OK and far NW AR this evening with the early day convection likely stabilizing areas further south. Storm coverage expected to dissipate by late evening. Guidance remains consistent with areas of fog overnight with highest chances across far NW AR where periodic IFR could develop. Similar pattern continues on Wednesday though overall storm coverage expected to be less with somewhat higher chances across western AR terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 93 74 94 / 10 20 10 0 FSM 74 93 74 95 / 20 30 20 10 MLC 71 91 72 93 / 10 20 10 0 BVO 70 92 71 93 / 10 20 10 0 FYV 69 90 70 91 / 10 30 20 10 BYV 69 90 70 92 / 20 30 20 10 MKO 71 91 72 93 / 10 20 10 0 MIO 70 91 72 93 / 10 20 20 0 F10 71 91 72 93 / 10 20 10 0 HHW 71 90 71 93 / 20 30 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07