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000
FXUS64 KTSA 252201
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRIGID COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH FROM KANSAS TONIGHT.
FRONT REACHING ABOUT TO  I-44  AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TO  RED RIVER IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHORTLY BEFORE
DAWN.  POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS OF 20-25 WITH GUST
TO AROUND 35 MILES AN HOUR. WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 10
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THURSDAY MORNING.  FLURRIES
MAINLY HIGHER HILLS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND..INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

H500 MB TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN B.C. COAST TONIGHT
WILL DROP SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN...REACHING SOUTHERN
CA BY 00Z MONDAY.  THIS ACTION WILL BRING MOISTURE
AND  WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY  SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE LATE SATURDAY / SATURDAY
NIGHT  NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA  AND  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING
WILL TURN PRECIPITATION INTO RAIN.

MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF H5 SYSTEM
WHICH IS STILL MAINLY OVER PACIFIC WATER. FORECAST
IS NOW A CONSENSUS BLEND WITH MUCH MORE DETAIL AND
SPECIFICITY TO BE ADDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   23  29  11  27 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   26  35  16  30 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   25  32  14  28 /  10  10   0  20
BVO   21  27   8  25 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   21  27   8  26 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   22  27   8  23 /  20  10   0  10
MKO   23  30  13  28 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   21  26   8  24 /  20   0   0  10
F10   24  30  13  27 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   24  34  16  31 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....21