Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 272302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH MID AND HIGH OVERCAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY DURING THE DAY... WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING TO THE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS ON AREA RADAR DATA IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO OF SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND AN AREA
OF MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SUCCESSIVE DISTURBANCES INTO FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING A
GREATER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...LEADING TO
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





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