Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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202
FXUS64 KTSA 280848
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
348 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Occluded frontal system has pushed well east...with higher
dewpoint air suppressed into srn TX and through the Gulf coast
states. Expect a rather pleasant day...as the
northeasterly/easterly flow maintains the dry low-level airmass.

The front situated across TX will begin to lift north later today
as a warm front...and should stretch roughly west-east along the
Red River by late tonight. This will bring the higher dewpoints
farther north as well...with 55-60F dewpoints likely across
southern OK toward Friday morning. A strengthening low-level jet
along with improving isentropic lift will result in convection
along and north of the warm front...generally after 06z...with
the activity spreading into mainly east-central and southeast OK.
There will be some risk of hail with the elevated
storms...although better severe chances are expected to remain to
our southwest.

The degree of northward progression of the warm front remains in
question on Friday...but plan on leaning toward the ECMWF/GFS
solution of keeping the front near the Red River at least during
the early part of the day. Impressive isentropic lift will persist
through eastern TX into southeast OK...and we`ll need to keep a
close eye on the heavy rainfall potential especially over
southeast OK. Additional storms are expected during the day along
the eastward advancing dryline...and this activity will eventually
spread across the forecast area Friday evening/night as the
surface cyclone lifts into northwest OK and the dryline/Pacific
front surges east. Again the greatest severe weather threat looks
to stay mostly southwest of the forecast area...although this
could change if the warm front lifts farther north thus resulting
in a larger warm sector across parts of the forecast area.

Convection should be moving east of the area on Saturday as the
Pacific front eventually clears. Sunday is looking cooler and
dry...with low-end PoP returning early next mainly for the
southern half of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  57  75  60 /   0  40  70  80
FSM   83  60  75  63 /   0  30  80  80
MLC   81  62  75  62 /   0  60  80  80
BVO   74  54  74  57 /   0  30  70  80
FYV   78  54  71  61 /   0  10  70  80
BYV   77  54  71  60 /   0  10  70  80
MKO   78  58  74  61 /   0  40  80  80
MIO   74  55  73  60 /   0  20  50  80
F10   78  59  74  62 /   0  40  80  70
HHW   83  62  76  66 /   0  60  90  80

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18



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