Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 242335
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
535 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low clouds currently over Central Oklahoma will continue to
spread eastward this evening with ceilings falling to IFR
conditions overnight. Low clouds will likely hang around
through the day Wednesday with gusty south winds increasing.
For now, kept drizzle out of the Eastern Oklahoma TAF sites but
will continue to monitor latest guidance/trends.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015/
Low level moisture return is underway, and today is the last day
we will see the sun until next week. Some light rain or drizzle
may begin as early as Wednesday night, but significant rainfall
will hold off until Thursday afternoon and evening. A strong but
shallow cold front will move south across the area Thursday night,
but will slow and perhaps temporarily stall in the higher terrain
of far southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Widespread rain
and isolated thunderstorms will occur on both sides of the front,
with the rain tapering off from north to south Friday afternoon
Another surge of rainfall will move back over the area late Friday
night and Saturday. The main upper system will not move into the
Plains until late Sunday or Monday, so a few showers will remain
possible through that time. Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 8
inches will be likely, so either a flood watch or a flash flood
watch will likely be required within the next day or so. At this
time, it appears temperatures will remain above freezing across
all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with wintry
precipitation remaining to our west and northwest.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.