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000
FXUS64 KTSA 152320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  67  44  61 /  10  10  10  60
FSM   35  65  42  67 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   37  67  43  66 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   33  69  40  58 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   32  61  37  63 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   32  61  38  64 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   36  66  41  63 /   0  10  10  50
MIO   36  66  40  61 /  10  10  10  50
F10   37  66  43  63 /   0  10  10  50
HHW   35  65  42  67 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18