Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 222112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ROUND 2 OF THE PRECIP IS ONGOING OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITHIN
THE WARM CONVEYOR OF THE UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY ATTM. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS THIS BAND OF RAIN
FROM SE/E CNTRL OK UP INTO NW AR THIS EVENING SO POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED FOR THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP MAINLY IN THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...MORE OR LESS MOIST ADIABATIC THRU
THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE. THIS HAS VERIFIED IN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THAT PEAKED THIS MORNING HAS
WANED COMPLETELY OVER E OK/NW AR. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...NOT SURE IT IS WORTHY OF
ISOLATED STORM MENTION AND THUS HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST
TO MERGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS EVOLUTION IS UNDERWAY...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG LOW-
MID LEVEL COLD FRONTOGENESIS AND QG LIFT WILL FOCUS A BAND OF
PRECIP FROM NE OK INTO NW AR...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE KS
AND MO BORDERS. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM SHOWING 500-800 J/KG OF MUCAPE. HAVE
THROWN IN THUNDER MENTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED
ON THIS DATA. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES US BY...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY THRU DAY 7.

MILD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THEN TEMPS WILL TAIL OFF TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARMING
TREND MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A SHALLOW COLD SURGE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THANKSGIVING WEEKEND TRAVEL STILL LOOKS OK BASED ON TODAY`S
DATA.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  64  35  55 /  50  50  20  10
FSM   55  71  39  55 /  80  50  10  10
MLC   57  68  37  58 /  80  20  10  10
BVO   55  64  34  54 /  50  70  20  10
FYV   54  66  34  49 /  80  70  50  10
BYV   53  65  35  49 /  80  80  50  10
MKO   55  67  35  54 /  70  40  30  10
MIO   54  65  34  51 /  70  80  50  10
F10   55  66  36  56 /  80  30  20  10
HHW   57  71  38  59 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




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