Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 172313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
613 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

An area of rain and scattered thunder continue across much of
region this evening. Best thunder chances will remain at KMLC for
the first few hours of the TAF period...with brief MVFR cigs and
vsbys accompanying thunder. As this area of precip exits from west
to east later this evening...another complex developing to the
southwest will approach the eastern OK TAF sites late tonight.
However this complex is expected to weaken as it
at this time will only include a VCTS mention for the NE OK sites
for a few hours beginning in the pre dawn hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to impact
parts of northeast OK and northwest AK this afternoon. This
activity has an obvious tropical tap on water vapor imagery...with
plume of moisture from tropical storm Norma stretching through TX
into OK. Localized rainfall amounts around 1-2" have occurred so
far. The rain-cooled air has resulted in a well-defined
outflow/differential heating boundary rough along the I-40
corridor...and we`re monitoring recently developed strong
convection near this feature. The atmosphere is quite unstable and
rather meager shear suggests that strong/severe winds will be the
main threat...along with some hail. This activity should begin to
weaken this evening with the loss of heating.

Short term models continue to show additional convection
developing to our west overnight...and making a run toward the
forecast area. Confidence isn`t overly high with this
scenario...and any activity would likely be weakening as it
reaches our area. Have maintained low chance PoPs...mainly for
northeast OK/northwest AR. Any leftover boundaries should
dissipate or lift north later Monday as southerly flow returns.

The upper pattern will become increasingly amplified by mid-late
week as a deep longwave trof develops across the western states.
Modestly increasing mid-level heights/temps should generally keep
convection at bay...with any synoptic boundaries remaining to our
west. Aforementioned trof will make some progress east going into
next weekend...and have kept low end PoPs in the forecast for now.




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