Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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070
FXUS64 KTSA 261133
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered areas of MVFR conditions will be possible across parts
of Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas this morning.
Otherwise...ongoing scattered to broken mid/high clouds are
expected to continue through the majority of the TAF period over
the CWA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible this afternoon/evening over the CWA and will carry VCTS
and prob30 groups for all TAF sites as specific timing/locations
remain uncertain. Periods of MVFR conditions could be possible
within any thunderstorm activity.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very messy and overall low confidence forecast for the next
several days. Moist and weakly capped airmass over the region will
allow for random thunderstorm development over the next few days,
along with the usual development near boundaries laid out from
previous convection, all of which are nearly impossible to predict
with any precision in advance. Have leaned toward the middle
ground for the pop forecast. The silver lining in all of this is
that temps will be relatively cooler and some areas will pick up
rainfall, some locally heavy. Still looks like a NW flow setup for
the latter part of the week and into the weekend. MCS activity is
possible near a frontal boundary, mainly across the northern
areas.

Mid level heights rise over the heart of the country next week,
suggesting that the proverbial faucet will shut off again, for
now. A return to hot and dry typical summer weather is expected.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  74  90  75 /  50  20  50  40
FSM   93  76  92  76 /  50  20  50  40
MLC   93  73  92  73 /  50  20  50  40
BVO   88  70  90  70 /  50  20  40  40
FYV   89  70  88  70 /  50  20  50  40
BYV   88  72  88  70 /  50  20  50  40
MKO   91  74  91  73 /  50  20  50  40
MIO   89  71  91  72 /  50  20  40  40
F10   91  74  91  73 /  50  20  50  40
HHW   94  75  95  74 /  40  20  50  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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