Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. COLD/CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT A FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AFOREMENTIONED AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER MO/AR WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. THIS HOWEVER WILL DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OFF THE FAR SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTIES OBVIOUSLY REMAIN THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





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