Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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273
FXUS64 KTSA 110243
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
843 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A surface low pressure...produced mainly by thermal rather than
dynamic processes...was centered over NE OK this evening. The low
will continue to shift south overnight into Thursday morning.
Winds will be light and variable overnight and will then shift to
a northerly direction on Thursday as the low shifts south. Since
the low level thermal ridge is getting suppressed to the south and
west of our area...highs will be considerably cooler than today
across E OK...and fairly similar to today across W AR.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A weak front will cross the area in the next 12 hours and result
in a wind shift to the north.  No significant weather is expected
with the front and VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions teetering on the edge of critical
thresholds in some locations west of U.S. Highway 75 this
afternoon, but so far the wind speeds have remained less than 20
mph with a few gusts pushing 25 mph. Basically, about as close as
you can get to Red Flag criteria without actually meeting it with
temps 65-70 and RH 20-25%. At this time we do not anticipate any
upgrade from Fire Wx Watch to Red Flag Warning as no significant
increase in wind speeds is anticipated, though spread rates still
require extreme caution.

A weak cold front will push through later tonight with a shift to
north winds for Thursday, resulting in a modest cool down to
afternoon highs near normal. Temps will then rebound some on
Friday ahead of a much stronger Canadian cold front, which will
move into northern areas Friday afternoon and the rest of the area
Friday night. The brunt of the coldest air will remain to our
northeast, however as warm advection kicks in late Saturday and
early Sunday, expect light precip to develop. Expected thermal
profiles support some winter precip across far northeast OK and
northwest AR through Sunday morning before airmass warms enough
for all rain by afternoon. No significant impacts are expected at
this time, but there will be a window of opportunity for some
light icing roughly FSM-BVO north. Better forcing arrives later
Sunday across southern areas, thus the best chance of significant
rainfall looks to be south of I40 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Still appears a return to much above normal temps will take place
next week upper ridge builds across the central U.S.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   34  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   38  59  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  50  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   32  53  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  47  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   35  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   28  47  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
F10   36  55  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   39  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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