Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231107
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Sfc winds gusts to 25-30 kts late morning at most TAF
sites...especially across the NE OK sites. Otherwise...VFR
elements will prevail through the TAF period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm/windy conditions today ahead of the much advertised
upper wave which will impact the region on Friday. Although low
level moisture will begin to increase today, the gusty winds will
create an elevated fire danger threat, especially along/north of
I-44.

As the upper wave approaches from the west late tonight,
scattered showers/thunderstorms will begin to develop across
eastern Oklahoma around sunrise. Thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage/intensity through the day as convective line
sweeps through far southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by
mid to late afternoon. Although instability is expected to remain
marginal, wind profiles suggest a damaging wind threat with the
stronger storms/bow segments.

Fire weather may also become a concern by late afternoon as the
dry line moves to near Highway 75. Gusty southwest winds at 25 to
30 mph expected west of the dry line with RH values falling to
around 25 percent. This is also the area that will receive the
least amount of rainfall from the morning storms. Depending on dry
line position, there still could be a few severe hail producing
storms across NE OK/NW AR Friday evening into the overnight hours
in association with main upper low.

Focus shifts to Sunday as another strong upper wave moves out of
the four corners region. Still some subtle model differences
concerning the exact track of system and how quickly low level
moisture will return during the day Sunday. The GFS is most
aggressive, increasing dewpoints into the lower 60s across southeast
Oklahoma by late afternoon. This would allow moderate instability
to develop ahead of the dry line, setting the stage for strong to
severe thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening.
In addition, surface winds may remain slightly backed across
southeast Oklahoma with the GFS wind profiles/hodographs
supporting the threat for tornadoes with any right moving
supercells. The overall severe threat will continue to be refined
going into the weekend.

Sounding like a broken record, another strong upper level low will
move out of the desert southwest around mid week with the potential
for additional rounds of storms during the Wednesday/Thursday
time frame. It appears that the spring severe weather season has
arrived.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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