Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 300448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO ALL SITES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANYING
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LOW TRACKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST TO A POSITION A LITTLE SOUTHWEST OF HOT
SPRINGS BY 06Z. THE AREA OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OKLAHOMA BY 06Z AND ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE
ONGOING RAINFALL RATES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER
HOUR RANGE...WHICH GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
LOW AREAS OR POSSIBLY WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING.

WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...WE PLAN TO LET THE CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRE AND REISSUE A LARGE AREAL FLOOD
WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUE HIGH WATER.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL KEEP STORM CELLS MOVING...ANY QUICK
SHOTS OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD BE BRUSHED BY A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN TEXAS TOWARD MORNING.

WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA WIDE FOR TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO EXPIRE PARTS OF THE WATCH EARLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06





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