Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 020453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TEMPO
GROUPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY PRECIP.
ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  93  72  86 /  20  50  60  50
FSM   75  92  75  83 /  20  50  70  70
MLC   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
BVO   75  90  68  85 /  20  40  50  40
FYV   73  86  68  80 /  30  50  60  70
BYV   74  87  67  81 /  50  50  60  60
MKO   73  91  72  83 /  20  50  70  70
MIO   75  89  66  84 /  30  40  40  50
F10   75  90  72  81 /  20  50  70  70
HHW   72  91  73  80 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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