Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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