Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS NE OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FULLY MAKE A RETURN TODAY TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...LEADING TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AND A FAIRLY MINOR INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD /ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY/ AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT SATURDAY...BEHIND A
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...
BEFORE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN IN THE AREA.
REGARDING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THAT THESE VALUES WILL GO
UP IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE SOME OF THE TIMING AND AREAL DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  57  78  62 /   0  10  40  70
FSM   78  56  79  58 /   0  10  20  50
MLC   77  57  77  62 /   0  10  20  60
BVO   76  53  76  60 /   0  10  50  70
FYV   74  50  74  55 /   0  10  20  60
BYV   74  52  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
MKO   77  55  77  60 /   0  10  40  70
MIO   76  55  75  59 /   0  10  30  60
F10   76  56  76  61 /   0  10  30  70
HHW   77  56  77  61 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





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