Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 202040
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
340 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Outflow from storms to the east will likely get into Carroll
County before stalling.  The level of free convection is a
few thousand feet higher today as compared to 24 hours ago.
So the chance for thunder this evening on the boundary and
in terrain seems small... but not zero.  So we will have
low chances in parts of northwest Arkansas into the evening.

Remnants from earlier convection are moving northeast from
central Oklahoma.  The higher LFC and the lack of a focus in
northeast Oklahoma should preclude any development.  So for
this potential we have not include any rain chances.  The
evening shift will monitor.

Mid-level moisture from the area of the current convection in
Louisiana and east Texas will stream into southeast Oklahoma
and western Arkansas late tonight and Monday.  This should
result in an up-tick in storm chances in these areas...especially
during peak heating.  Did lower the 18Z temp tomorrow across the
are due to the eclipse.  Later shifts maybe able to use the
HURRRX to better understand any eclipse-based temp trends.

A cold front will begin to work into the area on Tuesday...taking
until late Tuesday night to get south of the Red River.  Showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the front, with the most vigorous
storms Tuesday afternoon and night.  Heavy rainfall will be
likely at many locations, especially along and southeast of I-44.
The axis of heaviest rain may be along I-40.  Max average rainfall
should be 1.5 to 2.5 inch range in the zone of the heaviest, but local
amounts could approach 5 inches where the most prolonged thunderstorms
occur.  The best rain potential should have ended north of I-40 by
Wednesday morning, and shift beyond southeast Oklahoma during the
day on Wednesday.

The current heat advisory will be allowed to expire this evening.
Heat index values for tomorrow will be in the 100 to 104 degree range
in much of the area.  This is just below criteria.  So we will not
issue for tomorrow and let later shifts evaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  90 /  10  20  20  60
FSM   75  92  74  92 /  10  30  20  40
MLC   76  92  76  92 /  10  20  10  30
BVO   75  94  76  88 /  10  10  30  60
FYV   73  89  73  86 /  10  30  10  60
BYV   72  91  73  83 /  20  10  20  60
MKO   74  93  75  91 /  10  20  10  50
MIO   74  91  75  86 /  10  20  30  60
F10   74  92  76  91 /  10  20  10  50
HHW   75  91  75  91 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....08



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