Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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891
FXUS64 KTSA 161032
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
432 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the day and into the evening
hours, with low clouds, reduced visibilities, and rain expanding
northward from late evening through the rest of the night. MVFR
conditions will be most likely, but some potential for IFR
ceilings exists as well, especially at MLC toward sunrise
tomorrow and within any heavier showers. Gusty south to southwest
winds will develop late morning and continue through sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fire danger will be on the increase today as gusty southerly winds
develop and afternoon humidities fall into the 25-35 percent
range. Cloudiness will begin to increase from the south by mid to
late afternoon as an upper level storm system begins to lift
northeast from northern Mexico into the southern Plains. This
system will spread widespread light rain across the area this
evening and overnight, but amounts will remain on the light side.

Any lingering rain will be ending early Sunday, but clouds may
remain rather stubborn, which will keep temperatures a bit cooler
than today, but still above normal for mid December.

The mild weather will continue through the middle of next week,
with temperatures running 10-20 degrees above the seasonal normals
for both daytime highs and overnight lows. A second upper level
storm system will move across the area Tuesday night, and models
are converging on a much wetter scenario with this system than
previously indicated.

A strong cold front is still expected to move south across the
area Thursday, with a cold arctic airmass following in its wake.
Dry weather looks to prevail Thursday and Friday, but the
potential for wintry precipitation may begin to increase just
beyond the range of this forecast. The various long range models
have shown very little consistency with the evolving pattern next
weekend and beyond, so confidence remains low on any possible
winter weather impacts heading into Christmas weekend.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....22



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