Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 250445
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN  OVER EASTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IT IS A GOOD
RADIATION COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO LOWS REACHED THIS MORNING SO THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CLOSED MID-
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER DO NOT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS, SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HAVING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOP WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT WITH
THIS APPROACHING WAVE, WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SOME SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION MAY POP-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL JUST BE MOVING OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIKELY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE
EAST, AND HAS IT BACKBUILDING INTO MISSOURI KEEPING SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP JUST WEST OF THE AREA.  THE GFS, ON THE OTHER
HAND, HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA PUSHING THIS
SHORTWAVE OVER ILLINOIS. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COMING
WEEKEND AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS STAY
IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING UP INTO THE HIGHER
80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

WILL KEEP A TEMPO AT TOP FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE RIVER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HELLER/HENNECKE
AVIATION...67


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