Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 020820

National Weather Service Topeka KS
320 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A positive tilt upper level trough extended from the upper Great
Lakes southwest into northeast NM. The weak upper trough will
translate east across KS into MO by late this afternoon. A more
amplified upper level trough will dig southward out of south central
Canada into western NE by 00Z TUE. There may be weak enough ascent
ahead of the weak positive tilt upper trough for a few showers this
morning and into the early afternoon hours across northeast and east
central KS. The isolated showers should end during the late
afternoon hours across east central KS. Skies will be mostly cloudy
through the morning hours, then become partly cloud from west to
east across the CWA through the afternoon hours. Highs will once
again be cool with lower to mid 60s.

The upper level trough across western NE will fill as it digs
southward into western KS and OK. At this time the stronger ascent
ahead of this upper level trough will remain west and southwest of
the CWA, so I expect the night to remain dry with rain showers
moving south-southeast across western KS into western OK. overnight
lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

On Tuesday, the upper positively tilted trough will continue to
progress towards the eastern CONUS as a weak surface low moves
across northeast Kansas.  Best moisture with this passing feature
resides west of the area keeping conditions dry with partly cloudy
skies.  As upper ridging and surface high pressure advance towards
eastern Kansas, skies clear and high temperatures begin to gradually
increase through Saturday.  The next chance for rain and storms
arrives Saturday night with an expansive upper level cut off low
residing over the Four Corners region.  Ahead of this wave and
surface low pressure, rain and thunderstorm chances begin.  With
only a gradual progression of this large scale feature through
Monday, PoPs continue through the end of the period.  Highs over the
weekend still remain warm near the mid 70s and lower 80s, with lows
near 60.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

For the 06z TAFs, expect MVFR cigs to prevail through much of the overnight
hours for KTOP/KFOE. However, some periods of low-end VFR cigs
will be possible into Monday morning before fully improving to
VFR cigs for the remainder of the TAF period. There still is some
model uncertainty with when exactly these ceilings will improve
from MVFR to VFR conditions. Some isolated to scattered showers
will be possible late morning through early afternoon near
KTOP/KFOE as a weak wave passes over the region, so have the
mention of VCSH. Otherwise, winds will remain out of the north and
northwest through the period.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.