Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 171749 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Light winds and mostly clear skies have combined with a moist
boundary layer to bring the onset of patchy fog across portions of
the forecast area.  Convection in western Kansas on a decreasing
trend, with some remnant high clouds moving over the western
counties.

For today, not anticipating widespread dense fog, but would
anticipate for patchy dense fog in low lying areas and along bodies
of water. Anticipate will burn off in the mid morning hours. Mixing
to around 875mb should yield highs in the middle 80s NE to the
lower/middle 90s in our far west counties.  The next chance for
precipitation rolls off the high plains late this afternoon and into
the north central counties near midnight and moves east into the
early morning hours.  Think Kansas will be on the southern fringes
of this activity so will carry isolated to scattered coverage after
midnight.  Generally 1000j/kg or less of elevated instability
available, but with nearly 40kts of bulk shear, could see a strong
storm or two across our far northern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

On Monday a strong shortwave will track over the northern plains and
upper Midwest. A front will be slow to progress through the forecast
area and will eventually stall out over the area. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible especially in the afternoon along and
south of interstate 70 depending on the exact timing and location
of the front. The southern extent of the shortwave trough axis may
provide additional lift along the stalled out front Monday night
bringing another round of precip. Most of the area will stay dry
during the day Tuesday as the front lifts back north towards the
NE/KS state line. The models suggest a weak shortwave will move over
NE Tuesday night increasing the potential for isentropic lift north
of the front. As of now slight chances brush up against far northern
KS with the bulk of the precip occurring in NE.

By Wednesday the upper ridge begins building over the northern Gulf
and Mid South allowing the area to become under the influence of
southwest flow aloft. The GFS and GEM continue to advertise
shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow will track somewhere
over the plains each bringing a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the late week. Towards next weekend another
front looks to approach the region. Summertime heat will remain for
the entire forecast period with highs generally in the 90s and
potentially low 100s especially in central KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Vfr conditions will continue through 00Z/18 only sct stratocu
around 3500-4000ft. Beyond 00z...light easterly winds and mostly
clear skies initially may allow for some mvfr vsbys in patchy fog
at KTOP from 09z-13z...otherwise feel slightly better mixing at
KFOE/KMHK through the period and the arrival of some mid level
clouds by 13z lowers confidence in fog potential at those sites
through 12z/18 and fog potential at all sites beyond 13z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63






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