Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 191133
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
533 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Northwesterly flow aloft has returned over the Central Plains,
behind the upper trof now over the east coast. Surface high pressure
over the southern into central plains has brought light westerly
flow over eastern Kansas, and coupled with clear skies temperatures
have fallen into the upper 20s to low 30s.  For today, the high
plains lee trof develops by late afternoon, with southerly winds and
warm advection over our area.  Highs rise into the middle 50s to
near 60, with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows should hold in the
middle to upper 30s as these southerly winds keep some mixing in the
boundary layer overnight.

Afternoon relative humidities drop into the middle 20s in our
western counties, but light winds should help keep fire danger in
check.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Northeast Kansas lies between high pressure to the southeast and a
trough to the northwest on Monday.  Gusty winds and some WAA will
allow highs to reach into the low 60s.  The aforementioned surface
low moves a dry front across the area Tuesday, which does little
except to drop temperatures into the 20s overnight and the 40s on
Wednesday.  Thanksgiving Day will still be mostly clear skies, light
winds, and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.  An upper-level
northwest flow regime continues through the end of the period with a
few impulses seen in the flow.  Ahead of a front on Friday, highs
are on the warmer side possibly reaching into the mid-60s.  A front
moves through Friday night, but no precipitation is expected leaving
the extended period completely dry for the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Light west winds
become southwest and increase a bit in speed this afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...67


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