Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 141150
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
550 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR conditions this morning are expected to persist into the
afternoon hours for much of Northeast Oklahoma...while persisting
through the day for Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A
surface boundary moving through the region along with an upper
level wave approaching will allow for light areas of rain/drizzle
for Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today. Some light
freezing rain/drizzle could be possible this morning for
FYV/ROG/XNA sites. Periods of IFR conditions could also be
possible within any precipitation. Overnight...VFR conditions are
forecast for Northeast Oklahoma...while MVFR should remain for the
rest of the CWA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The dry low-levels are winning out so far this morning...with the
atmosphere being very slow to moisten. HRRR and RUC both suggest
that light precipitation won`t develop into the forecast until
beyond 12z...and it`s still looking like the deeper valley regions
of Carroll...Madison and Franklin counties will experience the
main impact from any light icing. Have opted to extend the winter
weather advisory until 18z...with temperatures warming above
freezing by early afternoon. Afternoon temperatures across the
remainder of the forecast area will be highly dependent on amount
of clearing...and have nudged highs down a few degrees over the
previous forecast.

The main story for next week will be an impressive warming
trend...especially toward the end of the week. A weak boundary
should work into the region by Tuesday beneath the northwesterly
upper flow...but still expect afternoon highs to reach the 60s in
most locations. The big warmup comes by Thursday and continuing
into Friday as strong south to southwest winds develop. Will
continue to go at or above the warmest guidance numbers...with
current forecast highs for Thursday near record levels.
Temperatures should moderate some going into next weekend...but
still remain well above seasonal norms. Have kept the forecast dry
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  37  65  44 /  30   0  10  10
FSM   48  37  63  39 /  50  20  10  10
MLC   54  38  65  42 /  30  20  10   0
BVO   55  33  64  34 /  20   0  10  10
FYV   43  31  60  35 /  50  10  10  10
BYV   41  32  59  36 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   49  36  63  38 /  40  10  10  10
MIO   49  33  61  38 /  30   0  10  10
F10   54  37  65  40 /  30  10  10  10
HHW   60  45  67  42 /  20  50  20   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020.

&&

$$

AVIATION...20


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