National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WET AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A FLAT MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES OVER THE PLAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LARGE MCS OVER SOUTHWEST TX IS
SPREADING HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS OVER OK AND AR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COOL EASTERLY WIND PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTH AND WEST
SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH INTO KS THIS
MORNING. WITH NO APPRECIABLE FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLAY TODAY I
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP MOST AREAS. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING
A WEAK UPPER LOW OR POSSIBLY A REMNANT MCV FROM THE MCS DOWN SOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTH OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY LOW
END POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AND THE TRANSITION TO
A SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE UNDERWAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND DEEP
LAYER THICKNESSES INCREASE...SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED. THE CAP STRENGTHENS EVEN FURTHER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DRYLINE STAYS WELL WEST...AND WE WILL
REMAIN DRY.

SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE PLAINS. AN EXTENDED UPPER JET LIES OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THIS JET WILL TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC OCEAN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL EVENTUALLY DIG AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS OVER FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office