Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 261451
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
951 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.UPDATE...

Some small tweaks were made to cloud cover and high temps today,
mainly across northeast Oklahoma. See discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The mid level ridge has become elongated zonally, due to shortwave
trof energy traversing across the northern tier of states. Upper
air data at 12Z this morning showed only meager height falls over
OK/AR and balmy 500mb temps of -3/-4C. Convection was ongoing
across northern KS closer to the low level baroclinic zone. High
clouds or convective cloud debris are spreading anticyclonically
out of Kansas and down into northeast Oklahoma, and should
continue to do so for several more hours as the convection
persists across northern Kansas. For this reason, high temps have
been lowered slightly up near the Kansas border. However, this
will not affect the going heat headlines. Will need to monitor
portions of NE OK for possible upgrade to an excessive heat
warning with forecast afternoon heat indices expected to flirt
with the 110 degree range. Another hot and humid afternoon is in
store. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, however.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 541 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Isolated
thunderstorms may move into parts of northeast Oklahoma after
06z, with BVO the most likely terminal to be affected. Potential
impacts are below mentionable levels at this time, however.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 244 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The late July heat continues...with low-level thermal fields
suggesting temps about 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday. Could
push excessive heat warning criteria in a few spots this afternoon
but will keep the ongoing heat advisory at this time.

Combination of retrograding upper ridge and shortwave dropping
into the Great Lakes region will send a cold front into the region
by Thursday. Favoring the slightly slower front progression of the
ECMWF...so have adjusted the heat advisory farther north up to
about Highway 412 in northeast OK. Shower/thunderstorm chances
will increase late in the day and into the overnight hours as a
mid-level wave swings through the forecast area. A few strong
storms will be possible...although the better chances of severe
weather should remain east of the region. Precipitation chances
shift farther south into southeast OK by Friday as the front
slowly dips into far north TX.

Drier low-level air will overspread the area for the weekend along
with cooler morning lows and afternoon highs. Northwesterly upper
flow will persist into next week...with temperatures likely
remaining a bit below climatological norms. The GFS is looking
overly aggressive with a shortwave and associated precip for
Monday...and will keep the early week forecast dry at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  81  97  74 /  10  10  30  40
FSM   98  77  99  78 /  10  10  20  50
MLC   96  79  98  76 /  10   0  20  30
BVO   98  78  94  71 /  10  20  30  30
FYV   94  75  92  72 /  10  10  20  50
BYV   95  76  92  72 /   0  10  20  50
MKO   95  77  97  75 /  10  10  20  50
MIO   96  78  93  72 /  10  20  30  30
F10   96  78  98  75 /  10   0  20  40
HHW   96  77  99  77 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053-059-060-
     064>067-070>076.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     OKZ068-069.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>058-061>063.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30


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