Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
742
FXUS64 KTSA 201057
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
557 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the period, with a possible
exception being this morning across W AR. Satellite does show some
patchy low clouds in the region, closest to KFYV and KFSM.
Inserted some scattered low cloud groups in the TAFs, but
confidence wasn`t high enough to warrant a TEMPO group attm. Will
monitor and amend if needed. South winds will be gusty by mid
morning, gusting in the 15 to 25 kt range. Winds will subside by
evening. There is potential for an isolated storm near a frontal
boundary that will be off to the NW of KBVO this evening.
Potential at this point is too low to mention in the TAF at this
time however.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface analysis shows cold front extends from just west of
Salina to Guymon. Front will make southward progress across the TX
Panhandle, but not much eastward progress. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary, but
the greatest coverage will likely be across northeast Kansas into
northern Missouri. The combination of weak convergence, warm
temperatures aloft, and weak large scale lift suggest that most
convection stays north of Oklahoma. Thermal ridge will extend from
southwest Oklahoma through southeast Kansas, and in this zone,
temperatures may climb a degree or two higher than yesterday. It
shouldn`t be quite as windy, though. Heat index values will
approach advisory criteria, with max indices from 100-103.

Front lifts back north of the area on Thursday, and the heat and
humidity will be around right through the weekend. Upper pattern
will be dominated by large upper trough in the west and upper
ridge in the east. Shortwave trough will finally begin to move
east by Sunday, sending a cold front east across the northern
Plains Monday. The front won`t arrive here until Tuesday, and with
it, the next chance for showers/storms. Temperatures behind the
front will be closer to climatological norms, but until then,
highs will be 5-10 degrees above normal and mild lows in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  76  92  73 /   0  10  10   0
FSM   94  74  92  73 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   93  75  91  73 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   94  74  93  71 /   0  10  10   0
FYV   89  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   90  70  89  69 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   93  73  93  71 /   0  10  10   0
MIO   92  74  90  72 /   0  10  10   0
F10   94  75  91  72 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   92  74  91  71 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.