Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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843
FXUS64 KTSA 311744
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 18Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered storms will affect or will be in the vicinity of the
TAF sites during the forecast period. Attempted to give a more
favored timing at each of the sites...knowing that this may change
and will have to be amended. Guidance indicates that fog may
reappear again in NW AR toward dawn Wed morning...and this was
included in the TAFs. There`s also an indication of some MVFR cigs
for the NE OK sites around dawn.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Complex of storms, which formed in association with the synoptic
front, were affecting NE OK this morning. These storms weren`t
well resolved by the numerical guidance. The latest couple runs of
the HRRR have finally latched on to this...and will use the theme
of its forecast for the remainder of today. Given the effects of
the morning storms...looks like the better chances for afternoon
storms will be along and south of I-40 and have adjusted pops in
that direction. If trends continue further adjustment will be
made. The evening hours look quiet...before more storms develop to
the south and west and eventually track into parts of the area
after midnight.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VLIFR vsbys/cigs will prevail across nw AR for a brief period
this morning...with MVFR cigs occurring briefly at the remaining
TAF sites. Cigs to lift to VFR by afternoon...with increasing MVFR
cigs tonight as TSRA chances continue for the latter portion of
the TAF period...and will be covered with prob groups at all sites
after 06z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor imagery detected an upper cyclone
across the northern Plains...with convection extending along a
weak front from MN into southwestern KS. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase today...especially during the afternoon...as
the aforementioned cold front makes slow progress east. Increasing
instability this afternoon will be supportive of a few strong
thunderstorms...although the overall weak bulk shear should
preclude organized severe weather. That said...still could see
sporadic severe thunderstorms...with large hail and damaging
winds being the main threat. Thunderstorm chances will remain on
the high end into Wednesday as the weak cold front and a mid-level
shear axis linger across the forecast area.

As a weak upper low ejected out of the southwestern states...with
associated shear axis is expected to shift a little farther south
by Thursday into Friday. The higher PoPs are expected across
southeast OK into western AR during this timeframe...with rain
chances trailing off by Saturday.

Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop late this weekend
into early next week...with several days of drier weather along
with seasonal temperatures.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  64  77  62 /  50  70  70  20
FSM   85  67  80  66 /  50  60  70  60
MLC   82  64  76  63 /  80  70  70  40
BVO   81  62  77  61 /  40  70  60  20
FYV   81  62  77  61 /  50  60  70  60
BYV   81  62  78  61 /  50  60  70  60
MKO   83  64  77  62 /  50  70  70  40
MIO   81  62  78  61 /  50  70  70  20
F10   81  64  76  62 /  50  70  70  30
HHW   84  66  78  66 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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