Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 212333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all northeast Oklahoma TAF sites
with some light fog possible late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Cloud cover is expected to exit the western Arkansas TAF sites over
the next few hours with IFR fog developing late Tonight into Wednesday
morning. Conditions will improve mid-morning on Wednesday at the
western Arkansas sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 207 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

Upper low centered over Arkansas continues to make slow eastward
progress, eventually taking the cloud cover along and east of the
Oklahoma/Arkansas line with it. As the clouds move out late
tonight and early tomorrow, areas of fog are likely to redevelop
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Will forgo an
advisory at this point, but one may eventually be required.

Even warmer temperatures are on tap tomorrow as winds shift to the
south and southwest. Wind speeds are likely to remain in the 10 to
15 mph range, which will limit the fire weather concerns somewhat,
despite the temperatures and very low relative humidities.

Thursday will feature the greatest fire weather concerns, with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s in most locations and
southwesterly winds gusting 25 to 30 mph in advance of an
approaching cold front. Current forecast relative humidities are
just below Red Flag criteria, but given the dry fuel state, it is
possible that they will be low enough to lead to a warning at some
point anyway.

The aforementioned cold front will move through Thursday night and
into Friday, with temperatures behind it nearer to normal Friday
and Saturday. Winds shift back to the south and southwest Sunday,
which will lead to a fast warmup into the early part of the next
work week. Shower and isolated thunderstorm potential will
develop Sunday night and into Monday, continuing into mid week,
as a large trough moves into the western United States.




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