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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260249
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
849 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE...ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AROUND 8 PM. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT OKLAHOMA MESONET TEMPS
SHOWED SOME RISE IN TEMPS JUST BEHIND IT. THIS IS DUE TO THE
DISRUPTION OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS EFFECT WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY...AS THE COLD
AIR LAGGING BACK UP IN KANSAS WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE TOPPED 40 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT... ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRIGID COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH FROM KANSAS TONIGHT.
FRONT REACHING ABOUT TO  I-44  AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TO  RED RIVER IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHORTLY BEFORE
DAWN.  POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS OF 20-25 WITH GUST
TO AROUND 35 MILES AN HOUR. WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 10
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THURSDAY MORNING.  FLURRIES
MAINLY HIGHER HILLS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND..INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

H500 MB TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN B.C. COAST TONIGHT
WILL DROP SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN...REACHING SOUTHERN
CA BY 00Z MONDAY.  THIS ACTION WILL BRING MOISTURE
AND  WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY  SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE LATE SATURDAY / SATURDAY
NIGHT  NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA  AND  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING
WILL TURN PRECIPITATION INTO RAIN.

MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF H5 SYSTEM
WHICH IS STILL MAINLY OVER PACIFIC WATER. FORECAST
IS NOW A CONSENSUS BLEND WITH MUCH MORE DETAIL AND
SPECIFICITY TO BE ADDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   23  29  11  27 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   26  35  16  30 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   25  32  14  28 /  10  10   0  20
BVO   21  27   8  25 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   21  27   8  26 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   22  27   8  23 /  20  10   0  10
MKO   23  30  13  28 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   21  26   8  24 /  20   0   0  10
F10   24  30  13  27 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   24  34  16  31 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30