Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 021115
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gradually lowering ceilings are expected throughout today...but
are expected to remain above VFR levels through most of the
forecast period. Light rain should begin to spread into southeast
OK by around 00z and continue increasing to the north and east
through 12z Friday. MVFR ceilings possible late in the period at
MLC and possibly FSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One more dry/mild day as upper low digs across southern California
into northern Baja region. As southwest flow aloft continues to
strengthen ahead of low areas of light rain will likely spread
into southeast Oklahoma late tonight and across the remainder of
the area during the day Saturday. Rainfall amounts will generally
be light however a few locations across southeast Oklahoma could
receive between a half to one inch, especially near the Red
River.

A weak cold front will push through the region on Sunday as a
fast moving upper trough swings through the central/northern
plains. Precipitation chances will once again increase on Monday
across southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas as main upper low
finally lifts out of northern Mexico.

Very strong cold front expected mid week with some of the coldest
air of the season likely Thursday/Friday as arctic air-mass
settles over the central/eastern CONUS. Still some uncertainties
concerning the exact timing of front on Wednesday which will
greatly impact high temperatures. GFS is the most progressive
with front with temperatures falling through the day compared to
the slower ECMWF. There is the potential for snow to develop
behind the front across NE OK/NW AR Wednesday into Wednesday night
although, at this time, the heavier accumulations appear to remain
just north into SE KS/SW MO. Very cold/blustery conditions
expected Wednesday night with wind chills falling into the single
digits by Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  40  48  38 /  10  50  60  60
FSM   63  45  47  43 /   0  60  80  70
MLC   60  43  47  41 /  10  80  90  60
BVO   55  40  48  37 /  10  40  50  50
FYV   59  39  47  38 /  10  40  70  70
BYV   58  37  45  36 /   0  20  70  60
MKO   58  43  46  40 /  10  60  70  60
MIO   56  39  50  38 /  10  20  50  50
F10   56  43  46  40 /  10  70  70  60
HHW   62  45  48  44 /  10  90  90  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14



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