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000
FXUS64 KTSA 092257
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS AT KFSM WILL LIFT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS AR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE FULL TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM SOME VERY STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA AND
MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...A MUCH NICER DAY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUN AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS INITIALIZED WELL IN THE NAM
LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS AND WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING
TONIGHT...STILL ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
AND LEAVE ALL AREAS WITH A CLEAR AND COOL START TO MONDAY MORNING.

ABOVE MENTIONED SW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP MONDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SPREADS EAST. ALREADY
WARMING INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TEMPS OF THIS MAGNITUDE OR BETTER APPEAR LIKELY COURTESY OF
MODERATE DOWNSLOPE SFC WIND. WHILE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLD...TEMP
AND RH WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS IN PARTS OF EASTERN OK BY AFTERNOON
AND THUS...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY
LATER SHIFTS.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RH LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER
BY THAT TIME AS SHALLOW MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SPREADS NORTH.
WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL LIMIT OVERALL
QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN TUESDAY...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY WILL POOL ALONG FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIMITED THREAT OF THUNDER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. SHARPLY COLDER
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY
EVENING WITH FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN SOME AREAS. FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WRAP AROUND REGIME BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM...MAINLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS.

TEMPS WILL RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23