Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 161120
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Areas of fog will persist for a short time this morning impacting
mainly KFYV and KFSM with at least temporary IFR conditions
through about 14z. MVFR ceilings have reached as far north as KMLC
at present, and will continue to gradually spread north over the
remainder of eastern OK in the 18-21z time frame, and by 00z
across western AR. Some lowering of ceilings will occur later
tonight with some areas of eastern OK likely seeing IFR ceilings
by the end of the forecast period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Low level flow will veer to more southeasterly today allowing low
level moisture to spread back north across the area. An increase
in cloudiness will be the result, especially this afternoon. A few
light showers will be possible tonight into Friday morning as the
moisture deepens somewhat.

Veering low level flow to the south southwest by Friday afternoon
will scour out much of the moisture, especially in the western
part of the forecast area, and temperatures will warm to well
above normal levels as a result. Fire danger will also be on the
increase Friday afternoon, particularly in the western part of the
area.

A cold front is still on schedule to sweep rapidly southeast
across the area late Friday night. Strong and gusty northwest
winds behind the front will maintain the high fire danger Saturday
across the entire forecast area.

After a chilly night Saturday night, temperatures will be within a
few degrees of the seasonal normals from Sunday into the middle
of next week. The ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS with
another cold front towards the middle of next week, and will lean
towards the ECMWF solution with this forecast, resulting in
slightly cooler temperatures by next Wednesday.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  57  79  52 /   0  20  20  10
FSM   65  53  76  57 /   0  20  20  10
MLC   64  58  77  56 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   63  54  79  49 /   0  20  20   0
FYV   62  49  71  53 /   0  20  20  10
BYV   62  50  71  54 /   0  20  20  10
MKO   64  56  77  54 /   0  20  20  10
MIO   63  54  74  50 /   0  20  20  10
F10   63  58  79  54 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   65  58  78  58 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.....14



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