Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 240242
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
842 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions continue to slowly improve after a record-
setting day in the temperature department, including a February
record 88 degrees in Fort Smith, and a tie for the 3rd warmest Feb
day in Tulsa at 86 (which incidentally was set a mere 12 days
ago). Temps still in the 70s in most areas at 8 PM, but
substantial airmass change is not far away as strong cold front
currently stretches across northwest OK through central KS. Front
passage will be marked by abrupt shift to northwest winds with
speeds likely to increase again for several hours. Narrow
corridor of enhanced lift associated with compact mid-level wave
moving across western KS has produced some light radar returns in
past hour just north of the border, but mainly with ceilings
above 10 kft. Expect most of this to remain to our north and given
very dry low level airmass, not likely to see anything at the sfc
besides sprinkles. Will also see increase in post-frontal low
clouds in northern areas later tonight.

Updated forecast will be out shortly, mainly to increase clouds
and wind speeds later tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 536 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty south winds will diminish some this evening...ahead of
the approaching cold front that should push through 08-12Z.
Areas of MVFR cigs will be possible behind the front...mainly
for the northeast OK and northwest AR TAF sites. Gusty
northwest winds will kick up by Friday morning and into the
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
After a day of record warmth...one of the warmest February days on
record in Tulsa for the 2nd time this month...big changes are on
the way. A cold front will sweep across the area overnight
bringing temperatures back to near or even slightly below normal
for the next couple days. Fire danger will remain a concern Friday
despite the cooler temperatures due to breezy west to northwest
winds.

A warming trend will begin Sunday, but there are significant model
differences beginning as early as Sunday and continuing into next
week. The GFS is much more bullish than the ECMWF/UKMET/GEM with
an upper wave, resulting in widespread precipitation and the true
warm sector getting suppressed to our south. Will follow much
closer to the majority, with lower precipitation chances, and much
warmer temperatures heading into early next week. Tuesday may be
another day of heightened fire weather concerns as gusty south
winds occur ahead of the next cold front. The ECMWF suggests
temperatures Tuesday may get out of hand again, but for now will
temper them somewhat due to uncertainty. This front will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night,
with some threat of severe weather. Temperatures will then fall
back to more seasonable levels by the middle of next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  55  25  51 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   50  64  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   45  60  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   41  53  23  50 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   47  57  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  59  24  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   46  58  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   45  53  23  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   44  57  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   50  66  31  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14


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