Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 230458
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cigs overnight likely to mostly remain MVFR...with brief IFR
cigs possible...especially across the SE OK/NW AR sites.
Window for rain and thunder chances will be confined to the early
to mid morning hours across SE OK and WC AR with chances from mid
morning to early afternoon across remaining sites further to the
north. Southerly winds will also become more established once the
warm front has passed from south to north...and mixing should
help scatter clouds out by afternoon with VFR conditions
prevailing for the last several hours of the TAF period at all
sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 920 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
High pressure remained common across the Gulf Coast states this
evening...while a shortwave was positioned over Southeast
Colorado. Between these two features...across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...southwesterly mid/upper level flow continued
to transport moisture back into the region. This moisture
interacting with a weak surface boundary just south of the Red
River allowed for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over parts of far Southeast Oklahoma. Across
the rest of the CWA...increasing dewpoints and cloud cover were
observed.

Overnight tonight...high pressure is expected to expand slightly
to the northwest toward the region while the shortwave over
Southeast Colorado slowly shifts eastward into the Central Plains.
The tightening of the pressure gradient between these two features
over the Southern Plains will allow for an increase in the low
level jet overnight. These conditions combined with increasing
warm advection will create a shower and thunderstorm potential
remaining overnight across the CWA.

Also overnight...with low level moisture spreading northward over
the CWA...increasing dewpoints and cloud cover are anticipated. By
early morning Tuesday...dewpoints near/in the 70s and mostly
cloudy skies look to be common over the CWA. Thus...for the
evening update...have made minor adjustments to pops/wx and added
minor tweaks to temps/sky/dewpoint/wind grids for the overnight
hours based on current trends and the mentioned above.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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