975
FXUS64 KTSA 110537
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

   - Isolated showers and storms possible northwest of Interstate
     44 this afternoon. Heat index values from the upper 90s to
     near 105 expected this afternoon.

   - Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend
     with potential for locally heavy rainfall.

   - An active weather regime continues into next week with daily
     thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Hot and humid conditions will prevail again today, with afternoon
heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees in
most places, and actual air temperatures in the low to mid 90s. A
few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon northwest of Interstate 44 as a weak cold front approaches
from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will become more likely tonight through
the weekend with the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area and
a weak upper trough moving across the area. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible in some places with slow moving storms, along with
the potential for a few marginally severe storms, with damaging
winds being the main severe weather threat. Temperatures will be
below normal over the weekend due to all the clouds and rain.

Shower and storm coverage will diminish next week, but not
completely go away. Added sunshine will push temperatures back up
closer to the seasonal averages. Another frontal boundary will
approach the area by Wednesday or Thursday leading to another
uptick in shower and storm coverage and a slight drop in
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period.
Increased south/southwest winds slightly from previous forecast,
with occasional to frequent 20 to 25 knot gusts beginning as early
as mid-morning and through the afternoon at most TAF sites.
Otherwise, anticipate few to scattered mid-level and upper-level
clouds through the period. An isolated shower or storm could
develop near the OK/KS border late in the period. Decided to
include a PROB30 group at BVO reflecting this chance. Better rain
and thunderstorm chances are expected beyond this TAF period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  86  70 /  10  50  70  50
FSM   96  76  91  73 /  10  20  50  30
MLC   93  75  88  71 /  10  20  60  50
BVO   94  71  86  68 /  20  60  60  40
FYV   93  71  87  68 /  10  30  60  40
BYV   93  72  88  68 /  10  30  60  40
MKO   93  73  86  70 /  10  30  70  50
MIO   93  71  86  69 /  20  60  60  40
F10   93  73  86  70 /  10  30  70  50
HHW   93  74  91  72 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67