Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 220212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
912 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Unseasonably dry air over ern OK and nwrn AR this evening with high
pressure centered over srn MO at 01z. Deep moisture is not that far
away with surface dewpoints in the 70s across srn AR and ern TX.
Mid/upper level cloud shield extends across far sern OK into central
AR this evening. Clouds will increase across sern OK and west
central AR overnight but dry air and light wind will result in strong
radiational cooling until the clouds roll in. Nern OK and nwrn AR
will remain mostly clear overnight with much of the area again
falling into the 50s. High resolution models suggest precipitation
chances near zero overnight across sern OK. Thunderstorm chances
increase on Monday from south to north as boundary over nrn TX
returns northward with very moist (00z SHV raob indicated 2.11" pw)
and slightly unstable air spreading northward. Ongoing forecast
trending well so no updates planned at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 554 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

VFR conditions to prevail at all sites through 06z...when at
that time fog potential will increase across parts of NW AR.
Periods of MVFR vsbys overnight with brief VLIFR vsbys and LIFR
cigs possible at KFYV between 09z-13z. For the latter half of the
TAF period...VSBYS and cigs to improve to VFR across NW
AR...however larger scale....deeper moisture will return north.
VFR cigs likely to develop across KMLC and KFSM from mid to late
morning on...and continue for the remainder of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

Lower dewpoints and clear skies will allow another night of
seasonably cool temps...with precip chances increasing from south
to north Monday through Tuesday as a warm front lift through the
area accompanied by a minor wave passing over the region.
Dewpoints returning into the upper 60 to low 70 degree range will
overspread the region and likely persist through much of the
forecast period ensuring a return to muggy and warm overnight
lows. High temps will be held slightly lower by cloud cover Monday
through Tuesday with a return to near normal values Wed -

A weak frontal boundary will move into the region Wed night into
Thursday with little to no cooling influence. The boundary may
serve as a focus for diurnally driven convection for a few days
while it gradually loses definition. Additionally deeper moisture
looks poised to rotate northward off the Gulf by late week which
will also maintain the chance of daily thunderstorm potential.


.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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