Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251105
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL INITIATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WIDESPREAD... LIKELY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL SITES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FROM ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON... LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A LOW
AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE REGIME TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH A DEEP TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A PIECE OF ENERGY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A
PACIFIC FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY...GENERATING
SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE PROCESS...HAS STALLED ACROSS SE OK AND W
CNTRL AR THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND
CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES DOWN TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE INITIAL
CELLS MAY BE DISCRETE...AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST 06Z HRRR...AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN STAY IN A REGION OF
BACKED LOW LVL FLOW NEAR THE FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED AS THE POLAR FRONT MAKES ITS
MARCH TOWARD THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. A MULTICELLULAR BAND IS MORE
LIKELY WITH THIS ROUND...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK AND NW AR. RAPID
PRESSURE RISES AND THE RESULTING ISOLLABARIC FORCING MAY GENERATE
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A WEAKENING BAND OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING THE AREA BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT BANDED PRECIP DUE TO MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG THE NW FLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES TO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER REACHING THE 80S YESTERDAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TODAY IN SOME
SPOTS...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A QUICK WARM UP IS
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WHILE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT DUE
TO DIFFERENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. THUS...PREFER TO KEEP
RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOWER END UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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