Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 202318
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
618 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A back door front will slowly work its way into the region on
Tuesday, bringing about a wind shift to the northeast for the NE
OK/NW AR TAF sites. Latest short term time-height moisture plots
do not agree with the pessimistic statistical guidance, which
forecast MVFR cigs on Tuesday at the aforementioned sites. Will
follow the lead of the previous shift, keeping cigs (if they occur
at all) VFR until a more clear signal in the data can be
achieved.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
As of early this afternoon, several temperature records have
already been broken including Fayetteville, AR and McAlester, OK.
A few other locations are just a degree or two away from nearing
their records. This unseasonably warm spell will continue into
through tomorrow before returning to near normal values for
Wednesday. However, warmer temperatures return the latter half of
the week.

Surface trough and cold front will move southward into area tomorrow.
Depending on how quickly the front moves in will determine highs,
especially along and north of Hwy 412 where a somewhat sharp
temperature gradient will develop as the front nears. A few
showers and thunderstorms may develop ahead of the front tomorrow
afternoon and evening.

The cold front will continue to move southward with cooler, near normal,
temperatures for Wednesday before stalling near the Red River
Valley. These cooler temperatures will be short-lived as cold
front lifts north as a warm front Thursday and return flow
establishes itself.

Models continue to remain in agreement with bringing an upper trough
through the southwestern US and then across southern KS/northern
OK before lifting towards the Ohio River Valley. Main concern with
this system will be the lack of instability the models are
forecasting. Best instability axis remains well south of the area,
however, with decent shear profile expected, there is still a
good chance for strong to severe storms as the line moves through.

Cooler temperatures move in behind the trough, but still above
normal for the weekend. The long-term pattern is looking a bit more
progressive heading into early next week with several rounds of
precipitation expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  80  49  61 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   59  86  54  62 /  10  20  30  30
MLC   62  85  57  69 /   0  10  20  30
BVO   56  74  46  59 /  10  20  20  30
FYV   58  79  48  56 /  20  30  40  30
BYV   58  75  45  52 /  20  30  50  30
MKO   60  84  53  63 /  10  10  30  30
MIO   57  74  47  55 /  20  30  30  30
F10   61  84  54  66 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   60  85  58  72 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30


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