Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 150513
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1213 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 841 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Strong to severe storms continue across southeast Oklahoma into
west-central Arkansas this evening in the vicinity of an outflow
boundary. This activity will continue over the next several hours
with something of a weakening trend already noted. Area of most
concern is across far southeast Oklahoma where the airmass has
not been worked over. Heavy rain and the flash flood threat will
continue for the next several hours as well as storms continue to
train across the same areas. The overall chances of showers/storms will end
overnight as a cold front currently working across northeast Oklahoma
sweeps through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Relatively quiet conditions are expected through the rest of the
forecast period after the stormy day today. Cooler, but still near
average temperatures for this time of year are expected for
tomorrow behind the frontal passage, with gusty northerly winds
throughout the day dying off somewhat by sunset. Cool overnight
lows are forecast with some of the normally cooler locations
dipping into the mid to upper 30s by Saturday morning. A brief
warmup is expected on Saturday as subtle mid level ridging builds
into the area and temperatures rise to near 70 across the region.
A weak disturbance will move across northern Texas Saturday night
and a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the Red
River Saturday night. Severe weather is not expected with this
system. By SUnday, the mid level flow become much more amplified,
with northerly flow aloft ushering in another, stronger cold front
through the region on Sunday. this frontal passage is expected to
be dry as any appreciable moisture remains rather limited, but
much cooler temperatures will follow for Sunday night into
Monday. Mid level heights slowly rise into the middle part of next
week as an upper low meanders around the Desert Southwest and
deep mid level troughing settles in over the Southeast CONUS,
keeping our weather fairly quiet and mild through the rest of the
period. The upper low that will have been parked over the
Southwest for the better part of a week may finally get swept up
into the primary flow aloft and move out over the Plains by late
week, bringing more rain and storm chances to the region.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

RA/TSRA has pushed east of all the TAF sites as of 05z.
Winds behind  the front will gust from the north with a
few gusts around 20kts mainly between 12z-00z. A period of
MVFR cigs is also expected after 09z-11z with conditions
improving to VFR by late morning or early afternoon with
VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the period.
winds will relax between 00z-01z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   69  44  71  50 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   67  43  69  49 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   67  37  70  43 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   64  38  70  44 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   61  39  68  46 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   64  41  67  48 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   62  38  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
F10   64  42  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   67  46  69  51 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23


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