Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 151048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS E OK/NW AR WILL NOT CAUSE AN AVIATION
IMPACT THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NE OK JUST BEFORE 00Z...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED TSRA LIKELY LIMITED TO BVO/TUL/RVS. WILL CONTINUE THE
VCTS FOR THAT THREAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FG AND IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THIS FRONT BY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22





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