Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 200800
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... CREATING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER... FAIRLY GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE... WITH A WIDESPREAD HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE OUR NEXT TROUBLEMAKER BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  60  75  53 /  40  80  70  30
FSM   79  59  74  56 /  20  60  80  40
MLC   77  60  73  57 /  30  80  70  30
BVO   80  59  76  51 /  40  70  60  20
FYV   75  56  71  53 /  20  50  90  40
BYV   77  55  72  52 /  10  40  90  50
MKO   78  59  74  55 /  30  80  80  30
MIO   79  59  73  51 /  20  60  70  20
F10   76  60  74  55 /  30  80  70  30
HHW   77  60  74  59 /  20  50  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....06





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