Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 270909
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
409 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low moving across the Rockies this morning will gradually
slide east into the central plains through tonight, with an
associated increase in synoptic scale forcing during the day
today. pair of convective complexes moving across Texas this
morning fueled by wave within subtropical jet, with western
complex showing signs of northward expansion as has been suggested
by hi- res models. Expect this trend to continue through the
morning with showers and thunderstorms spreading into southeast
around 12z and points farther north and east into early afternoon.
Instability may be somewhat limited but shear will be enhanced by
negative tilt trough passing to our north, thus some severe threatwill
be maintained with these storms. Dry line will remain to our west
and additional storms likely to fire along it during the afternoon
in weakly capped environment. Severe threat with these storms as
they move east will depend on how much recovery can take place
after early storms.

Upper low will continue to lift northeast Saturday with mid level
heights gradually rising, but moist and unstable airmass will
remain in place. Cap appears stronger with any forcing remaining
subtle, thus thunderstorm chances considerably lower. Remainderof
the forecast period will be characterized by unstable and weakly
capped environment resulting in daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  67  85  67 /  70  50  20  20
FSM   79  68  85  68 /  80  60  30  20
MLC   79  68  84  67 /  80  50  10  20
BVO   78  64  84  62 /  70  60  20  20
FYV   75  65  81  63 /  80  60  30  20
BYV   76  65  81  63 /  80  70  30  20
MKO   77  67  83  66 /  70  60  20  20
MIO   78  65  82  63 /  70  60  30  20
F10   79  67  84  67 /  70  50  10  20
HHW   78  70  86  69 /  80  50  20  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.