Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 261143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
643 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings overspread the region this morning...cigs will
continue into the afternoon...lifting to VFR and possibly scattering
out by late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
affect the area around 23Z...with ceilings and visibilities
reduced to IFR/MVFR categories within storms. VFR categories
return to ERN OK sites around 06Z...and 08z-09z across the AR
sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A significant severe weather event will unfold late this afternoon
and persist into the overnight hours. Tornadoes will be
possible...especially during the evening hours...along with very
large hail and damaging winds.

Closed mid-level upper low across the southwestern states
continues to dig in the near term...with 90+kt jet noted along
southwestern periphery of system this evening. Lee cyclogenesis is
well underway...with dryline currently arcing across southwestern
KS...to near the TX/OK border and into southwestern TX. The
atmosphere ahead of the dryline is impressively moist...with
surface dewpoints currently running in the 65-70F range.

The dryline will mix slowly east today and is expected to be
across western OK by this afternoon. Destabilization in the warm
sector should be impressive...with MLCapes around 3500-4500 J/KG
ahead of the dryline. Despite less than impressive convergence
along the dryline...the arrival of a 60-70+ mid-level jet and
impressive height falls should lead to convective development
around the 20-22Z timeframe along and just west of the I-35
corridor...with storms likely arriving in the western portions of
our forecast area around 23-01Z per latest HRRRX output. Discrete
supercells will be possible with the initial activity during the
evening hours...with convection becoming more widespread by late
evening and into the overnight hours as the strong height falls
overspread the region and storms shift farther east into eastern
OK and western AR. The severe weather threat will come to and end
late tonight as storms shift farther east into AR.

Whatever is left of the Pacific front/dryline doesn`t completely
clear the region on Wednesday...and some redevelopment of
thunderstorms isn`t out of the question later Wednesday afternoon
across western AR and adjacent areas of far eastern OK.

Thursday will offer a brief break from the storms...although the
pattern quickly becomes unsettled again Friday and into the
weekend as the next upper low ejects into the Plains. The southern
half of the forecast area will have the best chance of seeing
additional showers/thunderstorms on Friday...although the severe
weather threat should remain a bit south of the area. Storm
chances continue into Saturday and perhaps early Sunday as active
southwesterly flow persists.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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