562
FXUS64 KTSA 301952
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
252 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

   - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today as a weak cold
     front moves into the area, with a limited severe weather
     threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

   - Daily isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
     expected much of the rest of this week with locally heavy
     rains, downburst winds, and lightning being the primary
     hazards.

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of this week
     with heat indices generally 95-103 F across the area. Some
     minor relief will briefly occur on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Low to medium shower and storm potential will persist into this
evening as a weak cold front moves through the region. Any ongoing
storms will become increasingly restricted to southern portions of
the forecast area before weakening tonight. Primary hazards will
continue to be damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rain
leading to flash flooding. Consistent with the HREF, most precip is
expected to have dissipated or exited the forecast area overnight
with gradually clearing skies. Following the front, low temps
will likely be a few degrees cooler than previous nights...
especially for northern portions of the area... generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The post-frontal airmass will influence temperatures and heat
indices Tuesday and Wednesday, with dewpoints falling into the 60s.
Resulting high temperatures and associated heat indices may struggle
to exceed 90 degrees tomorrow for much of NE OK and NW AR. There
won`t be quite as much relief in SE OK and W-Central AR though,
where the HIs could still climb into the mid to upper 90s. There may
be a few showers or isolated storms tomorrow, mainly across SE OK or
W-Central AR, but most locations are likely to stay dry under high
pressure. As the sfc high shifts east Wednesday, southerly flow will
begin to return to the region, providing increasing temps and
moisture through the end of the week. This will keep daily PoPs in
the forecast through the extended period, but with the expectation
that most locations stay dry on any given day through Friday. Heat
indices will also climb back into the 95-105F range as we head into
the holiday weekend.

By Saturday, an upper trough is projected to be moving off of the
Rockies and into the plains states, though there is disagreement
regarding how this will influence rain potential for our area. For
now, NBM PoPs seem reasonable with slight chance to chance category
for much of NE OK and NW AR. The pattern appears to remain unsettled
into early next week with additional rain and storm chances.
Precipitation may could impact temperatures this weekend into next
week, primarily if the wetter scenario plays out. But overall,
expect high in the 90s to persist with heat indices generally
remaining in the upper 90s/ lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Scattered storms this afternoon across SE OK into west central AR
will be the near term aviation impact. A gradual shift southward
through the afternoon should lessen impacts at KMLC and KFSM with
time. Further north the overall coverage of any storms is expected
to remain too low to warrant mention. Convection wanes after
sunset. Potential for patchy fog and/or low ceilings to develop
along the slow moving cold front with highest chances of impacts
across NW AR and fcst will introduce potential for lower flight
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  71  88  68 /   0  20   0   0
FSM   93  73  92  72 /  20  40  20   0
MLC   93  71  90  69 /  20  40  10  10
BVO   90  67  88  64 /   0  20   0   0
FYV   89  69  88  65 /  10  20  10   0
BYV   90  69  87  64 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   91  71  88  68 /  10  30  10   0
MIO   89  69  86  65 /  10  20   0   0
F10   91  70  88  68 /  10  30  10  10
HHW   93  72  91  72 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07