Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 242310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA. NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES
MAY EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAINFALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY ACTIVE FORECAST...DESPITE ONLY A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIP...THE FIRST OF WHICH BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO TOMORROW. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. AN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST AREAS DRY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...BUT PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...NEAREST THE STRONGEST
UPPER SUPPORT...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER TOWARD
SUNRISE AND INTO THE REST OF SUNDAY. BESIDES THE SMALL RAIN
CHANCES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...DRIER AIR...AND MUCH
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SINCE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS
/LIKELY GUSTING IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE/ AND THE DRIER AIR WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL COVER THE THREAT...WITH TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTH LIKELY TO BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

THE COLDER /IN A RELATIVE SENSE RATHER THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL ONE/
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY WILL
AID IN A QUICK WARMUP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK OF
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES...WITH SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LIKELY TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND
THE WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SET FOR
THURSDAY...ATOP THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY MAY KEEP THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WARM
NOSE FROM BEING REALIZED. OVERALL...WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY SHOULD COME THROUGH
DRY...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS POINT IS ABOUT ALL THAT IS CERTAIN ABOUT THAT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD...WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN HOW TO
TREAT A SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO CLOSED LOW
LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPS ITS TREND OF SHOVING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO ITS STRONGER THURSDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS TREND OF ALLOWING SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR REMAINS INTACT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH ITS TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE A BIT WARMER. THE
DGEX HAS BOTH THE STRONG COLD AIR FROM THE ECMWF AND THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM THE GFS. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
GEM SEEMS TO NEGATE THE DRY ECMWF. SO AS YOU CAN SEE...LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. FROM WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW...IF
PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
INCREASING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT NEXT WEEKEND/S FORECAST TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO KEEP WATCHING FOR UPDATES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06




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