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000
FXUS64 KTSA 161048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS AT ALL SITED
THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG SOUTH WINDS MIX TO SURFACE...WITH GUSTS
OVER 25 KNOTS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARMER DAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE THE ONLY TWO
COUNTIES WITH THE RED FLAG SWITCH STILL ON. IT APPEARS THAT THE
WINDS MAY DROP OFF JUST ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO KEEP
CONDITIONS JUST BELOW RED FLAG BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND ERODE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND HAVE ALSO
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ072-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14