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000
FXUS64 KTSA 072128
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT AND RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR CENTERED
OVER SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALIZED WELL BAY MOST RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH BRING THE SYSTEM EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NE
KANSAS INTO TX PANHANDLE WITH COLDER AIR LAGGING BEHIND. FRONT
WILL SWEEP INTO NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER 09Z AND ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. MOST RECENT DATA NOT
OFFERING ANY BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH SWATH OF LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPING EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH OF I-44 AND
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN
REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP
SOMEWHERE NEAR OK/KS BORDER DURING THE DAY. THIS JUSTIFIES
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST AREAS ROUGHLY I-40 NORTH...LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS WILL FALL SHARPLY BY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OK AND EVENTUALLY TURN COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON
ELSEWHERE. WHILE NAM REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN COOLING THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM ABOUT BVO-SWO NORTH...JUST
A VERY COLD RAIN ELSEWHERE. SFC TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT
ANY ACCUMULATION OF ICE HOWEVER AND STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING A LITTLE TOO WARM
TO SUPPORT WINTER WEATHER BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
STAY TO OUR NORTH MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW AREAS COULD PUSH 80 IN
FACT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE WITH THE
MAJORITY OF DATA WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...AND WILL
KEEP WITH SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BACK UP
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  40  27  57 /  20  90  20   0
FSM   42  54  38  54 /  10  80  40  10
MLC   45  47  31  55 /  10  70  20   0
BVO   35  36  23  57 /  30  90  20   0
FYV   39  49  28  54 /  10  80  40   0
BYV   37  49  28  53 /  10  80  50   0
MKO   42  46  30  55 /  10  80  20   0
MIO   38  39  25  55 /  20  90  20   0
F10   43  43  28  56 /  10  70  20   0
HHW   44  55  37  55 /  10  70  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....14