Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
532 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low clouds and patchy fog persist across the area this morning.
Visibility has recently improved at KMLC...but for all the other
sites...we will continue IFR/LIFR ceilings for the next several
hours with light flow and trapped boundary layer moisture.
Conditions should improve to MVFR ceilings or better at
KTUL/KMLC/KRVS and maybe KFSM by early/mid afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main points of interest in the forecast this morning are: 1)
Morning fog and afternoon shower (maybe a lightning strike or
two??) chances this afternoon, 2) fire weather concerns Friday,
and 3) weekend rain chances.

A cool and moist boundary layer is in place over the region this
morning. Looking at the latest obs, some places have reduced vsbys
but not down to what would be considered dense. Widespread stratus
over the region may limit how widespread and how thick the fog
will get this morning. Given the uncertainties, I have elected to
maintain patchy fog mention and not issue any headlines.

The elongated upper low that has been situated to our west and
southwest over the past couple of days will finally get a move on
as jet energy punches in from the Pacific and acts as a kicker.
The upper cold core will move overhead late this afternoon and
into the evening. Dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50 beneath
500mb temps of around -20C will yield some low CAPE given the
steepening lapse rates. The latest runs of the HRRRX show shower
development across NE OK after 00Z and would not be surprised to
see a lightning strike or two.

Stronger south winds will return on Friday as the first of the
progressive systems on the nose of the strong Pacific jet moves
into the Plains. Temps are expected to warm much above average in
the 60s to near 70 as well. The warm temps and stronger winds
will raise fire weather concerns. The fire danger will be limited,
however, by higher relative humidities and not overly strong winds
forecast.

The second progressive system on the nose of the upper jet will
make a run at the Plains on Saturday. This system will take a more
southern track and will have access to better moisture, unlike the
Friday system. There will be good rain chances for our area on the
north side of the circulation, and there is isolated thunder
potential with low end instability forecast. The best chances for
rain will be Saturday night into Sunday morning. The low will be
moving quickly east in the upper jet stream flow, thus rain
chances will come to a quick end by the end of the day Sunday. QPF
amounts with the fast moving system suggest there will not be any
flooding concerns with this system either.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  44  66  44 /  10  20   0   0
FSM   61  47  69  46 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   63  45  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   60  39  64  39 /  10  20   0   0
FYV   58  45  65  45 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   57  46  64  48 /  20  20   0  10
MKO   61  43  67  45 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   58  45  65  45 /  10  20  10   0
F10   62  43  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  47  70  48 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06

CORFIDI



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