Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220946
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
446 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF SEVERAL PRODUCING PRECIP OVER WESTERN OK
AT THIS TIME. PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WHILE CROSSING FORECAST AREA TODAY SO HIGHEST
POPS WEST AND LOWEST EAST. CHANCE POP TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH.

MUCH  STRONGER DYNAMICS  COME INTO PLAY  LATE SATURDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  WESTERN UPPER LOW SHARPENS
BACKING UPPER FLOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALES ONCE AGAIN IN 1.7 - 1.9
NEIGHBORHOOD. LOTS OF THUNDER...LOTS OF RAIN...LOTS OF
FLOODING ALMOST GUARANTEED GIVEN THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF
ABNORMALLY WET WEATHER. RIVER FLOODING AS WELL.

LONG TERM FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE RELIEF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  58  74  66 /  70  50  80  80
FSM   70  59  79  67 /  40  30  50  70
MLC   67  62  77  69 /  50  30  50  70
BVO   64  55  72  65 /  70  60  80  80
FYV   66  55  75  64 /  30  30  50  70
BYV   67  54  75  63 /  20  30  40  60
MKO   67  58  75  65 /  50  40  70  80
MIO   67  55  74  64 /  40  50  70  80
F10   64  59  74  66 /  60  40  70  80
HHW   69  61  79  68 /  40  20  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





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