261
FXUS64 KTSA 101738
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

   - Heat Advisory for parts of northeast and east central
     Oklahoma as well as west central Arkansas from 1 PM to 8 PM
     today. Afternoon heat indices 100 to 105 possible again Friday.

   - Isolated late afternoon showers and storms possible in mainly
     southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.

   - Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend with
     potential for locally heavy rainfall.

   - A more active weather regime continues into next week with
     daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Hot and humid conditions will persist into early this evening
with Heat Advisory continuing through 8 PM for parts of eastern OK
and west central AR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain
possible later this afternoon within slightly deeper moisture from
west central AR into southeast OK. Brief and isolated instances
of heavy rainfall are possible, along with some potential for
strong downdraft winds before convection wanes with loss of
daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Impacts of an upper level trough moving across the Central Rockies
will begin Friday as deeper moisture is drawn back northward in
response. Generally expect another hot and humid afternoon Friday
with heat indices again topping out in the 100-105 range for parts
of eastern OK and west central AR. By afternoon, modest height
falls spread east into areas near OK/KS border with some CAMS
indicating isolated development into areas W of US 75. Higher
chances of showers and storms though will be later Friday evening
as frontal boundary moves closer to the region.

Presence of this boundary and a slowly progressing trough will
maintain scattered to numerous showers and storms through the
weekend, with focus of coverage generally expected to shift
southeast with time. Precipitable water values analyzed over 2
inches currently across much of east TX will be drawn north,
likely pooling near the frontal zone, and enhance the potential
for pockets of heavy rainfall. While a widespread heavy rain event
is not expected, conditions will favor isolated amounts in the
3-5" range which would lead to localized flood potential. A few
damaging wind gusts will also be possible if more organized
clusters develop as upper trough passage leads to a modest
increase in deep layer shear.

Overall precip chances diminish some next week with weak ridging
in the wake of weekend system. Another and possibly stronger front
is forecast to move toward the region during mid to late next
week, once again raising shower and thunderstorm chances across
part of the area, and keeping temperatures a little below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Scattered to broken mid clouds are forecast into early evening
across the CWA before becoming mainly few to scattered high clouds
tonight. An isolated storm potential also exits this afternoon
mainly for southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. However, for now
will hold off on mentioning in the TAFs due to uncertainty of
coverage impacting any one terminal. For Friday, scattered mid
clouds along with the high clouds are forecast to redevelop. There
may be a brief period of MVFR ceilings as these mid clouds develop.
Winds through the period start out southerly, become light tonight,
and then become breezy out of the south to southwest Friday. VFR
conditions are forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  94  75  89 /   0  10  20  60
FSM   76  96  75  94 /   0   0  10  30
MLC   76  94  75  91 /   0   0  10  40
BVO   74  94  71  87 /   0  20  40  70
FYV   73  92  73  90 /   0  10  10  40
BYV   73  94  73  91 /   0  10  10  50
MKO   75  93  75  89 /   0   0  10  50
MIO   74  93  73  88 /   0   0  30  70
F10   75  93  75  89 /   0   0  10  50
HHW   75  93  74  92 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060-061-066-067-
     070>072-074.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20