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000
FXUS64 KTSA 161956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 THROUGH 600 PM.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THEN BECOME DIFFUSE INTO FRIDAY
WITH WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

NEXT UPPER WAVE STILL EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LIMITED WIND/HAIL THREAT. SHOWERS
/THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  64  46  72 /  10  60  10   0
FSM   41  68  48  74 /  10  30  20   0
MLC   44  66  48  72 /  10  30  10   0
BVO   39  61  41  72 /  10  60  10   0
FYV   36  64  41  70 /  10  30  20   0
BYV   37  63  43  70 /  10  30  30   0
MKO   42  66  46  72 /  10  50  20   0
MIO   39  64  42  72 /  10  50  20   0
F10   44  64  46  71 /  10  50  10   0
HHW   42  67  50  72 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12