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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201727
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all area TAF sites
through the valid period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1021 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is on track. Have only made a few adjustments to better
reflect current trends in observations and short-term model guidance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail. Any chance for afternoon and evening
convection remain too low for mention at specific terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Another typical hot August day in store to round out the weekend.
High temperatures look to be similar to yesterday with highs
topping out in the mid to upper 90s across much of eastern
Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Northwest Arkansas will be a
tad bit cooler with highs in the low to mid 90s. Evapotranspiration
rates continue to be rather impressive for this time of year
given the rather wet August the region has had thus far. This will
allow dewpoint temperatures to remain in the mid and upper 70s
this afternoon, making for another muggy day. The combination of
hot temperatures and high humidity will result in dangerous heat
indices in the 105 to 109 range again this afternoon. As a result,
the heat advisory for today has been expanded to include all of
eastern Oklahoma and portions of west-central Arkansas through
this evening.

Isolated to scattered storms will once again be possible this afternoon.
With low-level moisture positioned over the region and
instability axis of 2000-3000 J/kg and steepening lapse rates
through this afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a bit of
agitated cu by early afternoon. Any storm that does develop has
the potential for heavy downpours and gusty winds. Overall hail
threat looks low, but with a bit more flow than yesterday, hail
will also be possible. A few storm complexes could continue into
the overnight hours as low-level flow increases over the plains.

A cold front will drop south Tues/Wed period with increasing
chances for thunderstorms as it approaches. There is the potential
for another round of heavy rain as this front works its way
southward, however, it is still too far out in time to nail down
where the heaviest rain band may set up. Behind the front, cooler
and drier weather will end out the week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10