Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 030448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Skies continue to slowly clear across northwest AR this evening.
Latest hi-res data continues to support fog development across
mainly northwest AR, with at least periodic IFR conditions
between about 09-14z. VFR will prevail after that time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

There are more breaks in the cloud cover per recent satellite
trends. WV imagery shows a shortwave trough axis from central MO
to central OK moving east. Subsidence on the back side of this
system may be helping to break up the cloud cover. There may still
be some mid and high cloud from another potent PV max diving south
into Nebraska attm...but a sustained overcast sky is not expected
from this. Thus...am reluctant to adjust low temps very much at
all tonight given recent trends...since it will only take a few
hours for temps to drop when the clouds break.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low-end VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot range will continue to
clear out this evening. Areas of fog will likely develop across
mainly northwest AR per latest hi-res model soundings, with at
least periodic IFR conditions between about 09-14z. VFR will
prevail after that time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cool conditions this afternoon behind a strong cold
front which has now pushed well south into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Extensive cloud cover has kept high temperatures in
check, currently running 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time year. Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east overnight.
Could still see a few lingering low clouds across far northwest
Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure settles over the region during the day
Tuesday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Relatively quiet
weather pattern for the next several days, especially for early
May. Another weak boundary/wind shift will move through on
Wednesday however temperatures are still expected to warm into the
upper 70s over much of the area with dry/down-slope flow. Warming
trend continues through the latter part of the work week as
strong upper ridge builds over the central/southern plains.

Upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend as large upper
low shifts northeast into the intermountain west. Shower/thunderstorm
chances return Saturday night into Sunday as initial short wave
ejects ahead of main upper low.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14



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