Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 252345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
645 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will develop again late tonight and will likely
persist through most of the day Tuesday. South winds will become
gusty by Tuesday afternoon. There is a chance that thunderstorms
will begin to affect the northeast Oklahoma sites by the very end
of the forecast period, but will hold off on the mention of them
at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A few of the latest short term model runs of the HRRR have
isolated thunderstorms developing near boundary across far north-
central Oklahoma this afternoon. It appears from latest mesoscale
analysis that cap will be strong enough to suppress any convective
development however this will continue to be monitored. Slight
chance that a few elevated thunderstorms could develop overnight
across far northeast oklahoma/northwest Arkansas in low level jet
axis, however coverage is expected to remain isolated.

Significant severe weather event expected across much of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas starting as early as late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours. Models have
trended a little faster with upper wave, including thunderstorm
initiation Tuesday afternoon. Dry line will set up near the I-35
corridor with SBCAPES in excess of 4000 J/KG developing across
a large portion of eastern Oklahoma as moisture rich gulf air
continues to surge north.

As upper level speed max shifts into the region by late afternoon,
thunderstorms will likely develop along dryline and push into
portions of northeast oklahoma by late afternoon and at the latest
early evening. Forecast point soundings during this time support the
potential for supercells with all modes of severe weather likely,
including the potential for a few strong tornadoes. The greatest
tornado threat will be late afternoon/early evening near peak
heating with any isolated supercells that initially develop/move
into northeast Oklahoma.

Severe thunderstorms will likely continue to increase in coverage
across eastern Oklahoma during the evening hours, spreading into
northwest Arkansas by late evening as wind fields continue to
increase.  A tornado threat will likely continue with this activity
although may transition more to a damaging wind threat depending on
the overall thunderstorm coverage and other storm scale interactions.
Regardless, as mentioned earlier, a widespread significant severe
weather event is anticipated for much eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Primary severe threat will diminish late Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning as main convective line shifts east of the
region.

There is still a limited potential for a few isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms along dry line Wednesday afternoon/evening
across far E OK/NW AR as steep mid level lapse rates develop in
association with upper low to the north. Primary limiting factor
will be that forcing will become weaker as low level wind fields
begin to veer Wednesday afternoon.

Brief break in the weather expected on Thursday before another
strong upper wave moves out of the desert southwest Friday/Saturday.
Showers/thunderstorms will likely develop along/north of warm front
near the Red River late Thursday night in Friday. Multiple rounds
of severe weather/heavy rainfall will be possible through Saturday
as warm front lifts north. In addition to the severe threat,
flooding will likely become an issue where the heavier rainfall
occurs. Lingering precipitation chances will continue into early
next week as low level moisture persists with a few weak upper
level impulses possible.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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