Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221707

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017



MVFR ceilings will develop across the NE OK terminals this
afternoon, as stratus deck affecting MLC currently continues to
expand northward. The MVFR ceilings will likely hold off until
this evening/overnight in W AR terminals. Some improvement is
expected by mid to late morning tomorrow, with VFR conditions at
most terminals. Winds will continue from an easterly direction
until mid to late morning tomorrow when southerly winds return.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1027 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/


Much cooler conditions will be felt areawide behind yesterday`s
cold front, accompanied by gusty easterly winds. Low cloud cover
across southeast Oklahoma will continue to expand northward so
areas seeing some sun late this morning will likely see a return
of at least mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Some potential for
isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm will exist through the
afternoon, and one change to the going forecast has been to back
all POPs today down to slight chance. Updated products out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 636 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

VFR cigs to mostly prevail at all sites through the period.  Exceptions
include brief MVFR cigs early in the period at KTUL and KRVS...and
lowering cigs to MVFR categories late at KMLC and KFSM as
southerly winds being to return. Gusty NE sfc winds across NE OK
and NW AR should lessen as the morning progresses.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

Elevated showers/thunderstorms continue across northwest Arkansas
early this morning. A few of the stronger storms could produce
hail but overall intensity/coverage should continue to trend
downward through the morning hours. Cold front has pushed into far
southeast Oklahoma and will continue a slow progression south
with drier air filtering in from the east.

Low level moisture will begin to lift back north into the area on
Thursday in advance of a strong upper level storm system moving
through the southern Rockies. Models remain in good agreement with
developing band of showers/thunderstorms Friday morning east of
the dry line with convective line sweeping east through the area
during the day Friday. Given the extensive cloud cover expected,
overall instability will remain marginal, however very strong low
level wind fields suggest a damaging wind threat with any of the
stronger bow segments. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible, especially across far southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Friday afternoon. An additional round of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible Friday night in association with
main upper low. Large hail will be the main threat with these
storms given the steep lapse rates and low wet-bulb zero heights
around 7-8 kft.

Brief lull in the weather expected Saturday afternoon/night
before another upper wave approaches from the west on Sunday. In
response, low level moisture will quickly surge back north into
the area Sunday afternoon/evening as a surface low moves out of
the Texas panhandle and tracks near the Red River. Showers/thunderstorms
will spread into the area from the west late Sunday afternoon
into Sunday evening with another round of severe weather possible.
Although deep layer shear will be somewhat marginal (30-35 kts),
low level winds will remain backed ahead of surface low yielding
0-3 km helicity values in the 300-400 (m/s)2 range. Depending on
how far north the true warm front lifts during this time and if
storms can become surface based, an enhanced tornado threat would
be possible, primarily across far southeast Oklahoma.

Active weather pattern continues into next week as additional
storm systems impact the Southern Plains. Highest precipitation
chances appear to be around mid week as another strong upper low
moves out of the Rockies, although there are still some model
differences concerning exact timing.




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