Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 250849
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
TODAY..AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS THIS MORNING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT
STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. WITH DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BEING
CONDUCIVE TO FIRE STARTS...SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA /GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44/ WILL LEAD TO AGGRESSIVE SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT DO
GET STARTED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA IN BOTH OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A STRONGLY WORDED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT INITIALLY
ISSUED BY YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT. IN ADDITION TO THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT...WITH WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 40 MPH IN AT LEAST THE
WINDIER LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY AS WELL.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION REMAINS MOST LIKELY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE
SOME THREAT OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET WILL EXIST PER EXPECTED VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AN INCH
AT MOST ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE TULSA METRO THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF FORECASTS
FROM OUR OFFICE. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR SLEET LOOKS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY HANG ON INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH INCONSISTENCY PERSISTING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEW YEARS EVE...WITH A
SHARP COOLDOWN REMAINING PROBABLE AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  44  55  35 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   56  41  57  47 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   57  47  57  41 /   0   0  30  60
BVO   57  42  54  33 /   0   0  20  50
FYV   52  41  54  43 /   0   0  20  60
BYV   51  41  54  44 /   0   0  20  60
MKO   57  44  57  40 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   55  43  55  36 /   0   0  20  60
F10   57  46  56  37 /   0   0  20  60
HHW   58  44  57  48 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22





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