Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 150827
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
327 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main items of interest in the forecast this morning are: 1)
Above average warmth for the better part of the upcoming week, 2)
Rain/thunder chances this weekend into early next week with a
frontal boundary, and 3) Rain/thunder chances mid to late next
week.

The upper air pattern is characterized by upper troughing over the
western CONUS and weak shortwave ridging over the region
downstream. At the surface, southerly winds prevail with low
pressure to our north and a front to our northwest. This general
pattern will persist thru Saturday. Lows and highs will run
several degrees above average for this time of year. Heat indices
in some areas will climb into the mid to upper 90s. Eventually by
the latter part of the weekend, the frontal boundary will push
down into northern OK/AR and will knock temps back a bit there,
though temps will likely run above average. This front will
retreat north early next week, with this stretch of above average
warmth expected to continue at least midweek.

As the western CONUS upper trough lifts out toward the upper
Midwest this weekend, the frontal boundary to our northwest will
eventually be forced down into northern OK/AR, possibly aided by
convective outflow as well. Storms firing on the boundary to our
north and west Saturday afternoon could move into the region
Saturday night, and this will likely be the best chance for
rain/thunder. Low thunder chances will persist near the boundary
Sunday, though there are differences in frontal location between
the GFS (which retreats the front north out of our area quicker
and is drier) and the ECMWF. By early next week the front should
have retreated north of the region, ending rain chances.

The forecast become a lot more muddy for the middle to latter part
of next week. The general idea of maintaining western CONUS
troughing is about the only thing the GFS and ECMWF models agree
on. Several pieces of energy will likely eject out of the western
CONUS longwave, but the timing of these individual features is
uncertain. In addition, the GFS picks up TS Norma in the eastern
Pacific and spreads its mid and high level moisture over the
Plains Wednesday and especially Thursday. The ECMWF is slower to
pick the system up, and shows a weaker system dissipating over
Mexico with no substantial northeastward transport of higher deep
layer moisture northeast. Given low confidence on the timing of
features and uncertainty in the features themselves, will stay
conservative with PoPs in the extended period for now. At some
point, the larger scale western CONUS trough will shift east and
force another front into the region, with rain/thunder chances
rising as head into the following weekend.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  72  92  70 /   0   0   0  30
FSM   92  67  92  70 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   92  70  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   93  68  90  68 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   87  64  87  66 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   88  64  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   90  67  90  69 /   0   0   0  30
F10   92  70  91  69 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   90  67  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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