Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 201535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1035 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Patches of light rain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas are expected to exit by 18z as should the patchy drizzle
across the remainder of northeast Oklahoma. Have only made a few
minor adjustments to the grids for Today to better reflect current
trends in observations and short term model guidance.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Light rain and drizzle will continue through mid morning across NE
OK and far NW AR where IFR conditions will prevail...with slightly
improved conditions across SE OK into west central AR. Flight
conditions are expected to gradually improve by late morning
through the afternoon with VFR conditions likely to return by late
afternoon. Patchy fog is likely tonight impacting flight
conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A mid/upper level shortwave was located over Eastern
Kansas/Northern Oklahoma this morning with scattered to patchy
areas of light rain/drizzle moving northeast across the region.
Also with the light precip...some patchy areas of lower
visibilities had developed over parts of Central/Eastern Oklahoma.
This activity will continue to lift off to the east northeast
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this morning as
the wave shifts eastward over the Midwest. On the backside of the
low...cloudy conditions should be slow to exit the CWA with partly
cloudy skies possible across Southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
Temps for today are expected to be a little warmer with highs in
the 60s to mid 70s possible from north to south.

In the wake of the departing shortwave...a ridge of high pressure
is forecast to set up over the Central United States with
a return of southerly winds and more seasonal average
temperatures for the weekend. Some of the mid range model
solutions continue to indicate light QPF signals during the
weekend...however with rising heights over the region and the
better areas of warm advection to the west...will continue to keep
Saturday and during the day Sunday dry for now.

Late in the weekend...the ridge becomes more positively tilted
over the Central United States in response to a deepening trof
over the Eastern Pacific/Western United States. This will allow
for a more southwesterly upper level flow to develop over the
Southern Plains with a piece of energy lifting from the trof...
within the flow...into the Central Plains Monday. In response...
shower and thunderstorm chances will become possible Sunday night
and Monday across the CWA. Increasing moisture within the
southerly surface flow and warmer temperatures across the CWA will
help to increase instability with at least a limited severe
potential possible Monday.

The Eastern Pacific trof looks to remain over the Western United
States through the week...which will continue the transport of low
level moisture within southerly flow over the CWA. At the same
time...a dryline is forecast to develop over the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles to Western Oklahoma with a nearly stationary frontal
boundary over the Lee of the Rocky Mountains. The combination of
the continued reinforcement of moisture into the region and the
two boundaries out west will create continued daily thunderstorm
chances across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through the
week. These conditions will allow for an unstable atmosphere to
remain over the region with severe weather potentials each day.
The greater chance for thunderstorms and also severe potential
looks to be toward the end of the week as the trof out west
finally pushes into the Plains.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10



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