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000
FXUS64 KTSA 090912
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WAS
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY WITHIN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR A LIMITED POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WHILE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD SEE
TEMPS IN THE RANGE OF YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AS
A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THUS
POSITIONING THE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
FRONT GETS REPOSITIONED OVER THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...FORECAST CONVECTION OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS
THIS EVENING LOOKS TO DEVELOP INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING MCS
AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS MCS
COULD REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...SHIFTING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK OUT
OF THE SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
PATTERN CHANGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK TO REMAIN HOT
AND HUMID BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THE CWA. FOR THIS
FORECAST...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE TIME FRAME FOR
COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  70  91  74 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   92  71  91  74 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   90  73  93  74 /  30  30  20  10
BVO   90  67  88  72 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   87  66  85  70 /  10  20  30  10
BYV   85  65  85  70 /  10  10  30  10
MKO   90  71  90  73 /  10  30  20  10
MIO   89  66  85  73 /   0  20  30  10
F10   90  72  92  74 /  30  30  20  10
HHW   92  73  94  73 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....20