Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A
SOUTH SURFACE WIND 6-10KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH 29/18Z.

LZK/55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99




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