National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 111121
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. VERY STRONG
WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
PERIOD OF LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL PASS ACROSS NE OK /
FAR NW AR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS THE  DANGEROUS
FIRE CONDITIONS THAT WILL  DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS OF 20 - 30 MILES
AN HOUR GUST TO 40 - 45 MILES AN HOUR WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR OSAGE WASHINGTON
NOWATA CRAIG PAWNEE  TULSA ROGERS CREEK OKFUSKEE  AND
OKMULGEE COUNTIES FROM NOON UNTIL 10 PM.  FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING EASTERN OK
COUNTIES AND NORTHWEST AR COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...THEN DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO
NEAR 40 OVERNIGHT. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT OVER FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OK  AND  NORTHWEST AR FOR CHANCE POP
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED RISK THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES SOME 30 DEGREES COLDER WEDNESDAY WITH A
STIFF NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.  MORE FIRE CONCERNS WITH
RH VALUES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER WAVE  BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. GFS MUCH FASTER WETTER THAN ECMWF SOLUTION.
ANOTHER REINFORCING WAVE ARRIVES ABOUT SUNDAY.  ONCE
AGAIN GFS WETTER THAN ECMWF.  A LOW DEFINITION MODEL
BLEND APPLIED FOR WEEKEND.                        GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   80  40  54  31 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   81  38  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   83  34  53  25 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   77  35  48  24 /   0  20   0   0
BYV   76  35  47  25 /   0  30   0   0
MKO   80  37  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   80  34  50  26 /   0  20   0   0
F10   81  37  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   79  40  56  30 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office