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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
553 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS ERN OK AND NWRN AR WITH ISOLD IFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY ERODE FROM NW TO SE WITH MLC AND FSM LIKELY HOLDING ONTO
CIGS UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE MLC/FSM/FYV/XNA
THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROB IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. SOME
FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT XNA/FYV/BVO/RVS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL METAR SITES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN IN FULL BOUNCE MODE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GIVEN RAIN OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CARRY PATCHY DENSE FOG UNTIL 10 AM ALL LOCATIONS.
MARGINAL..SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES.
SOGGY GROUND...RESIDUAL STUBBORN STRATUS CLOUD LIKELY
TO HOLD TEMPS BELOW CONSENSUS MODEL OUTPUT TODAY.

GFS/ECMWF SPITTING OUT VERY LIGHT QPF BOTH SATURDAY &
SUNDAY. LITTLE LIFT TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.
DRY WEEKEND FORECAST.

QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A GOOD TIME OF YEAR FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS!

ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS IN SPEED AND INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO GREAT LAKES
REGION LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ABOUT A DAY FASTER
AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA..WHILE SLOW ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIP NORTH. MARGINAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.                                             GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  66  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   80  67  87  69 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   80  66  86  67 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   85  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   79  59  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   79  61  84  62 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   82  64  86  66 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   84  63  86  64 /  10   0  10   0
F10   81  65  85  66 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   77  66  85  66 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....21