National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 041123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
523 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VISIBILITIES/CIGS IN FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE EARLY
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING NORTHEAST OK. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TO REACH KBVO/KTUL/KRVS AROUND 15Z...AND
KFYV/KFSM/KMLC 19Z-21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINTER STORM THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF HEAVY SNOW HEAVY
SLEET HEAVY FREEZING RAIN AREA. CURRENT THINKING
PUTS  HEAVIEST SNOW IN BAND FROM OKFUSKEE COUNTY
TO BENTON COUNTY...IN THE 5-7 NEIGHBORHOOD. MOST
FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTHERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY ARKANSAS. BETTER THAN 0.50 ICE A
GOOD  POSSIBILITY THERE.  MAX SLEET ACCUMULATION
BETWEEN THE HEAVY SNOW NORTH...AND FREEZING RAIN
SOUTH. WOULD NOT NOT SURPRISED TO SEE TWO INCHES
OF SLEET NEAR MCINTOSH COUNTY->WASHINGTON COUNTY
ARKANSAS LINE.

CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT THAT STARTS THIS WINTER
SHOW  JUST NORTHWEST OF TULSA.  FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE  REST OF EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
TODAY. LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY POST FRONT.  CLASSIC
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH
ARCTIC HIGH TO NORTH NORTHWEST WHILE MINOR WAVES
RIPPLE NORTHEAST. PRECIP ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP  SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND EXPAND NORTH DURING
THE DAY.  MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM  WINDING DOWN  FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MORE MIXED PRECIP  SATURDAY NIGHT AND  SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.  AMOUNTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

FRIGID AIRMASS WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BE ADVISED USING TODAYS FORECAST SNOW/SLEET/SNOW
AMOUNTS.  A CHANGE OF  PLUS  OR MINUS A DEGREE C
IN  TEMP PROFILE COULD CHANGE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SLEET TO SNOW  OR THE OTHER WAY SNOW TO SLEET.
TOTAL  SNOW  SLEET  FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE
BALANCE.                                      GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  26  26  18 /   0   0  70  90
FSM   68  37  37  25 /   0  20 100 100
MLC   64  31  31  21 /   0  10 100 100
BVO   49  22  25  17 /   0   0  50  70
FYV   64  29  30  19 /   0  10 100 100
BYV   65  29  29  19 /   0  10 100 100
MKO   61  30  30  20 /   0  10 100 100
MIO   55  24  26  18 /   0   0  80  80
F10   58  28  28  19 /   0  10  90 100
HHW   71  38  38  26 /   0  20 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ053-OKZ066-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ076.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR
     OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
