200
FXUS64 KTSA 111444
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
944 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

   - Isolated showers and storms possible northwest of Interstate
     44 this afternoon. Heat index values from the upper 90s to
     near 105 expected this afternoon.

   - Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend
     with potential for locally heavy rainfall.

   - An active weather regime continues into next week with daily
     thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 944 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

At mid morning, a mid level trof axis was located across central
Kansas through western Oklahoma, while at the surface a low
pressure was centered over east central Kansas with a cold front
extending southwest into the Oklahoma Panhandle. On the southern
periphery of the trof axis was a secondary vort max moving
eastward with the movement of the main trof axis. Meanwhile, ahead
and east of these features, south to southwesterly winds had
become breezy across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with
temps in the low/mid 80s.

Through this afternoon, the upper level trof axis and the
associated secondary vort max is expected to move into eastern
Oklahoma. The movement of the surface low and cold front is
forecast to be slower with the boundary remaining just northwest
of the CWA this evening. As the upper level features move into
eastern Oklahoma and interact with max heating, surface/elevated
instability, and a little higher shear values than what has been
seen recently will create a slight chance of convection this
afternoon into this evening. The greater potential is where the
secondary vort max moves across northeast Oklahoma, which at this
time is Okfuskee co to Craig co. Ingredients mentioned above will
aid in a limited strong to severe potential mid afternoon into
this evening with locally strong wind gusts the main threat and
hail a secondary threat. Precipitable water values around 1.5
inches will also create a locally heavy rain threat.

Also this afternoon with the approach of the frontal boundary,
south to southwesterly winds gusting 15 to near 30 mph are
forecast across the CWA. These winds will help afternoon
temperatures once again warm into the low/mid 90s for most
locations. At the same time, greater mixing of the lower levels
should occur with afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower
70s. In response, afternoon heat index values are expected to
remain below advisory criteria today with max values of mid 90s to
around 103 degrees.

For the morning update, have adjusted afternoon PoPs slightly based
on the movement of the trof/vort max and added minor tweaks to
hourly temp/dewpoint/wind grids to account for latest trends and
obs. The rest of the forecast looks to be handling well at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will become more likely tonight through
the weekend with the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area and
a weak upper trough moving across the area. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible in some places with slow moving storms, along with
the potential for a few marginally severe storms, with damaging
winds being the main severe weather threat. Temperatures will be
below normal over the weekend due to all the clouds and rain.

Shower and storm coverage will diminish next week, but not
completely go away. Added sunshine will push temperatures back up
closer to the seasonal averages. Another frontal boundary will
approach the area by Wednesday or Thursday leading to another
uptick in shower and storm coverage and a slight drop in
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period.
Breezy/gusty south to southwest winds will commence after sunrise
this morning, with occasional to frequent 20 to 25 knot gusts
through the afternoon at most TAF sites. Otherwise, anticipate few
to scattered mid-level and upper-level clouds through the period.
Isolated showers and storms could develop across northeast OK by
mid-late afternoon. Added a TEMPO group at BVO, TUL, and
RVS...though forecast probability and confidence is low at this
time. Slightly better convection chances will come by early this
evening and into tonight across NE OK and NW AR. Maintained a
PROB30 group for TSRA at TAF sites north of I-40 reflecting this
chance.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  86  70 /  20  50  70  50
FSM   96  76  91  73 /  10  20  50  30
MLC   93  75  88  71 /  10  20  60  50
BVO   94  71  86  68 /  20  60  60  40
FYV   92  71  87  68 /  10  30  60  40
BYV   93  72  88  68 /  10  30  60  40
MKO   93  73  86  70 /  10  30  70  50
MIO   93  71  86  69 /  20  60  60  40
F10   93  73  86  70 /  10  30  70  50
HHW   93  74  91  72 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67