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000
FXUS64 KTSA 302019
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface ridge position along with the continuation of low
dewpoints will result in yet another cool night across the region.
Not expecting lows quite as chilly as seen this morning...although
have gone at or a bit below the lowest guidance numbers. Ohio
Valley upper low will finally lift northeast...allowing for weak
southerly flow to develop by Sunday. Overall...the weekend is
looking fine with near seasonal temps for Saturday and a bit above
average by Sunday.

Strengthening southerly flow will eventually draw back improved
low-level moisture through the area by Tuesday into Wednesday.
This is ahead of a longwave trof that will be pushing into the
Rockies and Plains by mid-week. Still some timing differences
noted among the extended models...and consensus suggests
Wednesday/Wednesday night as the best timeframe for
showers/storms. Most of this activity will transition east by
Thursday...with cooler/drier weather shaping up for the end of
next week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  79  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   54  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   45  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  76  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   46  73  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   50  80  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   49  76  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  80  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  84  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18