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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200505
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR...WITH CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THUNDER FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY CONFINED TO NE OK. COVERAGE APPROACHING FAR NW AR
WARRANTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF VCTS. MVFR CIGS MAY OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TOWARDS 12Z...HOWEVER CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT OR RISE TO VFR
LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB GROUPS AT ALL SITES...WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS REDUCED BY TSRA WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR THE
THE NE OK TAF SITES EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY IMPACT SE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES AS THEY
TRANSLATE EAST. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR FROM PRE DAWN HOURS INTO
THE AFTERNOON...WHEN AT THAT TIME ADDITIONAL THUNDER CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THUNDER WILL BE
INCLUDED AS PROB GROUPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
DRY LINE HAS MIXED EAST AS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG IT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK
AS CAP OVERCOME BY HEATING AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. THIS
IS THE BEGINNING OF A PATERNALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
IMPACTING PARTS OF EASTERN OK THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY FAR NW
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. EARLY CELLS IN SW KANSAS BECOMING SUPERCELLS
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND PARAMETERS LOOK INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THEY PROGRESS INTO EASTERN OK 5-6 PM.

OVERALL THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES STILL APPEARS FOCUSED
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-44 WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE BEST...BUT
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL IMPLY SOME THREAT OF THIS ALL THE WAY
SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP THERE. GIANT HAIL
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ALSO A CONCERN. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME TONIGHT WITH THE HELP OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET AS THEY PROGRESS EAST. THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL KEEP A TORNADO THREAT GOING FOR A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT MAY ALSO BECOME HIGHER AT THIS
POINT.

BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA MONDAY BY STORMS
TONIGHT WITH SYNOPTIC FRONT REMAINING NEARBY AND DRY LINE
RETREATING BACK INTO SW OKLAHOMA. ONCE AGAIN FORECAST PARAMETERS
IMPLY A POTENTIAL HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN PARTS OF THE
AREA MONDAY...PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY. OVERALL COVERAGE
OF STORMS COULD BE GREATER AND SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS SYNOPTIC FRONT
BECOMES ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE HOW TONIGHT UNFOLDS
TO PIN DOWN DETAILS. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TUESDAY WITH
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTING INTO SE OKLAHOMA.

BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN THU AND FRIDAY...WITH COVERAGE TRENDING DOWN BY THE WEEKEND
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23