Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 192100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH ROUGHLY AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 NOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS A WIND SHIFT...WITH ONLY A MINOR
DROP IN DEW POINT AND LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
THIS MORNINGS. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVERALL THAN TODAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
LIKELY TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EARLY LOWS LOOKING
PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE KEY
TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HOW SOON THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVES
NORTH.

A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON ITS
BACKSIDE MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST A LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST...WITH AT
LEAST THE ECMWF PERSISTENTLY HINTING AT MORE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND/AFTER THANKSGIVING. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS...IT MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  53  40  55 /   0   0  40  40
FSM   30  54  42  55 /   0  10  40  50
MLC   31  58  47  61 /   0  10  40  40
BVO   23  51  35  54 /   0   0  30  40
FYV   23  50  38  52 /   0   0  30  50
BYV   23  49  35  50 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   28  54  42  56 /   0   0  40  40
MIO   22  50  34  52 /   0   0  30  40
F10   29  55  43  58 /   0   0  40  40
HHW   34  60  50  61 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22




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