Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 311515
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level shear axis remains in place across southeast OK and
western AR this morning. Isolated showers or storms remain
possible within this axis with some added terrain influence.
Forecast is tracking well this morning and no update needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Other than some patchy light fog early this morning at KBVO...VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Low chance pop this afternoon for southeast
OK and northwest AR...not unlike yesterday.

Long stretch of very warm dry weather while
H500 ridge expands from NM west TX into the
Great Lakes Region. Daytime highs generally
upper 80s to lower 90s  and  overnight lows
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Both...ECMWF and GFS swing significant H500
wave from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest
by Friday..then across northern US southern
CN border area. This will push a cold front
our way around or a little after Labor Day.
gw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  93  73 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   93  71  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  68  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  67  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   89  70  91  70 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   89  69  90  69 /   0  10   0  10
F10   91  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   95  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30


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