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000
FXUS64 KTSA 060651
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1251 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...

BAND OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A NE-SW ALIGNED 700MB
DEFORMATION ZONE/TROUGH AXIS. THIS AXIS WILL ORIENT ITSELF MORE
N-S AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA-ARKANSAS
STATE LINE. THE FORCING ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL WEAKEN
WITH TIME AS A PV MAX CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH OVER OK/KS MERGES
WITH ANOTHER PV MAX OVER FAR EAST TX/WESTERN LA AND FORMS A CLOSED
LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...THE PRECIP BAND WILL PROBABLY
SPREAD EAST INTO FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS...MAYBE AS FAR EAST AS
FAYETTEVILLE AND FORT SMITH...BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

A WARM LAYER NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE MAINTAINED...AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...ASSURING THAT WET BULBING
WILL NOT HELP TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS ANY FURTHER. THUS...EXPECT
RAIN PRIMARILY...WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AT TIMES...SINCE
MELTING IS OCCURRING WITHIN A THOUSAND FEET OR SO FROM THE GROUND.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION OR TRAVEL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
SHORTLY. SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW AT
XNA THROUGH 08Z AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A SLIGHTLY COLDER/DRIER
AIR-MASS. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT FOG WILL EXPAND ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SKIES CLEAR MID MORNING THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO ADD LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST.
THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF THE PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  33  64  37 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   53  31  63  40 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   52  33  64  41 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   50  30  62  35 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   49  28  61  36 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   48  29  60  35 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   52  32  63  39 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   50  30  61  35 /   0   0   0  20
F10   51  34  63  40 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   53  33  64  43 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30