Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 040956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR HAS PUSHED THROUGH ABOUT THE NRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES JUST NOW REACHING THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT THE FREEZING
LINE TO PUSH TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...TO MLC AND JUST N OF
FSM BY 18Z...AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN OK BY 00Z.

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE BAJA...WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SRN OK...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST REASONING CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPES HASN`T CHANGED
MUCH. A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK
AND NW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW LATER THIS MORNING
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NW AR...WITH A FEW 4+" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW OCCURS...AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
IF SLEET ENDS UP AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. REGARDLESS...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL STILL RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS SE OK INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO
ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LEFLORE INTO PARTS OF SRN LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES.

WHILE ANY ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THIS EVENT...THEN COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW AND
EXPECTED TRAVEL IMPACTS WARRANTS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NW AR INTO PARTS OF SE OK. CURRENT ICING
FORECAST FOR FAR SERN OK IS PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE CHOCTAW COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS SE OK AND POSSIBLY WCNTRL AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 06Z...BUT WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  15  34  18 / 100  50  10   0
FSM   43  21  34  20 / 100  90  10   0
MLC   40  22  35  16 / 100  90  10   0
BVO   27  12  35  13 /  90  30   0   0
FYV   32  16  31  12 / 100  90  10   0
BYV   31  14  30  14 / 100  80  10   0
MKO   36  17  33  16 / 100  80  10   0
MIO   28  12  32  18 / 100  30  10   0
F10   34  18  34  19 / 100  80  10   0
HHW   49  23  38  21 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18





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