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000
FXUS64 KTSA 302330
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE SHIELD OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO
NEAR 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD AN INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AXIS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTH OF THE WAVE...AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING
PUSHMATAHA AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH BEGIN THAT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
3-6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.

SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE. OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK COULD REACH BACK UP TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IN THE
FAR END OF THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...COOLER TEMPS COULD
RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10