Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 281200
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
700 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs will affect the NE OK and NW AR sites this morning, but
are expected to scatter out by midday. Some low end vfr cigs are
expected later this morning at KMLC and KFSM as low level moisture
return gets underway from the south. Storm potential increases aft
03Z for the NE OK sites and aft 06Z for the SE OK and NW AR sites.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
A quiet overnight period with high pressure over the region. Trough
that brought Sunday`s severe threat, now working into the Ohio River
Valley and will quickly dampen out soon after. To the west, another
progressive Pacific trough has moved inland and is now sliding
across the Desert Southwest. This system will be the main focus over
the next several days as it ejects out onto the Southern Plains.
Today and Tonight: Upper level trough over the Four Corners will
begin to slow its advancement east as surface low deepens over the
southern High Plains. Southerly winds and decent warm air advection
out ahead of the system will begin to advect surface moisture north
along with warmer temperatures. Clouds will begin to increase
through the late morning and afternoon hours as moisture streams
north. Much of today will be relatively quiet with main severe
threat setting up south and west of the forecast area, across north-
central Texas and southwest to south-central Oklahoma. Dryline will
initially mix into west Texas before being overrun by the cold
front. Storms look to fire along the dryline during early to mid-
afternoon and are given an extra boost once the cold front arrives
by late afternoon. Northern portion of the front will help move
storms north and eastward during the evening and overnight hours.
Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threat during the
evening hours with severe threat decreasing some as storms move
north and east during the overnight hours.
Wednesday-Thursday: Depending on how far east the convective line
travels overnight, will be the general focus area for storms to
reignite Wednesday for another day of severe weather. Short-term
models forecast this line work its way into eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas by Wednesday morning. Abundant surface moisture out
ahead of the front allowing for a moderate instability axis, and
decent shear profile will allow severe storms to develop by the
afternoon. Showers will likely linger across the area into Thursday
Thursday-Monday: Wash rinse repeat for the weekend it seems. A brief
respite between storm systems on Friday before the next system
begins to impact the region Saturday. Initially positively tilted
trough will become more negatively tilted and weakens by late in the
weekend and into early next week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day from Saturday through at
least Monday. Limited instability should limit overall severe
potential, but given that its toward the end of the forecast, will
need to keep an eye on it.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 73 61 74 51 / 20 80 80 50
FSM 76 60 75 56 / 10 60 80 80
MLC 77 63 75 54 / 30 80 80 40
BVO 72 58 72 49 / 20 80 80 60
FYV 72 57 71 54 / 10 60 90 80
BYV 69 54 69 55 / 10 60 80 90
MKO 75 61 73 54 / 20 80 80 60
MIO 71 57 69 54 / 10 70 80 70
F10 75 62 75 52 / 30 80 80 40
HHW 76 63 76 56 / 40 80 80 50