Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281054
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
554 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A MLC/FYV LINE. MAIN PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BEFORE 12Z WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF/MODEST
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD/CANADIAN AIR-MASS SETTLES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE COLDER GFS/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TIMING WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF...WHICH DEVELOPS STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ARKLATX JUST BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIODS TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





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