Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181847
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
147 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE MORNING PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AND PUSHED OUT OF THE
CWA. THE ONE EXCEPTION REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER
CONTINUES TO BE WELL WORKED OVER...ALLOWING FOR THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHERE ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY COULD
REMAIN. WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER COULD ALLOW FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME STRONG BUT INSTABILITY BEING ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE ORIGINAL MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT ANY
SEVERE CHANCES.

CONTINUED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS IN
CHECK OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TEMPS RANGES FROM THE LOW 70S TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL SEND
AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POP/WX/SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07





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