Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201740
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS..FLYING CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK
OPTIMAL. MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST
PART WITH WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ADVANCING DRY LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PROGRESS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS CURRENTLY NEAR A KEMP-KJWG-KGSM LINE. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE AID OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. TORNADOES AGAIN APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR THREAT
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OCCURRING BETWEEN INTERSTATES 44 AND 40.
LOCAL MODELS ARE GAINING GREATER CONSISTENCY IN HIGHLIGHTING
THIS AREA FOR TORNADOES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE OUT THIS
EVENING WITH STORMS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.
TRYING TO PINPOINT TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10
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