687
FXUS64 KTSA 101031
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

   - Isolated late afternoon showers and storms possible in mainly
     southeast Oklahoma today.

   - A more active weather regime returns for the weekend on into
     next week with daily thunderstorm chances.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     each of the next few afternoons. The warmest days will be
     Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Hot and humid conditions will prevail today, with afternoon heat
index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees in most
places, and actual air temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Much like
today, isolated late afternoon showers and thunderstorms may
develop, mainly across parts of southeast Oklahoma, but any storms
will be short lived.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Friday looks to be the last dry day for awhile. Temperatures will
once again warm into the low to mid 90s, but heat index values will
likely be a bit lower than Thursday due to slightly lower dewpoints.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Friday night and
Saturday as a weak cold front sags south into the area. This
boundary and/or convective outflow will continue to trigger showers
and storms through the weekend, with the better chances likely
shifting a bit south by Sunday compared to Saturday. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible over the weekend.

General upper troughing early next week will result in continued
storm chances, but coverage will likely be lower than over the
weekend. Another frontal boundary looks to move into the area around
the middle of next week and will once again increase the coverage of
showers and storms. Temperatures will likely remain below normal
through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Largely MVFR visibility reductions remain possible at most of the
terminals through 13Z given trends at other observation sites and
satellite observations. FYV briefly observed IFR conditions
earlier this morning which quickly rebounded to VFR and with
currently non-calm wind conditions expect that quite that
substantial a drop is unlikely. Will monitor trends to ultimately
determine how low to go in their TEMPO before issuance. Outside of
the immediate visibility concerns, VFR conditions will prevail,
with gusty afternoon southerly winds largely confined to the NE OK
terminals. A few afternoon thunderstorms may approach MLC and FSM
but coverage is expected to be limited enough that explicit
mention of on station impacts is not prudent at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  77  94  74 /   0  10   0  30
FSM   95  76  96  75 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   94  75  94  74 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   94  73  94  71 /   0  10   0  50
FYV   92  72  92  71 /   0  10   0  20
BYV   93  72  93  72 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   94  75  94  73 /   0  10   0  20
MIO   93  75  93  71 /   0  10  10  40
F10   93  75  92  73 /   0  10   0  20
HHW   93  75  94  73 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22