Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 232305
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
605 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Surface high pressure will maintain VFR conditions thru the
period. As the surface high starts to shift east of the area on
Monday, south winds will increase, with gusts over 20 kts likely
across NE OK, with lesser winds across NW AR and SE OK.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Seasonably cold night ahead with lows falling into the mid 30s to
mid 40s and patchy frost possible primarily across far NW AR.
Breezy south winds return Mon through Tues with temps warming
quickly. Low level moisture will begin to increase on Tues with
instability increasing late in the day ahead of the next cold
front. Storms are expected to focus on the frontal zone given the
largely capped and narrow warm sector with NE OK expecting a bit
more coverage with more scattered development southward Tues
night into Wed. Trends in the latest data are slower with the
front thus a few strong storms may continue into early Wed
afternoon across western AR before the front clears the forecast
area.

The late week into next weekend forecast remains somewhat
problematic though latest data are in somewhat better agreement.
The local region will remain well north of the warm front Thurs
though an increasingly unsettled flow pattern aloft may support
convection north of the warm front late Thurs into early Friday.
The magnitude and coverage of any precip will impact how quickly
the warm front can lift northward during the day on Friday.
A more typical scenario is that the developing synoptic warm front
quickly becomes established along the northern periphery of the
forecast area late Friday while the sfc dryline sharpens well west
of the region. This idea would favor higher chances of storms
along the northern and possibly far western portions of the
forecast area through Friday night. Saturday the warm sector is
much more likely to envelope much of the Southern Plains as the
larger storm system edges closer. This again will focus convective
development west of the area during the day with more widespread
convection associated with the system cold front Sat night through
Sunday. Conditional severe weather potential will remain high
within the warm sector and one or more periods of severe storms
are likely across the region from late week through next weekend.
An additional concern will be heavy rain potential given current
saturated soils.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  78  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   45  81  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   45  78  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   41  77  56  82 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   36  75  53  80 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   41  77  53  81 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   44  77  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  76  56  82 /   0   0   0  10
F10   46  77  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   44  78  57  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30


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