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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260449
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Precipitation has almost cleared our forecast area. Just a few
showers left in far NE OK and western AR. Clearing line is south
of ICT/EMP line now...so some concern for fog at NE OK terminals.
If winds become light enough and skies clear...should see some fog
develop given the moist boundary layer. In NW AR and KMLC...low
ceilings have been an issue...with observed ceilings occasionally
below 1000 feet. Will cover this with tempo groups. Skies will
clear from northwest to southeast overnight and through the
morning with VFR conditions for the later portions of the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 709 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Big weather changes ongoing across the region this afternoon and
evening. Looking aloft, a potent PV max was moving east across
the Northern Plains with the base of the parent trough diving
southeast across the Central Plains. Another upper low was
located over NW Mexico with SW flow aloft over our area. At the
surface, a cold front extended south of a surface low over Central
Canada across the Ozarks and down into south central Oklahoma. A
large area of dynamic surface high pressure was located over the
Northwestern CONUS, in the wake of the Northern Plains trough.

A band of stratiform rain continues behind the front, forced
mainly by the slight invariantly nature of the flow aloft
relative to the surface front. Other scattered showers and
isolated storms were occurring in the warm sector ahead of the
front. The stratiform rain band should continue to shift SE with
the front and gradually weaken as the upper flow begins to veer to
W and then NW with approaching trough axis. Convection ahead of
the front will wane with the loss of daytime heating. The pops
have been adjusted to account for current radar trends and the
forecast reasoning. Updated text products have been sent.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front has pushed into NW AR this evening...with a line of
post frontal showers across northeast OK. The precipitation will
end at KTUL/KRVS within a couple hours...and for the rest of the
TAF sites...will carry TEMPO groups for showers this evening. Some
sites in NE OK are briefly reporting IFR ceilings but that should
not last. Lightning has been isolated and will not mention at any
of the terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The much anticipated cold front is making its way through the
forecasts area this afternoon and is currently positioned near
Interstate 44. A broken band of light to moderate showers extends
roughly along the front, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
ahead of the boundary. The overall area of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to make southeastward progress
overnight, with the front exiting southeast Oklahoma by midnight.

A cooler and drier airmass will settle over Oklahoma and Arkansas
behind the front, as evidenced by dew points in the 30s and 40s in
Kansas and Nebraska at present. Temperatures both Monday and
Tuesday are likely to be a few degrees below normal in most
locations. The airmass will moderate some by Wednesday, but a
backdoor cold front Wednesday night should serve to keep
conditions below normal to close out the work week. All in all, it
should be a quiet weather week after the current system clears the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  76  48  79 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   65  76  50  80 /  30  10   0   0
MLC   63  76  48  79 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   52  75  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   57  72  44  75 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   58  72  46  75 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   57  75  48  78 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   54  72  47  76 /  20   0   0   0
F10   58  75  49  78 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   65  77  55  81 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06