Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 162054
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
RH values have dipped to around 25% this afternoon under breezy
southwesterly winds and well above normal temps. The current Red
Flag Warning goes through 6 pm...with winds expected to diminish
during the evening hours. Friday should be a bit warmer than
today...although higher afternoon dewpoints should yield slightly
higher RH levels than this afternoon. Don`t have the confidence at
this time for a Fire Weather watch...but will likely need at least
a Fire Danger statement for parts of the forecast area Friday
afternoon.

Complex upper low with one circulation noted near ELP will lift
northeast through Saturday...eventually moving through southern
OK/northern TX. Any significant precipitation/storms will stay
well south of the area with the stronger layered flow...but we`ll
see an substantial increase in cloud cover and perhaps a some
scattered light showers around later Friday night into Saturday.
Upper ridging will quickly build later Saturday into Sunday in the
wake of the exiting upper low. Increasing southerly flow will help
push temps back above normal...with highs well into the 70s for
most areas.

Deep meridional flow develops Sunday night into early next week as
a longwave trof from the southwestern states into Mexico advances
eastward. Improving moisture with this system will provide a round
of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms for Monday into Monday
night...although the best chances of storms remains farther south
with the better instability. The remainder of next week is looking
mostly dry and mild.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  71  50  68 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   38  70  49  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   45  71  53  69 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   37  72  46  68 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   36  67  45  64 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   42  68  48  66 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   40  70  49  68 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   41  71  48  68 /   0   0  10  10
F10   43  70  51  68 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   42  69  52  68 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ054>059.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18



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