


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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523 FXUS64 KTSA 081054 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 554 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next week with higher chances Tuesday and again this weekend. - Limited severe potential Tuesday with locally damaging wind the primary threat. Also, a heavy rain threat will exist through Tuesday evening. - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range toward the latter half of next week, with a weak cold front possible during the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A compact mid level low currently located over eastern Oklahoma was slowly move eastward Monday night. At the same time, a deep moisture plume from the Texas Gulf coast, resided across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The combination of these features along with continued elevated instability were allowing for scattered showers and a few storms to remain ongoing across east central Oklahoma and parts of northwest Arkansas. This mid level compact low and its associated wind shift is expected to continue its eastward path into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by 12z Tuesday. With the disturbance holding over the region Monday night, will continue shower and thunderstorm chances mainly along and east of the associated wind shift south/east of Interstate 44 through northwest Arkansas. There could be an uptick in coverage toward sunrise Tuesday morning and will carry slightly higher PoPs for that time period. The compact mid level low moves through the CWA Tuesday morning ahead of the main area of low pressure currently pushing southeast through the Central Plains. This shortwave is progged to move into the region Tuesday afternoon and looks to exit Tuesday late evening. In response, to the features moving through the region, storm chances continue Tuesday morning and increase Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening with the greater potential across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas where the deep moisture plume is expected to remain. Slightly higher deep layer shear values, max heating and both surface/elevated instability interacting with the afternoon shortwave will help to create limited severe potentials over the CWA. Locally damaging winds are the primary threat. At the same time, with the ample amounts of moisture over the region, a heavy rain threat exists through Tuesday evening. In the wake of the exiting shortwave Tuesday night, short-term solutions indicate a secondary compact low developing over the Central Plains and moving southward through Oklahoma. There is differing guidance with a potential MCS from this disturbance and for now will keep low chance PoPs overnight Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Shower and thunderstorm chances look to remain forecast across mainly the southern half of the CWA Wednesday with the secondary disturbance moving southeast near the Red River. Behind this disturbance, more northerly flow is expected into Wednesday night which could help to push the deep moisture plume east and southeast of the CWA. In response, will keep PoPs below mentionable criteria for Thursday. The ridge of high pressure that currently remains over the Desert Southwest is progged to flatten out Wednesday night/Thursday as a wave moves into the Pacific Northwest. As the ridge flattens out, an increase in southerly low level flow will aid in warmer and more humid conditions Thursday into Friday. Heat index values late week of upper 90s to near 105 degrees remains possible across much of the CWA. With the more zonal flow late week, a leading shortwave to the wave moving into the Pacific Northwest is forecast to push through the Plains Friday with the parent wave moving through the Plains Saturday. A frontal boundary with the parent trof axis could approach the CWA during the weekend. However, there remains uncertainty with just how far south this boundary can travel before lifting back northward. Either way, shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday and continue off and on through the upcoming weekend across the CWA. With the return of rain chances, temperatures for the weekend look to be slightly cooler compared to the warmest days of the week being Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Thunderstorms have developed over the last couple of hours in response to the disturbance moving through the area. Impacts to MLC and FSM have already occurred, with continued impacts expected for FSM and potential for impacts at FYV later this morning. Uncertainty exists as to whether this will make its way as far north as XNA and ROG and depending on trends over the next 20 minutes or so, will either leave a mention out completely or include a near term PROB30 at those two sites. The current expectation is that this early development could suppress further development until this afternoon and the TAFs have trended drier late morning into early afternoon as a result. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 73 92 73 / 30 20 10 0 FSM 90 75 91 73 / 60 30 30 10 MLC 90 73 89 71 / 50 30 20 10 BVO 91 70 91 69 / 40 20 10 0 FYV 88 70 89 68 / 60 20 20 10 BYV 89 70 89 69 / 60 20 30 0 MKO 90 72 91 71 / 40 20 20 0 MIO 90 71 90 70 / 40 20 10 0 F10 90 72 90 71 / 40 20 20 0 HHW 88 72 89 71 / 60 30 40 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...22