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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171128
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES... BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF
TAFS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION FROM DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE LOWER
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY SO RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANY RAIN
DOES FALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BUT
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW. ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST AT THIS TIME
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT DID GO A BIT COOLER FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND A
BIT WARMER FOR HIGHS FRIDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06