National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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FXUS64 KTSA 030252
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
852 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE BREAKING OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT SHORT TERM
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES...THE HYDROLAPSE OR DEPTH OF THE RICHER
MOISTURE IS FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE ONE
UNCERTAINTY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN THE PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDINESS
STREAMING OVER AND ITS EFFECTS ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AT THE TOP
OF THE MOIST LAYER NEAR THE GROUND. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...I
HAVE ELECTED TO START SMALL AND THEN EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AS NEEDED RATHER THAN BLANKET THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE.

AFTER FOG BURNS OFF TUESDAY...ONE MORE WARM DAY...THEN THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT. ARCTIC FRONT TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINTER PRECIP
STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT...VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE
REDUCED INTO THE IFR RANGE IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MIX OUT THE FOG
BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AT THAT
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ENJOY THE WEATHER TODAY AND TUESDAY BECAUSE IT WILL GO DOWNHILL
IN A HURRY AFTER THAT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE 60. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS LEE
SIDE TROUGH INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DIVING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER READING TUESDAY.
INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WILL OFFSET FIRE DANGER SOME...WITH
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF U.S. 75 WHERE VEERING WINDS
LATER IN THE DAY BRING DRIER AIR IN.

MEANWHILE...SFC OBS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOW THE ARCTIC
FRONT PLUNGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA AND HAS ALREADY
JUMPED THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. 1058MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ANALYZED
OVER YUKON TERR INDICATES THIS IS A SERIOUS ARCTIC AIRMASS HEADING
SOUTH...AND WILL START OUR DOWNHILL SLIDE ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A SLIGHTLY FASTER FROPA EARLY
WED...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE TERRAIN
OVER SE OK/NW AR BEFORE FINALLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE AREA BY
THURSDAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN OF WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
DEEPENING COLD DOME AND LEADING TO AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
WINTER WEATHER. THE INITIAL WAVE COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IN AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WITH
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND THU NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY FOCUS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH FROZEN
PRECIP FOR ALL BUT FAR SE OKLAHOMA BY THEN. AT THIS POINT THE
PRECIP AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT HEAVY...BUT MORE THAN ENOUGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER
COLD DOME. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BY SAT MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTH SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS
WAVE BUT TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.
FORTUNATELY AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME. COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  69  36  41 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   43  70  52  61 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   45  72  45  49 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   36  69  33  37 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   41  67  49  58 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   44  66  50  58 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   43  70  42  47 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   42  69  36  41 /   0  10   0  10
F10   43  70  41  45 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   43  70  56  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
