Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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135
FXUS64 KTSA 231518
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1018 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expanding along the I-44 corridor
late this morning, with the most coherent batch currently
approaching central Oklahoma and likely to move into parts of
northeast Oklahoma toward midday. Lightning has increased within
the activity approaching central Oklahoma, which correlates to
increasing instability ahead of it. Low cloud cover should persist
for most of the day, except for perhaps across far southeast
Oklahoma, which will remain out of the precipitation. A slight
decrease in cloud cover is possible late in the day, and given the
current temperatures, would put the forecast high temperatures
well within reach. Main changes to the going forecast have been
to increase POPs along I-44 through mid afternoon, with some
tweaks mainly to increase cloud cover during the afternoon.
Updates already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will begin to develop
this morning in association with approaching upper wave out of
north Texas. Low clouds, IFR/MVFR conditions will likely persist
across most areas this morning before ceiling heights slowly lift
this afternoon. Visibilities will be reduced in the heavier
shower/thunderstorm activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Southern stream shortwave will approach the southern plains
today...as a lead impulse now northeast of GLD moves northeast
toward NE/IA. Low level moisture has increased across the area
with surface dewpoints in the middle 60s to lower 70s which is
keeping temps up this morning. Low clouds have pushed across most
of our area this morning...and will keep high temps lower than
they would be with full sun. Given the moisture in place and
enhanced lift associated with upper wave...will maintain chance
for scattered storms today mainly across NE OK and NW AR.

Wednesday will be the warmest...and likely driest...day of the
week...ahead of developing surface cold front over KS. Latest
model guidance suggests that the front will stall near the OK/KS
and extend from NW MO through NW OK by Thursday morning. It
doesn`t appear the front ever clears our area...but it will be a
potential focus for precipitation through the early part of the
weekend. Must maintain at least a chance of precip through the
weekend although coverage is likely to be scattered.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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