Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 262335
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
635 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
The 00z TAF discussion is included below...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Chances are the TAF sites will stay dry tonight based on latest
short term model trends. So the main aviation concern tonight will
be cigs. Current thinking is that between 02z and 06z, MVFR cigs
will spread from S to N. Current thinking is that there will be a
morning round of storms, a break, and then afternoon/evening
storms. Used prob30/tempo groups to try and cover the times with
the best opportunity for storms. MVFR conditions will prevail for
much of Friday, IFR conditions possible with storms.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas along an outflow
boundary from a thunderstorm complex occurring further to the south.
Airmass is very unstable with surface based cape in the 4000 to 5000
range across a good deal of the area with very little cap if any
across all of our Arkansas area and north of interstate 40 in eastern
Oklahoma. However...deep layer shear weakens rapidly as you move into
Arkansas. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with large
hail and damaging winds before weakening as they move across northwest
Arkansas. Could also see some thunderstorms develop this evening with
a mid-level shortwave in association with a mid-level shortwave
near the red river. The HRRRX has been hinting at this for several
runs now. Additional thunderstorms could continue to develop this evening
along and near outflow boundaries. Severe thunderstorms have already
develop this afternoon along the dryline across western Oklahoma and
Kansas and this activity could make a run for the area later tonight
with strong to severe storms possible. There is also the potential
that thunderstorms developing across Southwest Texas this afternoon
in association with a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet could
approach the area late tonight.
Friday looks to be more active across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
as the upper level low currently over the Four Corners region ejects out
into the plains. With the moist and unstable airmass in place across the
region, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop. Large hail
damaging winds and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
Saturday will most likely the driest day with chances of showers and
thunderstorms increasing Sunday and continue into the middle of next
week as a series of upper level shortwaves move through the region.
The most significant will be a northern stream shortwave that will
drive a cold front into the region on Thursday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 79 68 84 / 40 60 50 20
FSM 68 78 67 83 / 60 80 60 30
MLC 69 78 68 84 / 60 70 40 20
BVO 68 79 65 83 / 40 60 50 20
FYV 67 74 65 79 / 60 90 60 30
BYV 67 77 64 81 / 60 80 60 30
MKO 70 78 67 82 / 40 80 40 30
MIO 68 78 66 82 / 40 80 50 30
F10 70 78 67 83 / 40 70 40 20
HHW 68 78 68 85 / 70 70 40 20