Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 271151
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
651 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms from latest storm system are working
their way out of the area. However, terminals in NW Arkansas will
still see an hour or two of activity before it completely moves
out. MVFR to low VFR cigs look to remain through much of the
prevailing period with the possibility of some fog developing at
several sites after 08Z. Northwest winds behind the system will
become light and variable this evening as surface high
encompasses the region.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/
With the departing upper system today, the main focus of the
forecast shifts toward midweek with the next system. It`s also
looking more likely that another system will bring rain/storm
chances again this upcoming weekend that possibly last into early
Upper low is currently spinning east along/north of the Kansas
border this morning. Scattered showers and storms continue in
advance of the feature across far NE OK, and this activity should
slide east into NW AR this morning before exiting by midday.
Lingering cloud cover in the wake of the system will likely limit
the diurnal range in temps, and thus the forecast will be cooler
by several degrees from the model consensus.
Mid-level cyclogenesis will occur yet again over the Desert
Southwest early this week, with the resulting upper low expected
to slide east into the Plains by Wednesday. Warm conveyor precip
will overspread the region starting late Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The evolution of this system looks very similar to the
system we saw this past Friday. There should be a band of showers
and storms that slide across the region during the morning and
midday hours Wednesday. Some intensification or redevelopment of
storms will occur on the western fringe of the earlier activity as
the atmosphere destabilizes thru the afternoon. The best chance
for severe weather will be with this activity as it organizes over
far eastern OK and slides into western AR by evening.
Almost like a broken record, more shortwave energy is expected to
dive down into the Desert Southwest late this week and mid-level
cyclogenesis will occur yet again. This upper low will bring
another round of rain/storms this upcoming weekend, and could
linger into early next week. Details still vary considerably
between the GFS and ECMWF, but still enough agreement to warrant
solid chance PoPs during this time frame.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 47 74 60 / 20 0 20 80
FSM 67 49 76 59 / 60 0 10 60
MLC 68 49 77 63 / 10 0 20 70
BVO 64 42 71 57 / 40 0 20 80
FYV 61 43 73 57 / 80 0 10 60
BYV 62 45 69 54 / 80 0 10 60
MKO 65 46 75 61 / 20 0 20 70
MIO 63 43 70 56 / 60 0 10 80
F10 67 48 75 62 / 10 0 20 80
HHW 73 52 77 62 / 20 0 20 70