Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 162340
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CEILINGS OVER FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LOOK TO STICK AROUND FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS AND THEN POSSIBLY EXIT THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY VCSH/PROB30/-RA
GROUPS FOR PRECIP TIMING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PESKY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
REMAINING CLOUD COVER ACROSS FAR NW AR. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN FROM THE
WEST BY TOMORROW MORNING. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME TO SET
UP TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST PRECIP ON
THURSDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS FAR ERN AND NRN ZONES THURSDAY. BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY
SLIDES THROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY/AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING THE TROUGH
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTIONS. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE QPF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR. WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP CONFINED TO THE NOCTURNAL
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NEXT RAIN CHANCES COME LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  43  37  46 /   0  60  50  20
FSM   28  46  37  46 /   0  60  80  20
MLC   30  44  39  50 /   0  80  60  10
BVO   24  41  34  43 /   0  50  50  20
FYV   25  44  33  43 /   0  50  80  20
BYV   27  44  34  42 /   0  40  80  20
MKO   28  44  36  44 /   0  60  60  20
MIO   25  42  33  42 /   0  50  60  20
F10   29  43  38  46 /   0  60  60  10
HHW   33  46  41  51 /   0  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




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