Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 170919
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
319 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Another morning of bitterly cold temperatures...making a remote
start car a nice feature to have this morning. Overnight and early
morning temperatures dropped into the single digits for all but a
few locations across Oklahoma and Arkansas as surface high pressure
centered over the region. Extreme northeast Oklahoma, where current
snow cover is the deepest, dropped into the negative single digits.
Northwest Arkansas wasn`t far behind with temperatures near zero by
3 AM. The GOES-16 10.33um IR imagery did a good job of highlighting
areas of snow cover across SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma, and SW Missouri
overnight. The lowest temperatures for this area coincided with this
highlighted region of colder IR values.

A warming trend will begin today and continue through the weekend.
For most of the forecast area, temperatures should be able to climb
above freezing as southerly flow tries to reestablishes and surface
high pushes south and east. A weak trough moves through Thursday but
will have very little impact on the warming trend. An upper level
ridge will elongate over the Plains heading into the weekend. By
Saturday, the thermal ridge axis should be positioned over the
Southern Plains and winds will begin to increase out of the south in
response to a deepening surface low over the High Plains.
Temperatures Saturday look to be quite pleasant despite gusty south
winds, and wouldn`t be surprised to see upper 60s and maybe low 70s
for highs.

Depending on how well the region can recover after this last arctic
blast could have an impact on chances for thunderstorms late in the
weekend. Models are still trying to get a handle on the incoming
Pacific trough, but there does look to be some weak instability that
will work into southeast Oklahoma and maybe as far north as the
KS/OK border. For now, have isolated thunderstorms forecast, but
given that this looks to be a rather potent short-wave trough...will
need to keep an eye how well the atmosphere can recover and the
potential for a low CAPE/high shear type severe threat. However,
this is still quite a few days out and quite a few details will need
to be pinned down as models come into better agreement on trough
placement and timing.

Another cool-down will come on the heels of this weekend system, but
nowhere near the arctic blast we are still feeling.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  19  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  15  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  18  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  15  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   28  15  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   25  13  42  28 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   32  15  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   26  14  42  26 /   0   0   0   0
F10   32  18  46  28 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  18  44  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....11


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