Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 160513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1113 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017


Areas of fog have developed...primarily in the valley areas
of western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.  This includes
the area area around KFYV.  Conditions are likely to vary
widely at KFYV through the night from IFR to VFR with the
fog.  Fog appears not to be too far from KFSM, being around
Poteau and between Fort Smith and Ozark.  Some amount of fog
should work into the KFSM area over night with MVFR visibilities
likely for a period, and possibly IFR on occasion.

MVFR ceilings will spread from south to north on Thursday as
moisture returns north. A few showers or patches of light rain
may develop later Thursday and Thursday evening in the region.
But the coverage and chance appear too low at the moment to include
at the TAF locations.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 913 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

A weak frontal boundary was positioned from Southwest Texas to the
far southeast corner of Oklahoma through Northern Arkansas and
into the Ohio River Valley this evening. Along/near the
boundary...low clouds were observed over far Southeast Oklahoma.
Behind this boundary...drier air continued to filter into the
region with dewpoints in the low/mid 30s across Northeast Oklahoma
to the mid/upper 50s near the Red River.

Overnight tonight...the boundary looks to slowly slide a little
further south before becoming nearly stationary. In response...low
level cloud cover is expected to remain over far Southeast
Oklahoma...mainly south of a McAlester to Poteau line while
few/scattered high clouds should continue over much of the CWA
tonight. Weak cold air advection behind the boundary should help
to limit overnight precip..and will continue with below
mentionable pops underneath the cloud cover.

Drier air underneath the passing cirrus clouds should allow for
temps overnight to fall into the 30s with the normal cool spots
perhaps getting into the lower 30s. Temperatures in the 40s look
possible between Interstate 40 and the low clouds...with low
temps in the 50s near the Red River. Current forecast has a good
handle with the mentioned above and will only add minor tweaks to
hourly temp/sky/dewpoint/wind grids to account for latest trends
and observations.




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