Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 252328
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
628 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through most of the night...with MVFR
cigs developing toward daybreak.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
After cool start to the day, rapid warmup is underway with temps
running 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday. Dew points have
slowly crept up this afternoon as well, and surface obs indicate
low 70s dew points in the Rio Grande valley poised to surge north
by Friday. Surface boundary will move into the area Friday
afternoon and most likely stall nearby, with hot and humid
airmass remaining strongly capped through the day. Some weakening
of the cap noted in forecast soundings for Friday evening, so a
few storms possible during this time. Given available instability
any storms Friday evening could be severe with large hail and
damaging winds, but coverage should be limited.

Still appears a higher end severe weather threat is setting up
Saturday afternoon and evening as extreme instability becomes
focused over eastern OK and western AR in vicinity of sfc
front/dry line, which appears most likely to set up somewhere
between I35 and US75. Shortwave energy moving across the northern
plains will strengthen the flow aloft and also help to weaken the
cap sufficiently for at least scattered thunderstorm development
by mid-late afternoon across eastern OK, likely supercells at
least initially. Damaging hail and downbursts winds practically a
given, with at least some locally-enhanced tornado threat
existing...possibly from storm-scale interactions. Coverage of
storms should expand through the evening with added potential for
flash flooding given the forecast precip h20 values near 2 inches.

Storms should mostly be out of the area by 12z Sunday followed by
a pleasant few days of weather to end the Memorial Day weekend.
Thunderstorm chances should return by the middle of next week as
the pattern looks to be transitioning to early summer just about
on schedule.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  90  69  90 /  10  10  20  40
FSM   65  90  72  89 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   70  91  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   63  88  65  88 /  10  10  20  30
FYV   63  83  67  84 /   0  10  30  30
BYV   64  82  68  84 /   0  10  40  40
MKO   65  88  71  87 /   0  10  10  30
MIO   64  85  66  85 /  10  10  20  50
F10   68  90  70  90 /   0  10  10  30
HHW   69  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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