Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 010959
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
359 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Very cold night in progress...with light winds, no clouds and
temps falling into the low to mid 20s across far northeast OK and
low to mid 30s farther south. Flow aloft will be zonal across the
region today before heights rise in advance of western US storm
system. Temps will be a few degrees warmer today with full
sun...and lighter winds. Upper low becomes cut off near Baja by
Friday night...with increasing clouds through the day Friday.

Widespread light precipitation should develop late Friday across
west TX through OK...within warm advection regime and spread
northeast across OK and western AR by early Saturday morning. It
will be a cold rain across the area on Saturday with eventual clearing
from west to east. Sunday will be the nicer day of the
weekend...although there may be lingering rain showers early
especially across western AR.

There are timing differences between the extended models in the
Mon-Wed period as the upper low ejects northeast into the Plains.
It does appear likely that Monday may be the wetter day...with a
brief warmup on Tue with dry weather...before an arctic cold front
races into the area by Wednesday. Will keep Wed dry for now given
uncertainty with extended guidance. What is certain is that
temperatures will be much below normal by Wed-Thu. Some of the
numerical guidance suggests lows by next Thu morning could drop
into the 15-20 degree range with highs in the 30s/low 40s. This of
course makes us vulnerable for wintry precip events by the mid to
end part of next week...given a massive cold intrusion of air
combined with waves moving through the w/sw flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  36  56  37 /   0   0   0  60
FSM   61  36  61  41 /   0   0   0  60
MLC   62  38  59  40 /   0   0   0  60
BVO   57  28  55  35 /   0   0   0  60
FYV   56  30  56  33 /   0   0   0  40
BYV   55  34  55  34 /   0   0   0  40
MKO   60  35  57  39 /   0   0   0  60
MIO   54  31  55  35 /   0   0   0  40
F10   61  37  57  40 /   0   0   0  60
HHW   62  37  62  43 /   0   0   0  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PLATE
LONG TERM....CORFIDI



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