Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221014
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
414 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TO
THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
AND AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED. THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE
WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE TIMING OF FRONTS LATER IN THE WEEK
SO TEMPERATURES ON SPECIFIC DAYS ARE TOUGH TO PREDICT. THE GENERAL
THEME WILL BE FOR A COOLDOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARMUP TO NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF EACH SUCCEEDING FRONT.

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY BUT
OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  56  66  34 /  70  50  40  20
FSM   60  55  70  38 /  80  70  50  20
MLC   61  57  68  36 /  90  70  20  10
BVO   62  56  65  32 /  60  50  50  20
FYV   59  54  65  33 /  80  70  60  30
BYV   59  54  65  34 /  70  60  70  40
MKO   60  55  67  35 /  90  70  40  30
MIO   61  55  64  33 /  60  60  60  30
F10   61  56  67  35 /  90  60  30  20
HHW   62  57  71  38 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




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