Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
949 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016


Widely scattered showers have developed this morning in the
vicinity of the front stretched along Interstate 44. POPs were
expanded westward earlier this morning, with echoes evident as far
west as Highway 75. Coverage and intensity should remain similar
to the current state, with an increasing trend likely during the
afternoon and into the evening in accordance with increasing
instability. Data trends indicate that the largest increase in
coverage should occur in the very late afternoon and into the
early evening hours, and as a result, the most significant update
to the going forecast has been to push the high chance and likely
POPs to begin at 21Z instead of 18Z. Isolated severe hail and
damaging wind continues to look possible late this afternoon and
early evening, especially across northwest Arkansas, nearer the
local instability maximum. Other, more minor, updates were made
to hourly temperatures to account for observational trends.
Updates already out.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 624 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/

Mainly VFR cigs expected for the first part of the day. Showers
and storms are expected to develop mainly after 21Z from
northwest AR into southeast OK...with storms eventually shifting
out of the region after 06z. MVFR cigs likely with thunderstorm
activity...with possible IFR conditions later tonight for the
northwest AR taf sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/

Surface data at 08z shows a somewhat diffuse frontal boundary from
south central OK into southwest MO. Upper level shortwave moving
across the central Rockies early this morning has induced weak low
level warm advection with a few light showers noted north of the
boundary across southern MO, and some development remains possible
through the morning into northwest AR and far northeast OK. Front
is expected to retreat slightly north during the day, likely
residing somewhere near I-44 this afternoon. Mid level cooling
associated with shortwave passing through central plains along
with diurnal heating will increase instability along the front,
which will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development later
this afternoon. Initial storms will pose a limited threat of
large hail and damaging winds, with the overall severe threat
decreasing through the evening as front begins to push south,
likely undercutting updrafts.

Front will usher in a cooler and drier airmass with temperatures
bearing more of a resemblance to mid-late October. Most areas
should drop into the 40s by Friday morning with some mid-upper
30s likely in normally colder spots. Colder MAV/MET forecast lows
favored over the blended guidance for low temps both tonight and
Thursday night. Quick warm up looks likely for the weekend through
early next week with well above normal temps returning and dry
conditions prevailing through Tuesday.




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