Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 021115
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING MAY AFFECT
KMLC AND KFSM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL CLIP FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
FURTHER WEST...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
BOUNDARY WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND/OR
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...LINGERING
PRECIP CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SWATHS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IN ANY
LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS COULD BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06



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