Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 012353
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MLC/FYV LINE.  ADDITIONAL
PREDOMINATE/TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TIMING
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ACTION IS
LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12




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