Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 281655

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1155 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017



Ceilings are lifting overall as drier air moves into the region.
MVFR ceilings will continue at MLC for the first couple of hours
of the valid TAF period, with VFR conditions prevailing at all
terminals thereafter. There may be some patchy fog in far NW AR
that could lead to a period of IFR visibilities at XNA/FYV/ROG
toward sunrise tomorrow.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 937 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/


Shower and thunderstorm potential has shifted south and east of
the forecast area, with the denser low clouds hanging on along and
south of the boundary stretching through southeast Oklahoma and
into the Arkansas River Valley. Patchy drizzle is evident on KSRX
in the immediate vicinity of the frontal boundary, and while
measurable precipitation has been removed from the forecast, the
drizzle has been added for a few hours this morning. Some low
cloud redevelopment is occurring well behind the boundary, just
south of I-44, which should persist into early afternoon. The near
term Sky cover grids have been adjusted for these expected trends.
Other than these changes to the POP/Wx/Sky grids, the forecast
appears in good shape. Updates already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

Showers starting to shift east of the region this morning with
lingering high clouds from earlier convection currently pushing
into the ARKLATX region. Low clouds are forecast to spread
back into NW AR/SE OK before lifting this afternoon, although
timing remains somewhat uncertain. VFR conditions this evening
into the overnight hours with light winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

A cold front was located from Western Texas through South Central
and East Central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and extended
northeast into Eastern Missouri early this morning. Ahead of the
front...scattered showers and convection remained ongoing with the
bulk of the activity near/just south of the Red River and also
across Central Arkansas. Across Southeast Oklahoma into West
Central Arkansas...a severe thunderstorm watch remained in effect
until 12z as deep layer shear...mid level lapse rates in the
7-7.5C/km and instability interacting with the front could allow
for additional severe potential. However...over the past
hour...severe trends continue to diminish with time. Thus...the
remaining part of the watch will likely be cancelled before the
expiration time. Likewise with the flash flood watch...with most
of the precip located outside of the CWA...have cancelled the
watch for all counties except for Pushmataha and Choctaw.
Though...again...this will likely be cancelled early if current
trends continue.

Through today...scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible over far Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas
through the morning hours and are expected to exit the CWA with
the exiting cold front. Behind the cold front...northerly winds
and temperatures closer to the seasonal average are forecast this
afternoon. Cloud cover should also begin to clear out from west to
east into this evening as an upper level trof axis...associated
with a closed low drifting southeast toward the Great Lakes
Region...moves eastward through the Plains. In response...mostly
clear skies and light winds should be common overnight tonight
which will allow for low temps in the 50s for most locations.

Memorial Day through the work week...dry conditions and
temperatures in the 80s should start the week before another
shortwave drops southeast within the upper flow associated to the
closed low just north of the Great Lakes Region. This will allow
for thunderstorm chances to return to the CWA Tuesday
afternoon/evening across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
and spread over the CWA Wednesday as the wave moves through the
region. Model solutions for the second half of the week indicate a
second shortwave trying to push into the Southern Plains which
will allow for shower and thunderstorm chances to continue into
the start of the weekend for the CWA. For now will continue with
chance pops as details continue to vary between model solutions.
One thing that upper level flow looks to be weaker
over the Plains which should help to limit severe potentials.




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