Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 212027
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL OVERALL OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH IT. THE DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REALLY DROP OFF TONIGHT...WITH
SOME 40S LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS...50S AND LOW 60S
ELSEWHERE. VERY FALL-LIKE DAYS ARE COMING UP TO START THE WORK
WEEK...SO GET OUT AND ENJOY IF YOU CAN.

AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
SURGE UP THE SCENIC ROUTE UP THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER HEIGHT
FIELDS DEVELOPS AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY
UPSTREAM...THUS CREATING A TEMPORARY SPLIT FLOW BLOCK. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WILL BE CAUSED BY A BUCKLING OF A STRONG EXTENDED
JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES CLEAR UP IN CANADA. THE DEEP LAYER MOIST PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER HEIGHT WEAKNESS WILL LIKELY STAY TO
OUR WEST...AND THUS WE SHOULD STAY DRY HERE. ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF TULSA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND TAKES
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS SYSTEM NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AFTER SOME NICE DAYS TO START THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODIFY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN...SO I`M NOT
READY TO WRITE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID DAYS JUST YET. UNTIL A
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO CLEAR OUT THE GULF...MOISTURE WILL NOT BE FAR
AWAY AND CAN RETURN RATHER QUICKLY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  78  57  78 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   57  79  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   59  79  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   49  77  52  78 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  74  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   53  74  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   52  78  54  78 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   50  75  54  77 /   0   0   0  10
F10   55  78  56  78 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   60  81  56  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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