Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 280818
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
318 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The transition to a NW flow regime is underway. The first in what
will be multiple rounds of MCS activity to close out the week is
moving south across western KS early this morning. This complex
is not expected to move into our area. The increasing NW flow in
the mid levels is also shunting the deep layer moist axis that has
been in place over our area the past couple of days to the south
and east. As a result, convective coverage this afternoon is not
expected to be near as great as the past couple of days.

The biggest challenge for this forecast package will be focused on
MCS activity Thursday night and again on Friday night. Some of the
data this morning suggest that tonight`s MCS will track more south
into W/Central OK rather than NE OK. The latest runs of the HRRRX
and the 06z NAM are trending farther east into NE OK. Will go likely
pops to the N and W of Tulsa after midnight tonight, where
confidence is highest.

More than likely another MCS will track across the Plains Friday
night into Saturday as well. The track of this MCS will likely
depend on where the effective boundary is left behind from
tonight`s MCS. The NAM suggests that the effective boundary will
be farther south and thus tracks the MCS across southern OK. The
global models /GFS-ECMWF/ suggest the storm track will be farther
north. Given the uncertainty, and I hate to sound like a broken
record here, I`m inclined to broad brush middle ground pops until
things become more clear. Rising mid level heights and a
retreating boundary suggest that the best chances for storms/MCS
will stay to our north and east on Saturday night. Aside from some
isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms mainly in the
terrain, the weekend will close out on a quiet note.

Mid level ridging will prevail over the region next week. High
temps will climb back into the upper 90s across Eastern OK and
West Central AR. May need another round of heat headlines as a
result. Enjoy the relatively cooler and wetter weather this week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  71  89  72 /  20  50  40  40
FSM   93  73  91  74 /  20  20  40  40
MLC   92  72  91  71 /  20  20  40  40
BVO   93  69  87  68 /  20  50  40  40
FYV   89  68  86  66 /  20  20  40  40
BYV   90  69  87  67 /  30  20  40  40
MKO   93  72  89  71 /  20  30  40  40
MIO   92  69  87  67 /  20  30  40  40
F10   92  72  89  70 /  20  30  40  40
HHW   90  72  92  73 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30


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