Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 312301
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Will include a brief period of VCTS at KROG with TSRA noted
over Carroll county. Activity should diminish with loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise...VFR condtions are expected at all
sites through the TAF period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Summer-like upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS today.
Broad ridging encompasses much of the country...with troughing
over the Pac NW and western Canadian coast. Underneath the
ridging...a weak NE-SW elongated trough/shear axis exists from OH
to TX. At the surface...a weak lee trough extended from the
northern to central High Plains.

Isolated diurnal convection is firing up again today...beneath the
trough axis and in the terrain. Not thinking there will be much
around after 00z...so will leave a silent 10 pop for the evening.
There was dense fog near the KS border last night...and with lows
forecast to dip below crossover temps up there...have inserted a
patchy fog mention. There will be one more day of isolated diurnal
convective potential on Tuesday before the trough shifts east and
south out of our area.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be quiet with ridging
aloft prevailing. Temps will run above average for highs in the
90s. By early next week...models suggest that the Pac NW trough
will slide across the northern tier of states over the top of the
ridge...and will force a cold front south thru the Plains. Looks
like storm potential will increase by Monday night and Tuesday of
next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   69  93  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   70  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   67  93  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  89  67  88 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   66  90  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   67  89  69  90 /  10   0   0  10
F10   69  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   70  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23


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