Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 201733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1133 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017



Main aviation concern is development of fog and low ceilings,
especially at the AR terminals, late tonight and into tomorrow
morning. IFR visibilities/ceilings should prevail for a few hours
early tomorrow morning before improving toward late morning. Some
potential exists at MLC as well, but with confidence not as great
as in AR, will continue with the prevailing MVFR conditions.
Ongoing rain potential will continue for the next few hours at the
AR terminals, with the only likely impact a temporary MVFR
ceiling in any heavier showers.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 946 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/


Back edge of the overnight showers and thunderstorms has pushed
to the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, with a second batch of showers in
northeast Texas pushing northward into southeast Oklahoma
presently. This second push of showers will largely affect areas
along and east of Highway 75 late morning into the afternoon. Any
isolated to scattered thunder potential will be highest in parts
of western Arkansas. Cloud cover is likely to hang around for most
of the day, with perhaps portions of northeast Oklahoma breaking
out mid to late afternoon. Will leave high temperatures untouched
for now, as they are consistent with expected cloud cover and
precipitation trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 538 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/


The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.

MVFR conditions in storms and low clouds will at least temporarily
affect the terminals thru the morning hours. Expect a trend toward
VFR by afternoon, with some brief periods of MVFR in rain showers
possible for the W AR TAF sites. Fog development is possible after
midnight for KMLC and the W AR TAF sites, and IFR or sub-IFR fog
is possible by Tuesday morning.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

The full-latitude upper-level trough will continue to cross the
area over the next 24 hours. The current band of showers and
thunderstorms will slowly translate east today as individual
cells move quickly northward. Some redevelopment of showers is
possible behind the main band this afternoon. The back edge of
the precipitation should still be across western Arkansas and far
southeast Oklahoma at 00Z. Right now it appears the showers will
shift out of the area tonight, but it will be close as a mid-level
low center develops over southwest Arkansas tonight. This will
keep the back edge of the precipitation potential very close to
our forecast area through Tuesday. This upper-low will shift
southward to be over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. This
system will inhibit moisture return ahead of a strong low pressure
system that will track just north of the area Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures Thursday could reach around 80F in parts of
the area as gusty southwest winds occur for a time with the
passage of the system. For now, we will hold off of any rain
chances with the system due to the lack of moisture. There is some
suggestion of another system at the end of this forecast period
that could offer additional precipitation chances late next
weekend or early next week.




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