Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 070517
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1117 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Across NE OK and NW AR TAF sites, expect lower vfr cigs to develop
later tonight which will gradually lower with time. NE OK sites
will probably see MVFR cigs by Wed afternoon, while NW AR sites
likely stay low end VFR thru the period. There is some potential
for light snow as a wave passes by, but shouldn`t be significant
for aviation concerns. To the south at KMLC and KFSM, MVFR or low
end VFR cigs will spread north into these sites over the next few
hours with MVFR cigs persisting into Wednesday. KMLC stands the
best chance of seeing some drizzle and a brief period of IFR cigs.
Winds will turn northerly and generally increase aft 00z tomorrow
evening as the arctic front moves in.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 839 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Lowered temperatures slightly for Tonight and made some adjustments
to the sky grids for the overnight hours. Otherwise, the forecast for
Tonight is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 505 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the TAF period, with the main
exception at KMLC, where MVFR cigs are forecast by Wednesday
morning. High level cigs now will gradually descend ahead of an
approaching storm system, but most sites should maintain at least
low end VFR cigs thru the period. KMLC will be closer to a stalled
boundary down near the Red River and thus cigs will be lower and
in the MVFR range by Wednesday morning.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough that will aid in pushing arctic air into the region
tomorrow currently swinging through the NW CONUS. Limited
moisture in the lowest levels and aloft will limit precip chances
tomorrow afternoon and evening to mainly northeast OK and
northwest AR. Expect temperatures to begin falling from northwest
to southeast tomorrow afternoon...but expect temperatures to
remain above freezing across most of the forecast area through
Wednesday afternoon. Will carry rain or snow across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon...then
chances for light snow Wednesday evening across those same areas.
Precip to quickly end by late Wednesday evening...with any
accumulations up to around 1/2 inch confined to far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Attention turns to significantly
colder air that will impact the plains through the rest of the
work week. Coldest air seen in some time will be realized Friday
morning...with lows between 10 and 20 degrees expected across the
region. Warmer temperatures quickly return this weekend...along
with increasing rain chances across far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas for the latter portion of the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  41  19  33 /   0  30  20   0
FSM   34  45  25  35 /  10  20  30   0
MLC   34  46  23  35 /   0  20  10   0
BVO   26  38  17  31 /   0  40  20   0
FYV   27  43  19  30 /   0  40  30   0
BYV   27  42  19  31 /   0  40  30   0
MKO   32  43  21  35 /   0  20  20   0
MIO   27  40  16  31 /   0  40  30   0
F10   32  42  21  35 /   0  20  10   0
HHW   40  49  28  37 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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