Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 161641
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1041 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low continues to lift northeast this morning with pinch of
drier air moving across the forecast area. Aside from a few light
showers possible along the KS border closer to the low center, and
a few showers or a possible thunderstorm early this afternoon
over western AR, will see a dry day with at least some sun as low
level moisture continues to gradually be scoured out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 534 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The general theme will be improving conditions thru the day. The
strong storm system that has been responsible for the terrible
aviation conditions for the past few days is finally lifting out
and will pull away later today. IFR/MVFR conditions initially will
improve to VFR by the end of the day. Some redevelopment of MVFR
conditions is possible tonight.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low pressure system is finally lifting out of the area
today. Precipitation has almost cleared eastern Oklahoma...and
will continue across western Arkansas for a few more hours.
Lightning has really dropped off within the last hour or
so with strongest convection over eastern TX. Latest surface
analysis shows surface low just west of Tulsa with gusty southeast
winds across eastern Oklahoma. The increasing moisture has
allowed the overnight temperatures to rise into the mid 50s to
around 60 after being in the arctic airmass yesterday.
Temperatures now are around 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago
across eastern Oklahoma.

Dry punch is quickly moving toward the area...and winds will shift
to the west/southwest behind Pacific cold front. This should clear
things out...although the low clouds will be around a few more
hours and wrap around moisture in the northeast may keep skies
from clearing out completely.

Tuesday will bring seasonable temperatures and dry
weather...though another upper wave is forecast to move into the
southern Plains by Tuesday night. This may bring some light precip to
portions of SE Oklahoma.

A blocking pattern develops by midweek...which keeps us safe from
any Arctic air through at least the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  34  50  34 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   66  40  55  37 /  40  10  10   0
MLC   64  35  53  35 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   54  30  50  28 /  20  10  10   0
FYV   62  35  50  31 /  40  10  10   0
BYV   64  38  50  33 /  40  10  10   0
MKO   63  34  51  35 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   59  36  47  32 /  10  10  10   0
F10   59  32  51  35 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   64  40  56  41 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99



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