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000
FXUS64 KTSA 040931
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT AFTER
YESTERDAYS BRUTAL COLD...IT SHOULD FEEL ALMOST WARM BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH WILL
GO A LONG WAY TOWARD MELTING REMAINING SNOW AND IMPROVING ROAD
CONDITIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IMPACTING
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECENT NAM RUNS LOOK TO BE THE OVERWHELMING
OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...AND
AS A RESULT...THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION
FAVORED BY THE GFS/ECMWF. SUFFICIENT COLUMN SATURATION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DELAYED FROM THE
EARLIER FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFFECTING WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME SNOW POTENTIAL AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS DISTURBANCE...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORTLIVED WITH ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM SET TO
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOW TO EXIT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THIS PERIOD TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION MENTION. NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO START OFF ON A WARM NOTE SO THERE IS SOMETHING TO LOOK
FORWARD TO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  22  40  23 /   0   0  50  40
FSM   43  20  42  29 /   0   0  30  40
MLC   44  24  43  29 /   0   0  40  50
BVO   36  21  38  19 /   0   0  50  40
FYV   40  15  44  23 /   0   0  30  40
BYV   41  15  43  22 /   0   0  20  40
MKO   39  22  42  27 /   0   0  40  40
MIO   34  18  41  22 /   0   0  40  40
F10   39  24  41  27 /   0   0  40  50
HHW   44  25  45  31 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22