889
FXUS64 KTSA 300531
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

   - Increasing thunderstorm potential this evening across
     northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, expanding to much
     of the region tomorrow.

   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms expected much
     of this week with locally heavy rains, downburst winds, and
     lightning being the primary hazards. Monday will be the day
     of greatest storm coverage.

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of this week
     with heat indices generally 95-105 F across the area. Some
     minor relief may briefly occur on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The main update to the ongoing forecast has been to incorporate
short-term model guidance into the thunderstorm forecast through
daybreak Monday. Initial round of thunderstorms that brushed far
northeast Oklahoma and moved solidly through northwest Arkansas
are largely on the downswing, with the strongest storms presently
in northeast Oklahoma nearer the high instability on the west side
of the outflow boundary. An additional batch of thunderstorms has
strengthened in the last couple of hours across south central
Kansas and is about to move into areas near the Kansas border. The
expectation is for some severe threat to be maintained into at
least late evening given the instability levels. These should
diminish some toward midnight, with another round toward daybreak
along the weak cold front set to approach from the north. The
early Monday morning storms should present a lesser severe
potential but heavy downpours and localized flash flood potential
will continue. Updated products are already out but expect at
least one more update before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Guidance varies regarding convective evolution tonight, casting
doubt on any one scenario. However, recent CAM runs have begun to
converge on the idea of scattered storms moving south from Kansas
into the CWA late this afternoon and evening. Will hold onto at
least low PoPs across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
during this time frame. There could be a relative lull in precip
during the overnight hours before a boundary/ additional
convection moving through Kansas makes a run for northern
Oklahoma. Again, it is unclear how widespread this activity will
be when it reaches our area, but instability and a strengthening
LLJ should be sufficient to provide an increase in PoPs for
at least northern areas late tonight or early tomorrow morning...
an outcome supported by HREF NPs and MPAS models. As has been the
case lately, heavy rainfall/ localized flash flooding and strong
to damaging wind gusts are the primary concerns with storms this
evening and tonight, though some large hail may occur as well.

Otherwise, conditions will remain similar to previous nights,
with lows in the lower-mid 70s and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing tomorrow
morning in portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
along the previously mentioned outflow boundary. A synoptic front
is forecast to be sinking south through Kansas tomorrow morning,
eventually moving through E Oklahoma during the afternoon and
evening. Additional storm development is likely along the front
and/or remnant outflow boundaries during the afternoon and
evening, with an attendant risk for strong to damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall. Convection will gradually push south over the
course of the day, mostly exiting by late evening or overnight. It
now appears the front should progress through much of the FA,
allowing for a somewhat cooler and drier Tuesday-Wednesday across
the north. Still suspect potential for isolated showers/ storms
Tuesday and Wednesday, but coverage should be much less than
previous days and mainly across southern portions of the area.

Southerly flow returns Wednesday into Thursday, with increasing
temps and moisture for the remainder of the week. Heat indices
should be more manageable Tuesday and Wednesday in the post-
frontal airmass, but will likely rebound into the 95-105 F range
for the remainder of the week as upper ridging moves over the
region. Low PoPs (isolated to scattered) persist to end the week,
with potential for greater rain chances returning by this weekend
as a slow moving shortwave approaches the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Ongoing rain and thunderstorms across NE OK will gradually
dissipate over the next few hours, though light to moderate rain
and intermittent thunder will remain possible through the next
several hours behind the main system. Additional thunderstorm
development is forecast later this morning and through the day
tomorrow as a frontal boundary moves into the region. Multiple
rounds of storms will be possible through the TAF period before
shifting south and east of the area tomorrow evening. Outside of
the thunderstorm impacts, VFR conditions are expected through the
period with generally light winds becoming northerly behind the
front.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  71  90  68 /  50  30  10   0
FSM   94  73  92  72 /  50  50  20   0
MLC   92  71  90  70 /  50  50  20   0
BVO   90  67  89  64 /  50  30   0   0
FYV   90  68  88  65 /  50  40  10   0
BYV   90  68  88  65 /  40  30  10   0
MKO   90  71  89  68 /  50  40  10   0
MIO   88  68  88  65 /  50  30   0   0
F10   90  71  88  67 /  50  50  10  10
HHW   93  72  92  72 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...04