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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171717
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Plume of moisture along with frontal boundary will remain focus
for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon,
mainly across northeast OK and northwest AR. VFR will remain
prevailing flight category, however MVFR conditions will occur
within any thunderstorm cores passing over terminal sites.
Additional cluster of storms may impact eastern OK sites late
tonight into early Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1015 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Enhanced area of convection continues across far northeast OK this
morning, with additional less organized clusters within
subtropical moisture plume extending through large portion of the
southern plains and midwest. Embedded shortwave energy within
moisture plume along with Synoptic frontal boundary moving into
parts of northeast OK this afternoon will provide additional
opportunities for showers and storms through the day, with highest
chances more or less from I-40 north. At the moment only small
chances have been made to the going forecast, based on current
radar trends with additional updates possible later.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Storms have been developing across southeast Kansas ahead of a
cold front. Will allow a short period of VCTS at KBVO this
morning. Otherwise, best chance for storms will be this afternoon
for northeast Oklahoma. VFR conditions expected for the AR sites
and KMLC with thunder chances too low to mention. Models are
hinting at a weakening MCS late in the period which may affect
northeast Oklahoma after 18/06z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast challenge will be rain/storm chances today thru
Tuesday. A secondary challenge will be rain/storm chances late
next week.

Southwest flow continues over the region to the south of a strong
shortwave trough ejecting northeast over the northern Plains. A
plume of mid and high level subtropical moisture can be seen on WV
imagery emanating from Norma in the Pacific up into our region.
Disturbances within this stream have been hard to pinpoint, but
have initiated storms that have affected areas primarily north and
west of Tulsa thus far. Another such disturbance is beginning to
initiate isolated storms west of Tulsa early this morning, with
the potential tracking mainly north of I-44. Another focus for
storms this afternoon will be the synoptic cold front, which
continues southeast across central Kansas this morning. The
boundary will probably stall in the vicinity of the OK/KS border
region later today. The latest runs of the HRRRX, which has done
well lately, suggest scattered storms will develop during the
afternoon across NE OK and then track toward NW AR while generally
weakening this evening. The greatest severe potential will be this
afternoon, with damaging winds the primary threat. Some hail is
possible as well.

The hi-res ARW and HRRRX have also been consistent in suggesting
that convection on the High Plains this afternoon will organize
into an MCS tonight generally tracking northeast mainly along and
north of I-44. Storms should generally be weakening by the time
they make it this far east, thus severe potential looks low at
this point.

Storm chances generally lift north and east of the region on
Monday as the boundary retreats, though will maintain low PoPs
near the KS border with ECMWF showing an approaching wave in the
subtropical jet. This disturbance will move across the region
Tuesday, warranting at least a mention of daytime storms.

A large and amplified upper trough will evolve over the western
CONUS next week, as strong upper jet energy punches into the
nation from the Pacific. The first piece of energy will eject into
the Plains well north of our region midweek, with warm mid level
temps spreading over the region. Will maintain a dry forecast from
Tuesday night thru Thursday with the upper trough staying well to
the west. The 00Z ECMWF has trended slower with the eastward
progression of the trough and surface front. Will maintain only
low PoPs thru next weekend.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  70  90  71 /  50  30  30  20
FSM   91  69  91  70 /  20   0  10  10
MLC   90  69  91  72 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   84  69  87  68 /  50  40  40  20
FYV   85  67  87  67 /  30  10  10  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
MKO   89  68  89  70 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   83  68  85  67 /  60  40  30  20
F10   89  70  90  71 /  30  20  10  10
HHW   92  69  91  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14