Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 030853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will remain over the area through the weekend
resulting in a continuation of above normal temperatures along
with minimal rain chances. Isolated diurnal convection will be
possible by the weekend over the favored terrain areas but pops
are too low to be included in the forecast at this time.
Persistence continues to be the best temperature guidance with low
level thermal fields supporting about a 1 degree Fahrenheit
increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures each day
through the weekend. Either Sunday or Monday will be the hottest
day depending on cloud cover/possible storm outflow by Monday.

The upper ridge breaks down next week allowing a frontal boundary
to approach from the north. The initial approach may be
unsuccessful but may be enough to send some showers/storms and
outflow boundaries into our area resulting in some cooling Tuesday
and Wednesday. The main frontal push looks like it will probably
be delayed until just beyond the range of this forecast so the
greatest rain chances and bigger cooldown will have to wait as
well.

Made some minor adjustments to guidance temperatures based on
observed values the past couple days but overall they are in the
ballpark the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   95  70  96  71 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   93  71  94  72 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   92  66  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   87  64  88  65 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   88  67  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   89  71  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
F10   93  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   94  70  95  71 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.