Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231708
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions through the period, with gusty southerly winds
increasing mid to late morning tomorrow at the OK terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 941 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure will remain across the area today, with
sunny skies and mild temperatures prevailing. Minor tweaks were
made to the sky cover in eastern parts of the forecast area, as
well as high temperatures today. Updated products already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 543 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Light north winds will become light and variable as surface
high pressure settles over the area this afternoon/evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds have been slow to totally clear out of our forecast area,
on the back side of upper low pressure system now in the
Southeast. There are just a few clouds across far southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and these will continue to
decrease this morning. The weather will be great today with light
winds, full sun, and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Next storm system is already moving onshore across northern CA/OR.
Lee side trough will develop across eastern CO/WY today with
increasing winds Monday and Tuesday across eastern Oklahoma.
Temperatures will be warmer as well on Mon/Tue in response to
increased southerly flow and low level warm advection. Next chance
for precipitation arrives Tuesday evening into early Wednesday
morning ahead of cold front approaching from Kansas. Thunderstorms
are expected to form along the front in Kansas by late afternoon
and build southward into northeast Oklahoma by Tue evening. Deep
layer wind shear will increase to around 50kt by that time with
moderate instability in place. This will support strong to severe
storms Tue night into the overnight hours Wednesday.

The rest of the week will bring scattered chances for showers and
storms, with the possibility of heavy rain and severe weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22


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