751
FXUS64 KTSA 291441
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
941 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of the next
     week with heat indices of 95-105 F across the area. Some
     minor relief may briefly occur on Tuesday and Wednesday.

   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms expected much
     of the next week with locally heavy rains, downburst winds,
     and lightning being the primary hazards. Monday will be the
     day of greatest storm coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Hot and humid afternoon expected. 24 temp trends away from
yesterdays precip influence are running a few degrees warmer and
dewpoints are expected to remain near yesterdays values. The
result is a broad footprint of heat index values at or above 105
degrees. While breezy southerly winds may limit wet bulb temps
there is likely to be a window of higher heat stress for afternoon
outdoor activities. Storm chances begin to trend upward by mid to
late afternoon primarily north of Interstate 40 and storm chances
are likely to continue into the overnight hours as storms spread
southward from KS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Shower and storm chances will be on the increase tonight across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a weak cold front
approaches from the north. Storm chances will spread south during
the day Monday, and it is possible that the greater storm coverage
may end up farther south than currently indicated by Monday
afternoon. Strong downburst winds and locally heavy rainfall will
be possible with the storms Monday.

Storm coverage will wane as the week goes on, but never entirely
disappear. Slightly drier air may make a brief intrusion into at
least northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday and
Wednesday before hot and humid conditions return for the rest of
the week. Afternoon heat index values from 95 to 105 degrees will
be common headed into the long holiday weekend next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. Low
chances for thunderstorm development will be possible later this
morning into the afternoon, with chances too low to mention at
this time. Better chances arrive after 00Z across NE OK and NW AR
sites. Reduced visibility will be possible in any thunderstorms.
Otherwise, scattered mid and high cloud with southerly winds
around 10 knots expected through the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  76  91  72 /  20  30  50  30
FSM   95  76  93  73 /  10  10  60  40
MLC   93  76  91  71 /  10  10  50  40
BVO   93  72  90  67 /  20  50  60  30
FYV   91  72  90  68 /  30  20  60  40
BYV   91  72  91  69 /  30  30  60  30
MKO   93  74  91  72 /  10  20  60  40
MIO   92  72  89  67 /  30  50  60  30
F10   93  74  91  71 /  10  10  50  40
HHW   93  74  93  72 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-060>062-
     066-067-070>072-074>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04