Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 250225
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
925 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Surface pressures will rise slowly overnight beneath northwest
mid-level flow.  Only patches of clouds are expected tonight with
very light east to northeast surface flow.  Temps will be cool
for an early Summer evening.  No changes planned to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A beautiful late June day across the region with temperatures in
the upper 70s and low 80s, and light east to northeast winds.
Showers and thunderstorms that were ongoing this morning across
portions of southwest and southern Oklahoma have dissipated and
cloud cover is quickly clearing off if these areas. General
northwest flow aloft will allow these below to near normal
temperatures to continue over the next several days.

Upper level ridging currently in place over the Great Basin will
begin to break down early this week in response to a shortwave
trough moving towards the western coastline and a deeper trough
to the north approaching BC. A few mid-level shortwave troughs
moving through the flow may spark off some convection along the
higher terrain to the west, which will translate east with time.
Models have much of this convection dying off before it reaches
the CWA, but we could still see some remnants work their way into
the northwestern portion of the CWA. In addition, steep lapse
rates may allow for scattered afternoon activity each day through
mid-week, especially as those weak waves move through.

Storm chances increase late in the week with upper trough ejecting
out onto the northern plains. The associated front will push
southward through the Central Plains Friday and into Saturday with
showers and thunderstorms developing along the front. Trough will
quickly trek east and front looks to stall over the area providing
focus for another potential round of convection Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08



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