Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291119
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
619 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
BRIEF MVFR VSBY AT FYV TO START THIS FORECAST PERIOD...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ALL SITES. NERN OK SITES SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN KS/N CENTRAL
OK PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO NERN OK LATE TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED TSRA ALONG/NORTH OF IT. AT THIS TIME...PROBABILITY OF TSRA
AFFECTING ANY ONE SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK BOUNDARY POISED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA
LATER TODAY...WITH LOW END PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT. CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY ALIGNMENT LOOKS GOOD AS THE NRN
ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE AREA. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS THE RETROGRADING RIDGE ALLOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
SLIP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEAN RIDGE
POSITIONING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY
KEEP THE EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND..WHICH SHOULD END RAIN
CHANCES. MODELS HINT AT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE
TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
BEYOND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  92  74 /  10  20  20  20
FSM   99  76  96  75 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   98  75  97  74 /  10  10  30  30
BVO   95  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  20
FYV   94  71  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
BYV   93  68  89  69 /  10  10  20   0
MKO   97  74  95  73 /  10  10  20  20
MIO   94  68  90  70 /  10  10  20  10
F10   97  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  30
HHW   99  74  98  73 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ049-053-060>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...69


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