Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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698
FXUS64 KTSA 221100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
600 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period
with low chance for thunderstorms across eastern OK along with low
VFR ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning...a ridge of high pressure remained positioned
over the Central United States with a longwave trof west of the
Rocky Mountains and another one over the East Coast region. At
the surface...an area of low pressure had set up lee of the Rocky
Mountains with a dryline extending southward through Eastern
Colorado and Eastern New Mexico. Scattered convection had
developed along/near this dryline during the night with some of
the activity dissipating the farther east it traveled away from
the boundary. This allowed for high level clouds to stream
overtop of scattered mid level clouds across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this morning.

Through this evening...scattered cloud cover is expected again
across the CWA with breezy southerly winds as the ridge axis
shifts eastward. Southerly low level flow will help to transport
moisture back into the region...aiding afternoon temperatures to
warm close to the seasonal average today. Like yesterday
evening...scattered convection is forecast to again develop
along/near the dryline this afternoon as the atmosphere
destabilizes. This activity should remain west of the CWA through
this evening. However...there is some potential that clusters of
convection could develop into an MCS and approach/push into the
CWA late tonight and Monday morning. Thus...will carry the higher
pops west of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma late tonight...with
chance pops for much of Eastern Oklahoma Monday morning. Slight
chance pops will be possible for Northwest Arkansas Monday.

This active pattern is progged to continue into the middle part
of the week as the longwave trof remains west of the Rocky
Mountains and the ridge becomes positively tilted from the
Southern Plains to the Great Lakes Region. Thus...west to
southwesterly upper level flow across the dryline interacting with
an increasingly unstable atmosphere will create varying
thunderstorm/MCS chances each day/night for the CWA through
Wednesday. At least a limited severe weather potential will be
possible over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas within any
thunderstorm development each day...though the greater potential
through Wednesday looks to be closer to the dryline over Western
Oklahoma.

During the second half of the week into the weekend...latest model
solutions continue to indicate the longwave trof finally lifting
northeast into the Plains by Friday. This will help to increase
thunderstorm chances across the CWA during this time frame...with
the greater chances Friday into Saturday as the wave moves through
the region. Again...at least a limited severe potential will
remain possible each day within the thunderstorm development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  67  81  68 /  10  20  50  30
FSM   83  63  83  67 /   0  10  20  30
MLC   83  67  81  68 /  10  10  40  30
BVO   81  65  80  66 /  10  20  50  30
FYV   78  59  79  63 /   0  10  20  30
BYV   79  58  79  62 /   0   0  20  30
MKO   82  65  81  67 /  10  10  40  30
MIO   81  63  80  64 /   0  10  40  30
F10   81  66  79  68 /  10  20  40  30
HHW   82  66  82  68 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07



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