Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241459
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL DECK SPREADING WEST FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. FOG ACROSS THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH A FEW PATCHY AREAS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...THUS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST
POPS DEPENDING ON SCALE OF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE HUMBLING EXPERIENCE WHICH WAS YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...I
WILL MAKE ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT IT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WHICH
HELPED TO BRING YESTERDAY`S STORMS HAS NOW SETTLED DOWN TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH NERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OK/AR. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY...MORE SO OVER IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL ACTUALLY BACK DOOR IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH OVER EASTERN OK UNFORTUNATELY...THUS AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL STILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH TIME AS A STRONG SYSTEM
OVER THE PAC NW TOPS THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA. INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE WILL INTENSIFY THE 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE OK WILL LIKELY COME VERY NEAR OR TOP THE CENTURY
MARK BOTH DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT SATURDAY...BUT NONETHELESS HEAT INDICES WILL
WARRANT HEAT HEADLINES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OK AND WEST
CENTRAL AR THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL START THINGS OFF WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE TULSA METRO AND POINTS TO OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE A VERY WARM NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO A LARGER AREA TO DEAL
WITH THE HEAT ON SATURDAY ON FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

THE BIG COOL DOWN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THRU THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT BACK INTO
THE 80S. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
PRECIP TIMING IN A NW FLOW REGIME...SUGGESTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PRECIP EVENT APPEARS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE
EVENT WHICH OCCURRED A WEEK AGO THURSDAY WHICH SHATTERED RECORD
LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS. I HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AND INCREASED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

BOTTOM LINE...AFTER THE BIG HEAT THIS WEEKEND...RELIEF WILL BE ON
THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16




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