National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 132310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE
OVERNIGHT... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AN ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH 700 PM. RH VALUES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RECOVER BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON SURFACE HEATING/
INSTABILITY...COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA/NW ARKANSAS
BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES DURING THIS TIME...KEPT PRECIP ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office