Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191047
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions should prevail through much of the period, with
MVFR ceilings affecting all terminals beginning 06-10Z. Tempo MVFR
visibilities in BR will continue for an hour or two at FSM/FYV.
Gusty southerly winds with gusts 20-25kts will develop late
morning, continuing through early evening. BVO/TUL/RVS may see
TSRA very late in the period, but best chances will hold off until
after 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Today will be a warm, humid, and breezy day to the south of a
frontal boundary that will move into the area late tonight or
early Thursday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin
to increase late tonight across parts of northeast Oklahoma, with
the chances expanding south during the day Thursday with the
frontal boundary. A few strong to severe storms will be possible
during this time frame, but widespread severe weather is not
expected.

Attention then turns to the upper low dropping southeast from the
northern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday night and
Friday. The old frontal boundary from Thursday will stall
somewhere near or south of Interstate 40 Thursday night, and will
likely move little until late Friday, with any northward movement
hampered by widespread showers and thunderstorms to its north.
While elevated hailers cannot be ruled out north of the frontal
boundary Thursday night into Friday, heavy rainfall will be the
greatest threat, with 3-5 inches of rain quite possible to the
north of Interstate 40. Flood watches will likely be needed as the
event draws nearer.

To the south of the front, things are likely to remain relatively
quiet, with warm sector convection looking highly unlikely through
much of Friday. The front will begin a southeastward trek late
Friday and Friday evening, and at this time it is possible that a
line of storms may fire on or immediately on the cold side of the
front, with some severe weather potential, especially if storms
can initiate on the warm side of the boundary.

Some wraparound showers may linger into Saturday, mainly across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Clouds look to hang
around, which will hold temperatures to the 50s across most of the
forecast area. A warming trend will then develop Sunday and
continue into early next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22



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