Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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767
FXUS64 KTSA 180810
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast challenge will be rain/tstorm chances/severity
in the short term. Precip chances next weekend and into early next
week are another item worth noting. An extended period of above
average temps is expected throughout this forecast.

A shortwave trough, embedded within the subtropical jet across
the southern tier of states, was passing by the Four Corners
region and was moving quickly east. An area of scattered storms
was ongoing over the TX/OK Panhandles ahead of this feature. Another
smaller scale feature, or lead impulse, is likely driving the
southern OK MCS.

Let`s address the short term convective trends. Current hi-res
model data indicates that the S OK complex should gradually
weaken with time as it moves into eastern OK this morning. The
latest mesoanalysis from SPC shows considerably weaker instability
over eastern OK compared to central/western OK, so this idea
seems reasonable. The activity over the panhandles will likely do
the same. There is indication that new development could occur
ahead of the wave near and north of the KS border later this
morning however. The morning PoPs and QPF will attempt to capture
the short term convective trends. The lift from the wave should be
exiting quickly to the east by 18Z, so only low PoPs will be
maintained in the east after 18Z. Cloud cover across the north is
expected to hold temps back a bit for today.

A dry forecast can be expected in the wake of the shortwave
trough for the upcoming week. The subtropical jet is expected to
weaken and shift south of our area while the polar jet carves out
a deep trough over the western CONUS. As a result, the subtropical
moisture flow that has brought storms to the region of late will
be cut off. Highs will return to the 90s Tuesday and Wednesday for
most area, with a gradual cooling trend toward the end of the week
as the low level thermal ridge contracts back to the west in a
more amplified flow pattern.

The 00Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS continue to slow down the
eastward progress of the western CONUS trough and associated front
late next week. As such, PoPs have been removed for most of the
weekend, ramping them up quickly as we head toward the beginning
of the next work week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  71  92  74 /  60  10  10   0
FSM   90  70  92  73 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   89  72  92  75 /  60  10  10   0
BVO   84  66  91  71 /  50  10  10   0
FYV   84  66  87  68 /  30  10  10   0
BYV   83  67  88  69 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   86  70  92  73 /  60  10  10   0
MIO   83  68  90  72 /  50  10  10  10
F10   86  72  92  74 /  60  10  10   0
HHW   90  71  91  74 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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