Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 021614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEARLY
STATIONARY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA CONTINUED TO SPREAD
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF CWA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE CWA...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THOUGH...IF THE LATEST IN-HOUSE LOCAL WRF
MODEL VERIFIES THIS AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES COULD BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS AND
FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
AND THE WAVE OUT WEST ALL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION.

CLOUDY SKIES AND EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL AID IN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL TO BE TWEAK
HOURLY POP/WX/TEMP/WIND AFTERNOON GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
THE MENTIONED ABOVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  39  57  25 /  20  30  50  40
FSM   42  39  60  31 /  20  30  70  60
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  20  30  60  60
BVO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  50  40
FYV   40  36  58  25 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   39  36  57  23 /  20  30  70  50
MKO   41  36  58  25 /  20  30  60  50
MIO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  60  40
F10   40  37  59  26 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   43  40  62  35 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12





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