366
FXUS63 KICT 101727
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures by mid-week, persisting through at
  least early next week. Triple digit heat indices Thursday.

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances Tuesday, and again Thursday
  evening through Sunday, mainly over the northern and western
  halves of Kansas. Widespread severe weather potential is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

TODAY--WEDNESDAY...Quiet weather is expected today and tonight. For
Tuesday, a weak surface trough approaching from the northwest,
emanating from shortwave energy traversing the northern CONUS, could
be a focus for a few showers/thunderstorms over mainly the northern
half of Kansas. A rather marginal combination of instability and
deep layer shear should preclude severe weather. With atmospheric
thickness and southerly flow increasing, temperatures will be
warming the next few days, reaching the 90s for most by Wednesday.

THURSDAY--NEXT MONDAY...This period will feature mostly above
average temperatures, with periodic chances for thunderstorms.
Thinking thunderstorm chances will be confined to mainly the
northern and western halves of Kansas. Thursday night through early
Friday chances will be focused in vicinity of a stalling frontal
zone approaching from the north, with Saturday and Sunday chances as
a result of an upper trough approaching from the west. The overall
potential for organized severe weather appears low at this time
given rather weak forcing and only modest at best shear, although a
few locally strong to severe storms are possible. The primary
threats would likely be isolated occurrences of damaging winds and
marginally severe hail.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Quiet VFR conditions are expected at all sites throughout the
period, with winds anticipated to become more southerly through the
overnight and early morning hours. A slight chance of showers at
KRSL and KSLN returns toward the end of the period as a weak system
approaches north central KS early tomorrow morning, but confidence
in timing and location of these remains low at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JK/CDJ