Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
338 FXUS63 KAPX 060654 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 254 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms again later today. - Unsettled weather continues through the weekend. - Warming and drying trend could begin early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Strong, amplified troughing with downstream blocking will continue to pivot over the Great Lakes today and tonight. As the system becomes increasingly vertically stacked with time, the associated surface cyclone will gradually weaken as it spins over Ontario. Forecast Details: Shower/storm chances today -- Ongoing showers and rumbles of thunder will continue to work across parts of northern Michigan over the next few hours before ending later this morning. A brief lull in rain chances is anticipated from around mid morning into the early afternoon before chances for showers and storms return. Sufficient forcing aloft provided by the aforementioned wave pivoting overhead and relatively weak buoyancy (~300 to 1,000 J/kg MUCAPE) will support scattered to numerous showers/storms this afternoon into the evening hours. Primary hazards with this low-topped activity will be lightning, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will be in place today with highs staying in the mid 60s to low 70s for most. Overnight lows look to dip into the 40s for many areas away from the immediate lakeshores. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: A deep upper level closed low continues to move east Friday, gradually taking rain chances with. Most rain chances should be east of the CWA by Friday evening. West to northwest flow and generally cloudy skies should keep temperatures cooler. Brief zonal mid and upper level flow Saturday as around 60 to 70kts move over the central part of the state. A weak surface low will likely accompany this upper jet, giving way to more light precipitation chances Saturday (best chances are over northern lower at this time). An upper level ridge will start to accelerate southward over the Hudson Bay Sunday, and will elongate a shortwave extending towards the northern plains from the previous closed low to our east. This will lower heights aloft once again, and use recycled moisture for some more rain chances Sunday. Warmer and drier weather looks to arrive Monday, however some guidance suggests more rain later next week. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Confidence in the pattern remaining wet and unsettled is high as anomalous moisture is already circulating around the closed low to our north and guidance doesn`t suggest anything to push it out (deterministic or ensembles). There will be breaks from the clouds and rain, however generally chances remain in the forecast for this weekend. There is run to run consistency on an upper level ridge moving down from Hudson Bay, the inconsistencies have been what that does to the feature in front of it (the upper closed low/shortwave). Guidance leans more towards a shortwave and resulting rain from this for Sunday, with the ridge building in Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1139 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Expect passing periods of clouds and a few showers through this taf period. Trends support cloud bases to primarily remain VFR for areas of northern lower Michigan, with MVFR cigs spreading back across KCIU this morning. West to southwest winds will become a touch gusty later this morning and afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...MB