Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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797 FXUS63 KAPX 240345 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers Friday night into early Saturday. - More showers likely Sunday night into Memorial Day, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 941 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 All is quiet across our Northwoods late this evening with weak high pressure and dry air remaining in place across all of Michigan. Diurnal clouds have dissipated...leaving clear skies across our entire CWA. Surface winds have become mainly light as low levels begin to decouple. Little will change for the remainder of the night. Overnight lows will cool into the upper 30s and lower 40s across Eastern Upper Michigan and into the 40s across all of Northern Lower Michigan. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current satellite shows a healthy field of fair weather CU across most of northern MI. Plenty of sunshine with breezy to slightly gusty west winds are allowing ample mixing. Clear skies tonight with winds quickly diminishing later this afternoon/evening. Temperatures will feel cooler tonight, possibly dipping down into the high 30s over eastern upper. Upper level heights continue to increase Friday, leading to generally calm winds and warm temperatures. Winds turn south as a surface low approaches the northern plains, allowing spots like Traverse City to reach into the low 80s (aided by down sloping). Drier air will be seen in the afternoon hours as mixing heights rise, however winds should remain light as they turn south. Clouds will start to move overhead Friday evening as the next shot of rain approaches from the west. Primary Forecast Concerns: Areas along the Lake MI coast could see some gusty south winds Friday late afternoon/evening as the next system approaches. At this time, most guidance keeps minimum humidity values in the 30s to high 20s with winds remaining calm (the forecasted surface pressure gradient likely isn`t strong enough). With that said, a few locations west of I-75 could see some gusts coincide with lower humidity values, as a few spots could get drier than expected with warm temperatures and the drying that occurred today. However, all of these concerns are very marginal as top wind gusts forecasted for Friday late afternoon are 15 to 20 mph. Due to this, we held off on mentioning elevated fire weather conditions for Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: No major changes to the forecast overall with a semi-active pattern still expected to continue into at least early next week. The first system of interest is evident on water vapor imagery across the northern Rockies which is expected to brush the western Great Lakes Friday night into early Saturday. This system is likely to produce some showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder (although instability is rather weak). There will then likely be a break in the action for much of Saturday and Sunday due to short wave ridging. The next system likely to affect the region after that is now located just south of Alaska in the northeast Pacific. Expecting a bigger surface response with this one with the potential for a longer duration rain event and perhaps some wind Sunday night into Monday (maybe even lingering into Monday night). There is a decent amount of uncertainty from there with model differences on whether there is lingering troughing or increasing ridging as we head toward the middle of next week. Temperatures overall are expected to be near to a few degrees below normal over the next several days (except perhaps Sunday which is forecast to be a few degrees above normal). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Weak high pressure will hold over Michigan overnight into Friday morning...before a cold front moves into the Western Great Lakes region Friday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will hold over our region thru Friday evening....but cigs will begin to drop toward low VFR late Friday evening as showers and a few thunderstorms begin to move into our area ahead of the upstream cold front. Light/variable surface winds overnight will become E/SE around 10 kts on Friday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...MLR