Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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113 FXUS63 KAPX 221551 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1151 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms chances this evening for eastern upper. - High swim risk across most Lake Michigan counties. - Showers in the eastern U.P. Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1139 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Satellite shows extensive cloud cover persisting around northern MI this morning, which has been keeping temperatures cool. The exception is NE lower, where clouds are scattering out and allowing temperatuers to jump back into the mid to high 70s. Models place the surface low over SW Ontario this morning. Southwest winds will become gusty as an upper level wave will move stronger winds aloft over the region this afternoon. The only surface feature today will be a trailing front from the surface low moving east over Canada. Eastern upper will have slight chances for a thunderstorm or two from this, however it remains a weaker environment. High swim risk remains a threat for the coastal locations of Lake Michigan this afternoon due to these gusty winds and colder water temperatures. A forecast challenge tonight could be the potential for patchy fog in a few places. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Potent shortwave troughing will continue to lift across the northern Great Lakes over Ontario today as broader troughing settles over most of the north-central CONUS. This system will become increasingly vertically stacked with time as the associated sub- 990mb surface cyclone pivots from the Upper Midwest into Ontario later today. Forecast Details: Thunders linger into the morning hours -- Multiple thunderstorm line segments continue to work across northern Michigan and the Great Lakes waters. These storms are expected to sustain themselves over the next several hours into the morning amidst elevated instability on the order of 500-1,000 J/kg and strong shear in excess of 40 kts. This environment will continue to support strong thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and small hail. Most storms will track across areas that have already been convectively overturned so far tonight, giving low confidence in severe wind gusts reaching the surface with any storms -- although a non-zero severe threat still remains, including any storms along/out ahead of remnant outflow boundaries. Storm chances will diminish into mid/late morning as favorable forcing becomes increasingly displaced from northern Michigan. Otherwise, a short break in precip chances may materialize before additional scattered showers return to the eastern U.P. into this evening. High swim risk for most Lake Michigan counties -- Southwest to south- southwest winds around 15 kts with gusts between 20-30 kts will bring a high swim risk to most Lake Michigan counties today due to dangerous waves and currents. The exceptions will be Grand Traverse and Antrim counties as Grand Traverse Bay will be sheltered from strongest winds/waves, and is expected to remain below criteria. Regardless of swim risk for your area, cold water temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s Fahrenheit will still bring the risk of hypothermia for those in the water without proper equipment/protection. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Cutoff low set to be slowly moving east from Hudson Bay on Thursday as ridging begins to intrude into the Great Lakes. Weak wave riding progressive flow regime coupled with lingering moisture in conjunction with the departing low will be enough to spark some diurnal showers across eastern upper through the afternoon on Thursday. Lesser moisture concentration and aggressive mixing should erode most shower chances across northern lower. Ridging axis moves overhead for Friday, with southerly flow dominating. Result will be a return of summer like warmth as highs rocket back into the upper 70s and lower 80s (perhaps mid 80s for some). Next rain chances show up as shortwave trough and associated surface low pass through Lake Superior Friday night into Saturday morning. On its heels, another wave passes into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. Current thinking is that this wave stays well to the south and we hold on the drier side of things. Primary Forecast Concerns: Thursday Showers in the Eastern Yoop: Diurnal instability progged at several hundred joules should be able to generate some showers in the eastern Yoop Thursday afternoon with the help of a subtle perturbation passing through the upper Great Lakes. Unidirectional flow and some speed shear creates more of a linear hodograph. Outflow dominant showers and some thunder appear possible, and perhaps a storm approaches marginally severe status at peak heating. Primary hazards will be gusty winds and small hail. Weekend Outlook: Warm temperatures expected Friday as ridging moves overhead with southerly flow. Given 850mb temps in the low to mid teens Celsius and good mixing, should be enough to rocket temps well into the 80s across northern lower and low-to-mid 70s in the eastern Yoop. Quick moving area of low pressure passes into Lake Superior Friday night, and its attendant cold frontal boundary is progged to bring about some scattered showers into the overnight hours Friday night. Given the efficiency of mixing Friday, might make instability hard to come by, so not a lot of stock being put into this rain chance. Big story will be the more seasonable air in its wake, with highs falling back into the 60s and 70s for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Presence of high pressure could lead to some pretty aggressive diurnal cooling responses in the overnight hours this weekend, so may need to watch for an outside frost / freeze threat if clear skies can accompany decoupling winds. Larger system set to pass to the south to close out the holiday weekend. Dry northerly flow from high pressure over Ontario should stunt northward advance of rainfall associated with this system, so my inkling is that the rest of the holiday weekend probably holds dry, save for perhaps a shower or two near Saginaw Bay Sunday night into Monday owing to their closer proximity to the passing low. All in all, definitely a much drier weekend than not. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 649 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 MVFR CIGs are expected to settle in across the western TAF sites of MBL, TVC, and PLN over the next few hours. IFR/LIFR CIGs may linger for the next few hours at CIU as well, but should lift to MVFR by mid morning. VFR conditions are anticipated across northern lower Michigan by mid afternoon, and perhaps a slightly later across the eastern U.P. Mainly southwest winds around 15 kts with gusts between 20-30 kts today will weaken heading into tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016-020- 025-031-095-096-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322. && $$ UPDATE...ELD SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...DJC