Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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931
FXUS63 KABR 281151 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
551 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Frontogenetic band of snow is finally beginning to wane across the
eastern CWA, but a broader area of light snow remains. Focus is now
shifting back to the west where a compact wave of energy moving into
western SD is producing another area of snowfall. Radar echoes have
been increasing over northwest SD with activity looking to move into
the western CWA over the next couple hours. Will have to increase
POPs even more over the western CWA through the early morning hours
and may even have to extend/insert POPs into the forecast further
east. Fairly difficult POP forecast through the day and into tonight
as several pieces of energy look to skirt across the area with
chances for light snowfall that models may not be picking up on the
best.

Will then be watching a couple clipper systems sliding southeast
across the Dakotas. First wave moves into the area by Wednesday
morning, with the second piece of energy moving in late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Both of these clippers will bring a
chance of snow to mainly the eastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 410 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The long term period looks be mainly dry across the CWA with much
above normal temperatures. The period begins surface high pressure
over our region with upper level ridging to our west/troughing to
our east. This will all build east as the upper level flow goes from
northwest to west as troughing develops along the west coast into
the weekend. This trough will move east across the northern part of
the country affecting our region Sunday night into Monday. But
first, a weak clipper wave will be coming across our CWA late
Thursday night through Friday. Only have in small chances of
precipitation for the northeast corner of the CWA for Friday
morning. Otherwise, the next chance of precipitation will be Sunday
night and Monday. At this time, the models were not to keen on much
of any precipitation with this upper low pressure trough. With
Pacific air dominating through the period, highs will be mainly in
the 40s and 50s with maybe some lower 60s in central South Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

A couple areas of lift today could bring some light snow
and reductions in visibility to mainly PIR and ATY, mainly in the 2
to 5 mile range. Otherwise, low stratus IFR/MVFR ceilings will
dominate across the region through tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr



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