Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 051200 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
700 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS CWA BETWEEN 12-18Z.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT. WHILE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THE BIGGEST
THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST BASED ON EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS EXCEEDING
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO A LACK IN MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY VIA BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AS THE DRIER AIR PUSHES THROUGH. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW LOOK AND FEEL TO IT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THAT
TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS HANDLE WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ACTIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION
SEQUENCE POTENTIALLY SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSIENT S/W
AND SOME HEFTY DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40 TO 50 KNOTS PROGGED OFF THE 00Z
GFS/ WITH MINIMAL CAPPING INVERSION MID-LEVEL TEMPS CURRENTLY
SHOWING UP MID-WEEK.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD IT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW PATTERN
BUCKLES...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT. SO THE MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
SHOULD PERSIST...BUT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS COOL SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES UNDER THIS REGIME...POTENTIALLY LEAVING THE CWA FACING
AVERAGE TEMPS ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE POLAR FRONT IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THIS CWA. IN FACT...EARLY
THIS MORNING IT HAS SNUCK DOWN THROUGH THE KMBG TERMINAL SWITCHING
WINDS THERE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND DRAWING DOWN THE IFR CLOUDS
AND FOG/POOR VISBY WITH IT. KABR WINDS HAVE ALSO SWITCHED TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION HERE THIS MORNING. BUT...FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE ROUGHLY 40
MILES WEST OF KABR. NOT OVERLY EASY TO DISCERN TRENDS IN MOVEMENT
WITH HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS FILLING IN NOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE KABR
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF THE IFR STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING. AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH SOME...ALLOWING
KABR/KMBG TO SEE WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY.
KPIR AND KATY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE PREVAILING VFR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS GATHERING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST TODAY BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ALL FOUR
TERMINALS AT SOME POINT. ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE/INSTABILITY THE CWA SEES TODAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



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