Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 212319 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
619 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Band of light rain continues to push eastward into the James valley,
but as expected, things have begun to diminish in areal coverage.
Will continue to see this trend over the next few hours and will be
going with a dry forecast beginning at 00Z this evening. Clouds will
also depart from southwest to northeast through the evening and
overnight as winds eventually become light. Lows will get chilly
with readings in the 30s, and would not be surprised if they get a
few degrees lower than forecast in spots.

Warm air advection and drier air move back in on Sunday.
Temperatures will rebound back into the 60s and lower 70s. Winds
will become breezy and gusty again by afternoon and fire danger will
become a concern. Forecast RH values bottom out in the 20s across
much of the CWA, although a bit too marginal to warrant any fire
weather headlines at this time. Wind may be a bit marginal too, but
if there is any fire zone that could flirt with criteria, it would
be zone 268. So, something to keep an eye on - high to very high
fire danger nonetheless.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The models show very good agreement now from even the previous run
with the upper level flow and short wave troughs affecting our
region from Sunday night through Saturday. For Sunday night into
Monday, the models show a short wave trough sliding across the
Northern Plains and to the southeast. As it digs southeast, a large
upper level low pressure trough/area will develop over the eastern
U.S. while sharp upper level ridging develops over the western U.S.
The short wave trough coming through will bring slight chances of
light rain for Sunday night. Our region will be under northwest flow
through the middle of the week with dry conditions along with high
temperatures near to 10 degrees above normal. The warmest day will
be on Wednesday before the bottom falls out. Highs should be mostly
in the 60s on Wednesday.

The models all then show a short wave trough coming in from the
northwest and into our region Wednesday into Thursday. This system
digs in and intensifies over our region and moves only slowly east
through Saturday. This will bring in the coldest air of the season
for Thursday through Saturday with deep northerly flow from Canada.
Highs for Thursday through Saturday are currently forecast to be in
the 40s. With as low as some of the thicknesses are forecast along
with 85h temperatures, there could be some mid to upper 30s for
highs on Friday. Will likely have to cool it down in later
forecasts. Otherwise, have in some chances of rain and possibly snow
from Thursday into Friday mainly across the northern and eastern


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period, with slackening
winds this evening. Skies should gradually clear from west to east
later tonight.




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