Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 232326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH A VERY SLOW EASTERLY MOTION. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IT LOOKS LIKE
PATCHY FOG IS A PRETTY GOOD BET LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES HOLD OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN FACT MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARING TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
SO...EXPECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING
TO UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
VERY STRONG WARM SIGNAL EXISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MONDAY
TIMEFRAME AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THESE AIR MASSES WILL BE REINFORCED REPEATEDLY BY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH.

INCONSISTENCY STILL EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO WHEN THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME EARLY TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IMPINGES ON IT. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING AN END TO THE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL BLEND
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT.
KATY AND KABR WILL BE AFFECTED THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. IFR/MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST...INCLUDING AT KABR AND
KATY...THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS IN FOG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND WILL BECOME DOMINANT ACROSS THE EAST BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TVT
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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