000
FXUS63 KABR 161745 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES THERE AS THE CLOUDS MAY
HINDER THE WARM UP.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION EXTENDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST CWA...ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
ALREADY SEEING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP WEST RIVER HOWEVER...SO
ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS H925 READINGS TOP OUT BETWEEN +9 AND -1C.
ONLY CAVEAT THAT WILL LIMIT HIGHS IS THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST
DUE SOUTH AND THUS NOT AT PEAK EFFICIENCY. SAME GOES FOR MONDAY AS
H85 TEMPERATURES JUMP TO +12 TO +6C...A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
CLIMO.

NOT REAL THRILLED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CWA WITH ANY OF THE WEAK WAVES/SURGES IN WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA...MAINLY THANKS TO
WARM/DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ALOFT.

MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING CONSISTENCY
ISSUES. THE GENERAL TREND FROM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...SO WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AS SUCH WILL INITIALLY SEE
RAIN. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG CAPE WEST RIVER...SO A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT. FORCING INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. GFS OMEGA VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 40 MICROBARS...AROUND THE
TIME PROFILES TRANSITION TO SNOW. THUS...LOOKS LIKE THERE REMAINS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE CWA...THOUGH LOCATIONS VARY BETWEEN MODELS.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. A DECENT SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO QUICK MOVING AND WEAKER SYSTEMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS LOW...AND
THEREFORE ITS PRUDENT TO STICK WITH THE MODEL BLEND/SUPER BLEND
GIVEN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS AROUND 1000 FT STILL HANGING IN AT THE KPIR AND KMBG
TERMINALS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS DEPARTING KPIR
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...WITH ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WAIT AFTER THAT FOR
KMBG. ELSEWHERE...AND AFTER THE LOWER CIGS CLEAR...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN