Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 050900
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
400 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CROSSING NORTH DAKOTA TODAY WITH LITTLE PCPN
EXPECTED FOR THIS CWA. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER AS ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY AND SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THIS CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LOW SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN THE LLJ OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 6Z THURSDAY. THE
LLJ IS BEST ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z. THIS LLJ...ALONG
WITH SOME INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS. THE
ENDING TIME OF THE MORNING CONVECTION COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR ENOUGH
BY THE AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE
I-29 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
BE LOCATED. AN A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THE
FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA...OR THE SISSETON AREA. THIS IS WHERE
THE WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT...AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE COLLOCATED.
0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES PEAK AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SUPERCELL
COMPOSITE PARAMETER REACHES 24. THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOES
MENTION A TORNADO THREAT AND HAS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN CWA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. ALL THAT SAID...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ADDING SEVERE INTO THE FORECAST AS THERE SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE OUT PERIODS IS SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD /MODELS STILL NEEDING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THAT/. DURING THE OUT PERIODS AND WHILE
UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW...THE CWA ENDS UP IN A TEMPERATURE TUG-OF-
WAR...TAKING TURNS BEING INFLUENCED BY COOLER/DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
AND WARMER/HUMID AIR POSITIONED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...VISIBLE FROM THE KMBG TERMINAL...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CWA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN


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