Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231804 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
104 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. FIRST...RAIN
SHOWERS ARE NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING...BUT POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN AS INDICATED BY
RADAR OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA. THEREFORE...STARTED TO CANCEL
SOME OF THE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...LEAVING ONLY
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE WATCH. LIKEWISE...REALLY CUT
BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO DROPPED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT.

CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE
THINNING...WITH ISOLATED BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER NOW APPEARING. THE
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...THE GREATER THE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
STORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE SEVERE
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

RAINFALL PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AS WELL. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVIDENT ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK...TAKING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY AND UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHIFTING NOTED IN QPF AMOUNTS A
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE STILL PICKING UP ON SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. VERY COMPLEX
FORECAST SHAPING UP TODAY AND TONIGHT CONCERNING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE STILL
VERY IMPRESSIVE IN REGARDS TO SHEAR...BOTH DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY. BUT...AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR A
COUPLE DAYS NOW...IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE OR THINNING IN THE CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE EXTRA HEAT AND INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
IT STORMS CAN IGNITE LATER TODAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT.
GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
AREAS NOT IN THE FLOOD WATCH...BASICALLY FROM ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

CONCERNING POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS.
CUT BACK ON SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER WEST ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING WRAP AROUND PRECIP MORE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS
ALSO SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO JUST THE SOUTHWEST CWA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE OUT PERIODS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. STILL APPEARS TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL TO START THINGS OFF
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOWCASING
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS RESPECTIVELY...EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED.
LOW LEVEL WAA LOOKS TO KICK BACK INTO HIGH GEAR...THOUGH...BY
THURSDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF
BREAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES PICK
UP AGAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION DAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE WARM FRONT KICKING NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING AS
THEY LIFT QUICKLY NORTH. ALSO...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO
END AND CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT. IT COULD GET BREEZY FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-
     CORSON-DEWEY-STANLEY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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