Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 290549 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1249 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 848 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A few more weak showers and mid level clouds streaming down from
the northwest this evening with a mid level vort lobe. Thus,
adjusted weather and pops for the rest of the evening.

UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Shortwave activity on the back of an upper trough is generating some
showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. Some of
these showers have been producing 50 mph wind gusts and small hail.
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening after sunset.
Skies will clear by midnight and temps will fall off rapidly. Nudged
overnight lows a bit lower than guidance given the low dewpoints.

As the upper trough pushes further south tonight and Monday, low
clouds will move over the eastern Dakotas. Steadier light rain or
drizzle is possible east of the James River for Memorial Day. Temps
will cool across the area tomorrow, as well, with highs only in the
60s expected. Winds, however, will increase out of the northwest
again and remain gusty especially across the eastern cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Will continue to advertise temperatures a tick below blended
guidance for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as Canadian high pressure
settles overhead with 850mb temperatures bottoming out across the
forecast area between +1 and +4C, about a standard deviation below

Will maintain blended guidance as GFS BUFKIT soundings support
elevated instability and a low level jet early Thursday.
Temperatures remain cool in the mid levels, but will be warming as
there is upper ridging moves out of the Rockies and into the plains

As the previous forecaster also alluded to, there is trough that will
attempt to push through the upper ridge across the center of the
nation. Guidance continues to generate some convection surrounding
this feature, though models diverge on how to best handle this
feature as it is expected to weaken as it moves overhead with the
possibility that the upper ridge re-strengthens in its wake as we see
an upper low deepen over the Pacific Northwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Expect low clouds (generally 2500ft agl to 4500ft agl) to move
down from the north tonight/early Monday affecting mainly ABR,
MBG, and ATY. Some scattered showers are also expected to develop
on Monday as another upper level trough comes down from the north
and could affect ABR and ATY.




LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Dorn is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.