Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261153 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
653 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

12z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

A 500 mb low over eastern Montana will slowly cross the region
today. This system will continue producing showers in the eastern
CWA through the mid-morning hours. GOES-16 low level water vapor
does show dry air moving into south central SD. The dry air will
continue advecting north-ne through this afternoon with clearing
skies possible for our western CWA. By tonight, a surface high
pressure will be located over the region with mostly clear skies.
With a cold airmass in place, lows tonight should drop into the 30s
and low 40s for most locations. Patchy frost will be possible in low
lying areas.

The rest of the short term will feature dry conditions with
temperatures near to above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

The long term starts off with a surface high pressure area in
Canada building southeast and into the Great Lakes region from
Thursday night into Saturday. Therefore, light northeast winds on
Thursday night will turn southeast into Friday and increase into
Saturday as the surface pressure gradient tightens up and the
stronger winds off the surface mix down on Saturday. This will also
result in a warm up from Friday into Saturday. Saturday will
probably be even warmer than what is in the current forecast.
Although, some mid and high level clouds from an upper level system
kicking through may hold temperatures down a little. Otherwise,
expect it to be windy on Saturday.

The models all show a short wave trough lifting out of the southwest
U.S. and across the western part of our region Thursday night
through Saturday. The models hint at some spotty qpf with this
system but at this time left it dry for our CWA. Just expect the mid
and high level clouds with it which may affect temperatures as
referred to earlier. Otherwise, a much stronger upper level low
pressure area out west will kick into and across our region later
Saturday night into Monday. This will bring a surface front/trough
across the region Sunday afternoon and night. The models all have
some qpf with this front/trough and upper level trough for Sunday
and Sunday night. Therefore, have in some good chances of rain
showers. Monday looks to be dry at this time with west to southwest
winds with lower humidity and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will
be just above normal through the entire long term in the upper 60s
to the mid 70s and maybe higher for both Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

The light rain showers will exit the ATY area early this morning.
Otherwise the MVFR, ocnl IFR early, ceilings are expected to remain
at ATY and ABR today with VFR sct-bkn clouds at PIR and MBG.




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