Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 192035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
335 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the short term. A narrow
corridor of 500 J/KG of surface base CAPE, along with weak upper
level support will produce isolated showers through this evening.
The far northeast portion of the CWA has the best potential of
seeing pcpn. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible
between 10pm and 2 am in our far NE portion of the CWA. Models shows
a shortwave tracking southeastward across the are during that time
period. With limited instability, severe storms are not expected.
However gusty winds are possible.

The combination of upper level ridging and surface high pressure
will bring dry conditions on Tuesday. Cool temperatures will continue
in the eastern CWA with highs in the lower 70s. In the west,
increasing southerly winds will produce highs in the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The extended period starts off with the region between an upper
level trough to the east and ridging to the west. By midday
Wednesday, the flow becomes nearly zonal over the region and remains
that way until a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest on
Friday. The trough slowly pushes through Friday and Saturday, with
northwest flow then remaining dominant through the rest of the

At the surface, high pressure will exit the region Tuesday night
with low pressure moving in from the west. This boundary will likely
be the focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon,
mainly across the eastern part of the CWA, where the best
instability and shear set up. Strong to severe storms are certainly
possible. Unsettled conditions will lead to continued precipitation
chances Thursday through Saturday, but should be more in the form of
showers to a few weak thunderstorms. High pressure settles in Sunday
and Monday, bringing a return to dry conditions.

Decent WAA will occur on Wednesday, with high temperatures well into
the 80s. Will then see a gradual cool down with highs in the mid 70s
to lower 80s Thursday, in the lower to mid 70s Friday, and in the
mid to upper 60s Saturday before near normal highs in the 70s return
Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the valid
taf period. Breezy northwesterly winds and afternoon clouds will
dissipate around sunset. A storm system tracking southeast across
the region tonight could bring thunderstorms and gusty winds to
the terminals of KABR/KATY. Thunderstorm confidence is low so will
leave vcts out of the tafs.




LONG TERM...Parkin
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