Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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158
FXUS63 KABR 182333 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...AND PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THIS AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN UNDER THE LOW STRATUS
ALL DAY HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES REALLY STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40 DEGREES.
MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST ZONES STRADDLING EITHER SIDE OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER HAVE SEEN SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S.

TONIGHT.../HIGH CONFIDENCE/ COLD DRY CANADIAN-SOURCED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE TAKING UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THIS REGION...CREATING
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AMID A CLEAR SKY AND WINDS
GOING LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S FAIRLY EASILY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA /I-29 CORRIDOR EASTWARD/ MAY HAVE A TOUGHER TIME
CROSSING OVER INTO SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY AS LOW CLOUDS AND BREEZY
WINDS COULD HANG AROUND LONGER INTO THE NIGHT THERE. BUT THEN
AGAIN...THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO TEMPS DON`T HAVE THAT FAR
TO GO TO REACH FREEZING OR LOWER. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...CONTINUING
WITH A FREEZE WARNING CWA-WIDE FROM 1 AM CDT TUESDAY TO 8 AM CDT
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.../HIGH CONFIDENCE/ STILL EXPECTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT
OVER THE SWRN CONUS LIFTING UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE BEING
SHEARED OUT...GLANCING THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES /MAINLY THE I-90
CORRIDOR/ WITH SOME LIGHT QPF. IF A KILLING FREEZE OCCURS
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO ISSUE ANYTHING FROST/FREEZE
RELATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT
LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S...FROST
OR FREEZE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED FOR AREAS THAT DON`T
GET THERE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SWINGS
NORTHEASTWARDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH TO VARYING
DEGREES...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING MORE INTENSE SYSTEM PROVIDING SOME
LOW CAPE AND HIGHER QPF COMPARED TO THE MORE MUNDANE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE MOST
PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNTIL IT CLEARS...KABR/KATY CAN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
     TUESDAY FOR SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...TDK



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