Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 310228 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
928 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA...BUT LOOK TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY DO. WILL HOLD ON TO
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR CORSON...DEWEY AND STANLEY
COUNTIES FOR NOW. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO THE TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT
OF THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
STRATUS DECK THAT PLAGUED THE EASTERN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY IS
FINALLY TURNING INTO MORE OF A SCT/BKN STRATOCU FIELD...AND HAS
HELD TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THEN AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SFC LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
WYOMING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
SD WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT
BACKED OFF MUCH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL EXPECTING STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN ND...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK ACROSS SD. WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DEGREE
OF ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGHEST OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD.

WILL THEN LOOK TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BEST INSTABILITY STILL SETS UP EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM MINNESOTA INTO IOWA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY EAST OF I-29 DOES DEVELOP SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY AND COULD SEE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.
BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL DEFINITELY SET UP EAST OF HERE.

ASIDE FROM THESE TWO MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE POST FRONTAL
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SETUP MONDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THIS PARTICULAR WAVE APPEARS A BIT WEAKER.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
GENERALLY FLAT/FAST MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER SHOULD CROSS THE AREA SOMEWHERE IN THE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ARE FASTER THAN THE
GFS AND THUS DRIER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL BLEND GAVE
SOMEWHAT HIGH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT DECIDED TO TREND
TOWARD FASTER CONSENSUS THAT WAY WE CAN TAKE OUT POPS IF FASTER
TREND CONTINUES. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOME LOW CLOUD COVER MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST AROUND SUNRISE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KABR
AND KATY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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