Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170917
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

A downslope wind event is ongoing along the eastern side of the
Sisseton hills where gusts of 55 mph have been reported at Peever.
While there is limited snow cover, the Peever webcam does suggest
snow is blowing across I-29. Hi-res models are fairly consistent
with showing the downslope wind event continuing beyond 18Z before
subsiding. Thus will mention patchy blowing snow until temperatures
reach the lower 30s.

Southwest to westerly winds today will bring above normal
temperatures into the region with highs likely reaching the mid 20s,
to the lower 40s. These readings are five to 15 degrees above
normal. A clipper system tracking northeast of the region will
create a well mixed environment tonight with lows in the teens above
zero. While a weak downslope wind event is possible tonight, warm
temperatures today should limit the blowing snow potential.

Above normal temperatures will continue Thursday and Friday with
highs in the upper 30s and lower 50s expected. A frontal boundary
will slide across the region on Friday with winds becoming
northwesterly.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

The main challenge for the long term will be the storms this coming
weekend/early next week. But, first off, mid level ridging over the
region will bring dry and mild conditions to the area to start the
weekend. However, a progressive long wave pattern will allow for a
mid level trof to move into the Central Plains on Sunday and Monday.
A head of the system, light WAA precipitation will spread out across
the region Saturday night into Sunday. However, the main developing
deformation zone is expected to set up south of the area Sunday
night and Monday. The GFS/ECMWF are in fair agreement on this.  The
CMC is further north. GEFS QPF plumes still show quite a bit of
uncertainty in pcpn amounts with the storm, so there remains a
pretty good chance there`ll be some shifts in the storm track with
future model runs. One notable change in the most recent plumes is
that most members now are cranking out less than a half inch of QPF,
where as before there were a number of members featuring greater
than an inch of QPF.

Temperatures will start the period above normal, but then should
trend back toward normal as the storm moves across the plains on
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Wednesday at all
locations.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Mohr



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