Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241601 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1101 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 1059 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

No changes planned this morning. Fog is just about burned off now,
and temperatures amid a mostly sunny sky on developing
southeasterly winds are warming nicely through the 40s.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Light winds, rapidly falling temps, and the few clouds with the sfc
high overhead, has resulted in fog/freezing fog to form across
portions of the area. The fog will be slow to exit east, until
closer to 15Z. Out west winds are expected to stay up, thanks to the
increasing pressure gradient with the exiting high.

Highs will remain in the 50s across much of the area, to the mid to
upper 60s southwest of Pierre over the next couple of days. Fire
weather concerns will return to the west, as wind gusts near 25kts
this afternoon and RH values fall to 35-45 percent.

Other than the fog this morning, the main story will be the chance
of precip starting Tuesday morning, and becoming likely east Tuesday
afternoon-evening. The sfc low over southwestern SD Tuesday morning
will shift to eastern NE Tuesday night. While the entire area could
use a widespread rain, it looks like the western third of the cwa
will stay mainly dry. QPF could be over 0.25in east of a line from
ABR to Clark, and closer to 0.5in over our 3 northeastern counties
through late Tuesday night. As previously stated in the last
discussion upslope flow over the Coteau should result in higher
precip there. Dry weather will return for Wednesday as the sfc low
exits across IA. May have some lingering showers northeast, as
another low crosses south central Canada.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Extended models continue to indicate significantly different
solutions. The GFS and GEM are in somewhat closer agreement keeping
the period dominated by dry conditions. The ECMWF starts off dry,
then shows a low pressure system tracking across the Central Plains,
bringing precipitation to the area on Saturday. At this time, will
stick with the Superblend solution, which is trending more toward
the GFS and GEM.

Thursday will be the warmest day of the period, with much of the CWA
seeing highs in the 60s. Slightly cooler air then moves in, with
highs in the 50s through the rest of the long term. Overnight lows
will be in the 30s to lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Other than some patchy fog across the far eastern CWA early this
morning, VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight.




LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.