Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 182331 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
631 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

Scattered showers have been the main game this afternoon. That, and
plenty of cloud cover. Morning convection over the northeastern CWA
has played a significant roll in our afternoon weather. The sfc low
is not set up just south of Chamberlain and Mitchell. Southerly
winds remain over the eastern half of the forecast area, with dew
points in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Plenty of moisture is
available, but instability has been a problem. North winds and much
cooler air is moving in on the back side the of the low, with MBG
and PIR gusting to around 20kts. The thinking at this point is that
the best chance for stronger storms will be on the south-
southeasterly portions of the area and extend across western MN and
southeastern SD. 0-6km bulk shear is still around 30-40kts, with the
best CAPE values to our southeast.

Cooler air will continue to push in from the northwest, with highs
both Friday and Saturday topping out around 70 degrees. The main
500MB trough extending from Hudson Bay through southern Alberta this
afternoon will slide into western ND Friday afternoon and finally
exit to our east after daybreak Saturday. As a result, dry weather
will slowly push in Friday night. Could not rule out slight chance
pops over eastern SD and west central MN on Saturday as northwesterly
flow continues aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

The models all show our region in northwest flow aloft with a 50h
ridge axis to the west with surface high pressure over our area.
Sunday will still be a relatively cool day across the cwa under
mostly sunny skies with highs mainly in the 70s. The upper ridge out
west will build across the region through Monday night as a large
low pressure area/trough moves into western Canada/Pacific
Northwest. Thus, warmer air will be drawn in for Monday and Tuesday
with temperatures warming into the mid 80s to the lower 90s. Then as
the upper level low pressure trough moves in from the west, a cold
front at the surface will push across our region Tuesday into
Wednesday morning bringing chances of thunderstorms with it. It will
also cool down some into Wednesday and Thursday across the cwa as
the upper level flow becomes northwest behind the upper trough.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the valid taf period.
Showers/storms are possible at all terminals through Friday. Any
stronger storms could briefly bring down vsbys to mvfr.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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