Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291127 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
527 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Upper trough and associated TROWAL moisture continues to persist
across the forecast area this morning with a broad area of generally
light snow and strong winds, the corridor of which is strongest over
the Missouri valley and points west. Conditions will change little
over the course of the day as the low wobbles over western
Minnesota, aside from the fact that upstream returns are a bit
higher and high res guidance suggests some of these stronger areas
of snow will migrate into the CWA.

Accumulations have been light overnight at the office,
though its difficult to tell at this point how the rest of the CWA
has faired. The only other samples taken are downtown KELO
webcams from Eureka/Miller/Watertown, all indicating either snow
or ice and generally poor driving conditions. As such, have
expanded the winter weather advisory to the east/south and
extended in time to match surrounding offices. This fits the
narrative as bands of snow and reduced visibility due to strong
winds will likely fill in the James valley and upslope areas of
the Coteau through the day.

As the system continues to weaken, NAM bufkit profiles suggest we
lose temperatures in the dendritic growth zone over the Sisseton
hills, and thus could see snow change to freezing drizzle. At the
same time, omega values drop off so there is still uncertainty as to
whether this will materialize or not.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The extended period looks to be mainly dry, with just a couple
periods of light snow possible over the weekend as high pressure
exits the region and a low pressure system tracks through. Limited
moisture and upper level support should lead to just some brief
periods of light snow Saturday afternoon into the day Sunday, mainly
across the north and east, with no accumulations expected.
High pressure begins to nose back over the region from the northwest
early next week.

High temperatures will be right around normal through the period,
mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with overnight lows in the upper
teens to mid 20s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A low pressure system will continue to bring a mix of
precipitation types to the area today and tonight. Cigs will
generally be IFR/MVFR, with MVFR vsbys due to falling and blowing
snow. IFR vsbys are possible under any possible heavier snow
bands.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>018-033>037-045.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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