Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270550 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUNDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR TNT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH OVER THE REGION BUT
WINDS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP ENOUGH SUCH THAT LOWS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO CHILLY. HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WILL TURN A BIT CHILLY UNDER A SFC HIGH AND LITTLE TO NO WIND. FOR
SUNDAY FULLY EXPECT SC/CU TO FORM BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT.
MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO SNEAK OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA SO WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP
MIXING WILL ALSO PROMOTE AT LEAST BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH
A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT HIGHS MORE ON SUNDAY DESPITE
DEEP MIXING LAYER.



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. POSITIVE PNA
PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CONUS...WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION. WITH
NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO BE NEAR CLIMO NORMALS
WITH LITTLE WIND UNDER THE HIGH. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME MINOR 700HPA
WAVES DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW THAT COULD SPARK UP A FEW
MINOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...BUT NOWHERE NEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MAKE A MENTION OF ATTM.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STRATUS CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AT
ABR AND ATY INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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