Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 251132 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
632 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WEAK RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END BY MID MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXPECT ADVISORY SPEEDS BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. BROWN COUNTY MAY
BE BORDERLINE ON THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...BUT ITS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KEEP A CONSISTENT PICTURE ACROSS THE BOARD. BECAUSE OF
WIND SPEEDS AND DEAD FUELS...FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...SO DID TREND
TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON A 100+
KT JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. MOISTURE PROFILES ARENT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER.

THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DEEPER AS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY...AND ISENTROPIC PLOTS SHOW MODERATE LIFT. PTYPE LOOKS TO
BEGIN AS SNOW...AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER...NEARING THE 60
DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN WEST RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOME CONTINUED WAA PRECIP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE COTEAU. THIS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
END QUICKLY FRI EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE AROUND THE REGION.
THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP
THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WHICH
WILL CAUSE WARMER TEMPS AT THE SFC AND DRIER WEATHER. SUPERBLEND
DOES BRING IN MORE PRECIP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BUT MODELS KEEP MOST OF
THE ENERGY NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 35 KTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-011-
     019>023.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE






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