Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270102
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
702 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Weak surface low pressure over north central SD will move across
northern SD tonight. System will produce some light snow/flurries
over the southern zones for tonight. Flat upper level ridge over MT
will shift a little east overnight. Tweaked hourly temp, dewpoints,
sky and wind for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast challenges in the short term will be temperatures and
light snow chances.

Unlike last night tough to pick out any wave features on water
vapor to impact the region. Precipitable h2o values increase to
around a quarter inch tonight and while there is some f-gen
forcing across the far south along with some 850mb warm advection
on back side of surface high, synoptic scale forcing lacking. High
resolution model guidance also not nearly as robust with qpf. Will
maintain some pops across the south but overall confidence on the
low side. With clouds and best warming in the column across the
south could see a respectable thermal contrast across the state
with lows around zero in the NW to teens in the south.

The next mid level trough will approach the region Monday. An
associated surface low and E-W frontal boundary will organize
during the day with the boundary oriented across the southern
forecast area. North of the boundary condensation pressure
deficits lower during the afternoon although isentropic lift is
fairly weak. Timing of the wave will determine when pcpn
propagates into the forecast area but likely not till late
afternoon. With baroclinic zone oriented from N-S temperatures
will range accordingly with warmest temperatures across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast models are in fairly good agreement that an active pattern
is developing for the beginning to middle of the week and next
weekend. This pattern will bring at least slight chances to chances
of precipitation for much of the area during those periods.
Temperatures will cool to slightly below normal for Tuesday through
Thursday night as a broad upper level trough swings through, then
warming back to slightly above normal temperatures for next weekend.

On Monday night into Tuesday, a strong Colorado Low will move into
the Central Plains. The operational models are in good agreement
that the associated warm front will move through Monday night with a
fairly strong shortwave aloft moving through Tuesday. These
forcing will bring chances for snow Monday night through Tuesday,
with perhaps a narrow band of intense snowfall rates Tuesday.
Late Tuesday night through Wednesday, expect another shortwave and
its associated weak sfc low bring swing through, but there is
lower model confidence in the track/strength, so will go with
slight chances of light snow across much of the area.

Wednesday night into Thursday, there is good model agreement that an
Alberta clipper will rush through western ND and eastern SD into IA.
While this will likely bring a quick few inches of snow to central
ND and northeast SD, the impacts should miss our forecast
area...bringing a dry period Wednesday night through Friday.
Temperatures bottom out Thursday night as sfc high pressure passes
through. Could see lows dipping below zero along and north of Hwy 2
Thursday night.

On Friday, warmer air and moisture start to return to the Northern
Plains ahead of a strong Low moving through central Canada. GFS/GEFS
keep all but the northern third of the area generally dry Fri-Sun
night with this system. However, the Euro/Canadian bring two
clippers through Fri-Sun night with precip chances on and off all
weekend. Since model confidence is so low in PoPs and temperature
fields Sat-Mon, went with a blended solution.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

VFR conditions were across the area. Fog loop/surface obs indicated
a mostly clear sky over the northern Red River Valley and much of
the southeast zones. Lower cigs were moving in from the west into
southeast ND and adjacent parts of west central MN. Expect mostly
MVFR cigs over the southern half of the forecast area. The MVFR
conditions may shift north into the northern Red River Valley for
Mon and IFR conditions possible in the northwest zones Mon
afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Hoppes



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