Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
943 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Issued at 943 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Fog has developed a bit further east than expected, so spread
mention into the northern Red River Valley. Web cams show that
coverage is very patchy, and Cavalier has been bouncing between
1/4 and over 2 miles. Will continue to monitor, but with winds
picking up later tonight think that the fog threat will be gone
before sunrise. Tweaked temperatures for current readings as some
spots have rapidly dropped into the low teens with clear skies,
but temps should steady off or even rise as winds pick up and
clouds move into the area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Temperatures this afternoon will decrease into the 20s for many
areas with some teens possible in northern locations, especially
if skies remain clear over snow cover. Winds will be light
overnight before gradually building towards early morning Monday.
This will allow for the chance of some freezing fog advertised by
higher resolution guidance like the HRRR/RAP/CONSMOS near and
north of the Devils Lake area. Building winds here after midnight
should help scour out any potential freezing fog should it build.

Monday will be breezier as a deepening low pressure system moves
across southern Manitoba. This low will also bring a cold front
and some light precipitation chances in the form of light snow,
mainly for the Lake of the Woods area. As the cold front passes
through the region Monday afternoon, gusty northwest winds
exceeding 25 mph will build lasting through the overnight. High
temperatures Monday will be warm with highs easily getting into
the 30s and 40s. This is aided by warm air advection and southerly
turning westerly winds ahead of the developing system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

First wave drops down in the northwest flow aloft Monday night.
Biggest impact will probably be the gusty northwest winds and colder
air moving in behind the sfc cold front. Coordinated with adjacent
offices to bump up winds Monday night into portions of Tuesday.
There may be some light snow that sinks southward behind this
system, but at this point it looks to mainly affect northwest
Minnesota with some minimal amounts.

Should be a bit of a break before the next system begins to spread
some light snow into portions of the area Wednesday. This system
continues to weaken as it moves east, so the least effects would be
over west central Minnesota. Not looking like much wind with this
system. Models have hinted at the potential for mixed pcpn on the
back edge of this area of pcpn. At this point, that may be more for
the Devils Lake to Valley City to Forman corridor, but will keep an
eye on this with later forecasts.

Thanksgiving Day itself continues to look quiet, with the FA mainly
under high pressure. Moving into Friday through the weekend,
confidence decreases. Some sort of clipper system moves through
Friday into Friday night and any sort of pcpn would be minimal. Not
seeing much for pcpn on either Sat or Sun at this point, which would
also be big travel days.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions across the region and will continue through the TAF
period. Some mid and high level clouds will move in later tonight
and tomorrow, but all ceilings will be above 5000 ft. Some fog
formation is possible in the KDVL area, but at this point think
the biggest risk will remain north of the airport so will keep out
of the TAF. Winds will increase slightly out of the southwest late
tonight and tomorrow morning, then pick up even more out of the
west to northwest as a low pressure system moves through. Gusts
late tomorrow at the western TAF sites could be above 20 kts.




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