Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 172127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
327 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Temperatures continue to be the main challenge for the period.

Another day where some spots in the CWA have struggled to see
warming temperatures as snowpack and colder air stubbornly hold on
beneath warming aloft. Just east of the Red River has not even
reached 20 degrees while areas in the pine trees have climbed into
the 30s. A shortwave trough moving across northern Manitoba will
move further east tonight, which will not have much of an effect
on us except for increasing the pressure gradient over the
Northern Plains. West to southwest winds will continue to bring
even warmer 925mb temps into the area, and there should be some
decent mixing. Some cirrus will also be moving into the area,
which could slightly decreasing outgoing radiation. All the model
solutions are very warm for tonight, with lows just barely below
our current highs. Think that mixing and warm air advection will
help, but did lean towards the cooler end of the models with mid
teens just east of the Red and some upper teens and 20s elsewhere.

The warm air advection and good mixing will continue into
tomorrow. Winds will help keep any morning fog formation at bay
so think full sunshine tomorrow should also help. Will continue to
keep highs in the 30s for Wednesday, but did lower the Hallock to
Ada area a couple of degrees to near 30 and raised highs a bit in
the pine tree area of the east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Good agreement continues with the overall synoptic scale
evolution through the forecast period. 500mb ridging will continue
through the work week with temps hinging on fog development and
clouds. Fog looks possible Thursday morning as 20+ degree dewpoint
air lifts north over the cold snow pack. Daytime highs will depend
on clouds and fog, will go with ensemble blends with the mid 30s
through the rest of the week and into the weekend as airmass temps
remain virtually unchanged. Over the weekend light precip chances
increase with a rain and snow mix, depending on the time of day,
as short wave energy undercuts the ridge.

Light chances for precipitation linger into Monday with above normal
temps continuing for the first part of next week as highs are
expected to be in the low 30s with lows in the 20s and upper teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

VFR conditions at all TAF sites with some cirrus moving into the
area. Southwest winds will be picking up to the 10 to 15 kt range
later today and that will continue into tonight. With the
increasing winds think that fog formation is less likely tonight
and will keep all sites VFR throughout the period.




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