Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Forecast on track with no update necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Light rain has reached Fargo however returns from there south to
the border not very impressive so will not be increasing pops
which at this time seem on the high end. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Only changes this update was to trim/delay pops across the central
and northern valley as rain yet to become very organized over the
southern valley from obs and radar trends. This delay also
supported by high resolution model guidance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Surface low currently centered across eastern Nebraska with fairly
large precipitation area to its north will continue to propagate
north and east into tonight. Precipitation has been a bit slow to
enter the southern forecast area but it`s finally getting there as
it gets a push from an upper wave along the western North
Dakota/South Dakota border. Still looks like the majority of this
precipitation will be generally south of Highway 2 with the
greatest amounts more along and south of I-94 (ND) and Highway 10
(MN). Latest model runs do slow down the eastward progression of
this precipitation so did trend towards higher PoPs overnight/early
Thursday morning more than the previous forecast to account for
this slower exit. The possibility still exists for a little bit of
snow mixing in late overnight and towards the morning hours
across the far east but any accumulations should be minimal as
rates shouldn`t be high enough to overcome the warm ground.

Another area of much lighter precipitation looks to move through
on Thursday (mainly across the north) with a weaker upper wave.

Temperatures to remain fairly mild overnight with plenty of cloud
cover in place with recovery into the low to mid 50s (pretty
similar to Wednesday) for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Thursday night through Saturday...The end of the work week starts
out fairly quiet with high pressure over the Northern Plains.
Temperatures will warm towards the 60 mark on Friday as the surface
high moves east and warm air advection starts to kick in. A northern
branch shortwave trough moving through southern Canada into the
Northern Plains on Saturday will help push a cold front down into
the area. However, there is a lot of inconsistency between the
deterministic models as to the exact timing of the front. Will keep
some fairly low POPs along the front as timing is uncertain and
model QPF is pretty sparse. For now will have highs in the 40s north
to 60s south with the boundary somewhere across the CWA on Saturday,
with further adjustments needed as timing becomes more clear.

Sunday and Monday...The frontal boundary that pushed through stalls
out near the ND/SD border, then starts to lift back north late
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the next upper trough moving into
the region on Monday. There are still differences with the timing of
the warm front and exact track of the surface low, so will continue
with fairly high POPs area wide and highs slightly below seasonal
averages although rain and clouds will keep lows fairly mild in the
30s to low 40s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Some wrap around precip behind the departing
low on Tuesday, but then quiet as high pressure builds into the
area. Temperatures will be a bit below normal for late April.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

MVFR cigs have reached the dakotas border region and guidance
wants to bring lower cigs as far north as FAR and BJI during the
overnight into the morning. Confidence not real high with this but
maintained consistency with forecast with uncertainty. Remainder
of the fa will remain VFR through the period. Not anticipating
VSBY to go blo VFR in -ra areas.




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