Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
658 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Upper level low moving NNE and will stall out as anticipated near
Roseau and then move east later tonight. Drier air working
southwestward has helped to greatly clear out the clouds over much
of northeastern ND into southern ND, much more so that originally
thought. Do expect clouds to re-fill back in today, esp in the RRV
closer to the cold pool aloft. Kept temps the same. Did let the
winter wx adv expire though lingering snow continues Warroad area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Water vapor shows the upper low near Thief River Falls and just
west of its track on Wednesday was a band of around 6 inches of
snow from Lisbon area to just west of Fargo to Grand Forks. The
upper low will move toward Roseau area today and stall out as
another piece of energy rotates around the upper low this
aftn/eve. The upper low will then move off to the east late
tonight. residual clouds will hold over all but the nw fcst area
today and with continued low level cold advection from the
northeast into NW MN and the central RRV it will be another chilly
day with highs in this region 32-35F. Some lingering light snow at
times today in far NW MN/lake of the woods region. Will let all
advisories expire as scheduled. Clearing will progress east
tonight thru the RRV as the upper low departs. Chilly night with
lows in the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

High pressure moving into E ND Friday-Friday night will mean
sunshine and the low level temperatures will gradually warm
getting closer to normal values Saturday.

Sunday to Wednesday night... All eyes across the upper midwest will
be on the next 500mb low pressure system organizing Sunday over the
TX/OK panhandles. As it lifts to the NE and matures rain and snow
will be possible with in the northern precip shield. GEFS and EC in
far agreement with rain and snow across the far SE zones by Sunday
evening with the EC spreading snow back to the west over the RRV on
Monday. Placement and track of SFC low along with upper low will
define rain and snow placement. If ridging ahead of the system
increases then a western shift to the expected track would be
likely. As for temps ahead of the system on Sunday will be in the
mid 50s. Monday and Tuesday temps will depend on clouds and
placement of the system, currently forecasting 40s east of the
valley on Monday with 50s elsewhere. Progressive nature of the
system will allow a quick rebound with 50s expected to return by
Wednesday. Normal highs the first week of May are in the low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Drier air moving in from the north-northeast has dissipated the
lower clouds leaving most areas with a low end VFR deck. Could be
some MVFR cigs returning mainly east of the RRV today.




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