Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020908
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
408 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NM. SECONDARY TROUGH
OVER SASK. BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS
WITH A SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL OVER SASK. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE SASK/ALTA BORDER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
JET NOSING INTO MT. UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MN ARROWHEAD FRI WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
TROUGH. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TODAY THAN YESTERDAY RUNS.

700 HPA THETA-E BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ANEMIC. WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
AND ONE INCH OVER EASTERN ZONES AND WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SASK WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL FOLLOW. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL
OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEST COAST
TROUGH AND EAST COAST RIDGE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW POSSIBLY RETROGRADING AND LEADING TO
SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT REBOUND AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH THE CLOUDS DECREASING NOW EXPECT TO START THU OFF WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUN. MORNING HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD
LEAD TO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SCT-BKN CUMULUS. COLD
FRONT SHOULD IMPACT KDVL BY MID AFTERNOON AND KGFK/KFAR BY AROUND
00Z FRI. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THINK
THUNDER WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...SO WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS OR
VCSH IN THE TAFS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING WEST TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON



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