Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 080349
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN WITH 10 PM CST UPDATE WILL BE CHANGES TO THE WIND
HEADLINES TO THE FAR WEST. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
DOWN THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND INTO GWINNER HAVE DECREASED BELOW
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL GUSTING 35 TO
40 MPH. HAVE DOWNGRADED WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z.
COLUMN WILL BE WELL MIXED THROUGH MID AFTN TOMORROW...HOWEVER
HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER EAST OVER THE VALLEY...AND
MODELS BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS INTO DVL REGION BY MID MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON WILL LET MID SHIFT EVALUATE AND EXTEND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF WIND ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL VALLEY IS
STRUGGLING TO SHIFT EAST AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN EXTEND CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH REMAINDER OF EVENING FOR FAR EASTERN ND. WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 45 TO 50 MPH IN WESTERN POLK COUNTY...AND ARE
DECREASING IN THE FAR NORTH AROUND HALLOCK. HOWEVER...HCO STILL
MAINTAINING ONE HALF MILE IN BLOWING SNOW...AND WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION BEING OPEN COUNTRY...WILL HOLD ON TO BLIZZARD WARNING.
ELSEWHERE SEEING OBS FROM ONE HALF TO TWO MILES IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NO PLANS TO CHANGE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EITHER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MIXING TO ABOUT THE H875 LEVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEY. EXPECT THAT ONCE SNOW SHIFTS
EAST THAT WIND ADVISORY CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTN
TOMORROW...WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING IN OPEN COUNTRY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WORST CONDITIONS/LOWEST VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY...ROUGHLY FROM HALLOCK DOWN TO
CROOKSTON...WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN ONE QUARTER MILE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE
TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 03Z. WIND CONTINUE TO BE
STEADY AROUND 35 KTS TO 40 KTS...SO HIGH WIND WARNING IN WESTERN
ZONES STILL IN TACT. NO PLANNED HEADLINES CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS ONGOING HEADLINES. WILL RELY ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER VALLEY REGION ALONG WITH
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. AS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST SHOULD LOSE THE HIGHER GUSTS WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY. WITH GUSTS OVER 40KTS IN THIS AREA
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND HEADLINES AND CAN BE ADJUSTED PROBABLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE FROM THE VALLEY EAST
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY CONFINED TO STRONGER SNOW BANDS. APPEARS
TO BE A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOWER VSBY FROM METARS AND WEB CAMS JUST
EAST OF THE RED RIVER AND WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN BLIZZARD WARNING
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE VSBY GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4 MILES SO TOUGH
TO WARRANT BLIZZARD ELSEWHERE. WINDS TO STAY UP 20 TO 35 KTS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WITH NO BLOWING EXPECTED WITH CURRENT SNOW COVER
AND SHSN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FEEL VSBY WILL FURTHER IMPROVE
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST IN NW MN SO ALSO TOUGH TO
HOLD WITH WINTER STORM WARNING ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY. FOR THIS
WILL TRANSITION BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO A DEGREE
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

-SN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
ENDING IN THE FORENOON. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE W-E ACROSS THE REGION
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE EAST.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN.
LESS WIND AND SOME CLEARING WILL DROP MINIMUMS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO
MIDWEEK. SNOW CHANCES LOOK SPOTTY AND MINIMAL CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN FA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER PATTERN AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH A BLEND ATTM.
THUS...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
A WAVE PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. OTHERWISE...NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BIT OF RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND DOWN TO LIFR NEAR STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-
     028-038-049-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK


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