Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 101719
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1219 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST. THE SOUTHERN
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE INTENSE WHILE THE SHOWERS OVER ND HAVE
BEEN DECREASING...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY DOWN THERE. MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS...BUT OVERALL KEPT LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST
UNTIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. INCREASED CLOUDS BUT TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S SO WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING TO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF ND CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING TREND. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AT THIS POINT. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
NOT MUCH MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFTER 21Z. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...INCLUDING EXTENDING SOME LOW POPS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
SOME FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND AND NOT JUST
THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE GEM WAS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST WITH THE
GFS AND NAM COMPROMISES. WILL BLEND THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ALTA. ALSO A SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MT. MT SHORT
WAVE/JET STREAK FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET TO RESPOND OVER SD AND NE. INCREASED POPS A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE WEST FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT
WAVE. ALSO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY
OF PRECIP TO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN CANADA. POPS TWEAKED FOR FRI BUT
PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST ZONES WITH SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME RETURN FLOW PRECIP EXPECTED ON SAT AND PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SAT NIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

TEMPS TWEAKED A BIT...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS DEEP 500MB TROUGH PUSHING DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN THE BLYR NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH 850MB 25KT
WINDS BRINGING 4C TEMPS OVER THE REGION. WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
WITH NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS THAT AFTN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE  AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
AND SLIDES EAST FOR WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNUSUAL JULY PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR CIG AND VSBY EXPCTD THROUGH 00Z...AS DEBRIS FROM DSPTG TSRA
OVERSPREADS FA. SFC WINDS REMIN SOUTH 10G20 KTS THROUGH 00Z. WNDSHFT
/ FROPA REACHS DVL AROUND 09Z...TVF/GFK/FAR AFTER 12Z AND BJI AFT
16Z. SOME RASH ALONG FROPA WITH 4 TO 6 KFT CIGS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...EWENS





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