Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 121508
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1008 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CLOUD TREND AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GREATEST
CHALLENGE TODAY. WILL INITIALIZE 14Z SKY WITH LATEST SWIR IMAGE
AND HOLD THAT COVERAGE TROUGH EARLY AFTN. THIS AFTN SKY SHOULD
GRADUALLY THIN OUT WITH SOUTHEAST ND BEING THE LAST TO SCATTER OUT
(IT HAS THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING).SFC HIGH OVER
PLAINS WILL HELP KEEP A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE
EAST WILL SEE THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND THEREFORE THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF FROST DEVELOPMENT IN A CLOUD FREE SCENARIO. WILL MONITOR SKY
TRENDS THIS AFTN AND ADDRESS ANY FROST CONCERNS WITH THE AFTN
PACKAGE. NAM DNG5 MODEL WELL REPRESENTING MORNING TEMP TRENDS AND
USED TO INITIALIZE DIURNAL CURVE...WITH LOWEST TEMPS IN THE 32 TO
34 RANGE EAST OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT VERY SPOTTY WITH LAKE
TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE WARM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI SEPT 12 2014

WILL KEEP FROST HEADLINES GOING WITH SOME COOL READINGS THIS AM
WHERE SKIES HAVE STAYED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY 35 TO 40 WITH CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING TEMPS
FROM PLUMMETING. UPDATES SKY COVER BASED ON TRENDS AND TEMP CURVE
WITH NO CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI SEPT 12 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE TEMPS AND SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH SOLNS.

A PATCHY FROSTY MORNING WITH CLEARER SKIES IN NW MN ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL
SPOTS...FSE...BJI AND ITASCA. CLOUDS OVER E ND LIMITING TEMPS FROM
LOWERING BELOW UPPER 30S. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FROST HEADLINES AS
PATCHY NATURE OF CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT.

REST OF TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS 500MB SHEAR AXIS WHICH
PRODUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURS PM WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AND
EAST ZONES. THUS ADDED A ISO SHRA MENTION THIS AFTN. TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS COLUMN WARMS A COUPLE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING POTENTIALLY BETTER AS
MODELS INDICATE LESS MID CLOUD MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH SSW WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH WILL BRING SOME MIXING LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SOME 500MB RIDGING SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL GIVE WARMING WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI SEPT 12 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS
CONFINED TO THE DVL BASIN AND INTO N RRV THEN POSSIBLY SOME SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN NW MN. TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN SATURDAY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THU NIGHT..IT WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT THIS FAR OUT IS ALWAYS A
CHALLENGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI SEPT 12 2014

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY ERODE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH A CHC FOR SHRA ACTIVITY NEAR BJI THIS AFTN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...JK





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