Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131303
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
703 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Radar trends have been going across the MN side as our light snow
this morning has been dissipating, although a few sites are still
reporting -SN. Some lowered visibilities across the northern
counties to 3-5SM as some snow has started to blow around. So
will continue with patchy to areas of blowing snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Snow this morning and the possibility of blowing snow this
afternoon will be the main issues for the period.

Northern branch shortwave trough along with some mid level warm
advection has brought a fairly broad area of light snow across the
central CWA early this morning. Web cams confirm that light
amounts are reaching the ground. Short range models have struggled
with the snow, bringing it further southeast than it is actually
occurring, although the recent RAP run has been trending a bit
better. The shortwave will move quickly off to the northeast, and
think that our light snow will be done by mid morning. Not too
much banding potential is apparent and amounts will generally be
a half an inch or less.

There will be a decent pressure gradient today as the surface
trough over Canada moves further east. South to southwesterly
winds will pick up throughout the day, and although high
temperatures will rise into the 20s the breezy winds will keep
things from feeling very warm. The question is how high winds will
get and how much blowing snow will be possible. The pressure
gradient is good and there will be a good mixed layer. However,
there will also be a cross valley component to the wind and
surface winds are not unidirectional with the upper levels. Think
the northern Red River Valley could flirt with wind advisory
criteria. The blowing snow model gives a few hours of 20-30
percent probability of less than a half a mile up in the northern
counties, although coverage is pretty patchy. Not confident enough
to go with an advisory for blowing snow in the north but will hit
in the HWO and social media the potential for reduced visibilities
in the northern Valley today.

Southwesterly surface winds continue into tonight with warm air
advection. The mixing should keep readings in the teens even with
decreasing clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Upper air pattern transitions to more zonal flow by 12Z Wed and
Pacific moisture becomes a concern w/ a wave moving across northern
tier Wed night into Thu...as a sfc cold front sinks into the region
during the overnight period.  Thickness gradient increases and
soundings support all snow as the front moves through and temps
rapidly fall...with Thu highs setting up a tight gradient from
around zero in NW to the upper teens in the SE.  Made adjustments to
top down grids to support snow and remove mention of FZRA...per
coordination with BIS/ABR offices.  The tail end of the work wee
will see a rebound in temperatures into the teens Fri aftn.  Models
become out of phase w/ H500 pattern during the weekend but general
zonal to SW flow supports a bit more active wknd with chances of
snow mainly from Sat through Mon night.  Latest model blends
indicating best chance Sat night and Sun with main impacts
continuing to be north of Highway 2.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 703 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Light snow continues at KTVF but has tapered off at most of the
other TAF sites. Some IFR ceilings extending in a narrow band up
to KGFK and KTVF is MVFR with the snow but everyone else is VFR.
Ceilings will not be very low but some MVFR visibility will be
possible today as snow blows around a bit. Have lowered vis at
KDVL and KGFK as they seem most likely to blow around. Winds will
from the south to southwest with some gusts around 30 kts. The
winds will diminish this evening and all sites will be VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JR



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