Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THERE WAS SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA BUT NOW
SOME STRATOCUMULUS IS FILLING IN THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUD
TRENDS AS CU RULES INDICATES AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING
TODAY. A FEW OBSERVATION SITES HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTING SOME
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD SOME LOW SNOW CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL JUST EXPAND THE
AREA A LITTLE MORE AND GO WITH JUST FLURRIES. PRETTY MINIMAL
CHANGES OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WAS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. FORECAST AREA GOES INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MON AND TUE. ALSO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST GETS KNOCKED DOWN AS EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
EAST. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS TUE AND THEREAFTER AND MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH EACH STREAM. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD.

MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ADIABATIC LAYERS AT NIGHT.
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RELATIVELY WARM DESPITE COLD AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT. FEW WEAK ECHOES OVER SOUTHERN MAN THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND MON AND A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR
TUE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH. WITH THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME FAIRLY HIGH QPF ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR DAY 4...AND WITH TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS...SNOW SEEMS MOST LIKELY. PRECIP WILL
TAPER OFF INTO THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THINK THE
SFC HIGH WILL BE FAIRLY DOMINANT THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
MODELS PRETTY ANEMIC ON PRECIP. LOWERED POPS DOWN DURING THAT
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE ARE
NOT HUGELY HIGH...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE WITH THE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP THE 20-30 POPS THAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION
GIVES US. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AN IFR AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND APPEARS TO BE
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA HAD MVFR CIGS
AROUND 12 HUNDRED FT. IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...CLEARING WAS
OCCURRING. CLEARING WAS ALSO OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
AND WAS MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE ND SIDE THIS MORNING AND THE MN SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDY WITH NORTH WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED AT HALLOCK AND OSLO AND
MINOR FLOODING IN OTHER NW MN TRIBS AND ON THE RED FROM GRAND FORKS
NORTH.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT DOWN STREAM OF GRAFTON AND
MINTO ACROSS EASTERN WALSH CONTINUES AS THE PARK AND FOREST RIVERS
RECEDE INTO THE WIDENING RED RIVER BETWEEN OSLO AND DRAYTON.
OSLO...DRAYTON AND PEMBINA CONTINUE TO RISE WITH EXPECTED CRESTS
NEXT WEEK. ROSEAU HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THROUGH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.   THE HALLOCK POINT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED
BY LAKE BRONSON RELEASES AND LOCAL SNOW MELT WORKING INTO THE FROZEN
RIVER SYSTEM.

THE UNIQUE SITE THIS YEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE SNAKE RIVER AT
ALVARADO AS THIS WINTERS SNOWFALL AND WINDS COMBINED TO CREATE SNOW
DRIFTS BLOCKING THE CHANNEL IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS BETWEEN WARREN AND
ALVARADO.  THIS DAMMING HAS CAUSED THE SNAKE RIVER TO SPILL INTO
AREA FARMLAND AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS FROM WARREN TO ALVARADO.
ALVARADO HAD TAKEN A DECREASING TURN DUE TO WATER NOT MAKING IT TO
THE GAGE BUT RIVER LEVELS HAVE SHARPLY TURNED BACK UP OVERNIGHT. THE
RIVER SHOULD CREST AT MINOR STAGE LATER TODAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT`S RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF A THIRD TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH WILL KEEP THE BUFFALO BASIN A BIT HIGHER WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FLOODING AT DILWORTH.  HAWLEY IS APPROACHING
MINOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER IT WILL
ACHIEVE SAME...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES
HYDROLOGY...JR






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