Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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133
FXUS63 KFGF 041804
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1204 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY
ENDING BUT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN CLOUDS/TEMPS BUT ALSO TWO WINTER
SYSTEMS...ONE FRIDAY AND ANOTHER STARTING SAT NIGHT. THERE IS
STILL SOME REMNANT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FA BUT EXPECT
IT TO MOVE OFF TO THE SE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THIS
MOVES OFF WILL BE DEALING WITH THE CLOUD/TEMP ISSUE TODAY. STILL
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM BUT THERE ARE HOLES TOO.
GENERALLY THINKING THAT MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
AFTERNOON SUN. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DO GIVE
WAY TO THE SUN. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRI. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT IS PASSING OUT OF THE FA NOW. ANOTHER WEAK
SFC LOW PRODUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.
WINDS ALSO WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRI NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME DECENT WARMING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A
WARM WEDGE WORKING INTO EASTERN ND ON SAT/SAT EVENING. MODELS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH PCPN AMOUNTS/LOCATION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. MANY HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX SAT EVENING. TEMPS BEGIN TO CRASH AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES PAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE THE PCPN
TYPE WOULD SWITCH TO SNOW ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN AND
MON. THE TWO MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MON. THE
TWO MODELS DIVERGE AFTER MON WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE NORTH
SOLUTION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUN. MON AND TUE HIGH TEMPS
WERE DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES AND WED HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED
BY THREE OR FOUR DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. EXPECTING
THE TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST. BAND OF SNOW TOMORROW MORNING WITH
FARGO TAF SITE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTED WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND
LOWEST CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...JK



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