Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
702 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Issued at 701 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

No changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level short wave over
eastern UT. Short wave forecast to move over the forecast
area Fri evening. E-W upper level jet was located over
southern Canada. Upper level jet will shift into eastern
Canada tonight and Sat. Low level jet will increase across
southern MN Fri evening in response with next short wave.
Precip should affect mainly the southeast zones.

Another area of precip is forecast over the northwest zones
for mainly this afternoon and tonight. Frontal boundary over
southern MN is essentially stalled with warm advection to
occur north of the boundary. Also in the right rear quad of jet.
Precipitable water rises to over 1.5 inches tonight. Precip
is expected along the 700 hpa theta-e gradient.

Main upper trough was over CA. Upper trough will move into ND Sat
night and become negatively tilted. Better than 100M height falls
are expected with system. Stronger cold front will sweep in from
the west Sat night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The Monday through Thursday time frame looks to remain on the wet
side. The 500 mb flow pattern is either southwest or nearly south to
north. Although there are low pcpn chances throughout, at this time
it looks like Tuesday night through Thursday will have the best
chances. The 500 mb pattern would bring a closed system into the
western Canadian prairie provinces with the better south to north
flow over the Northern Plains. At the surface there is a stalled
frontal boundary over the eastern Dakotas. Models do differ on the
exact details yet, so hard to nail things down too much yet. However
the 00Z GFS has the flow a little more from the southwest, so it
pushes the sfc front eastward faster than the other models. At this
point, Tuesday looks like the warmest day. However, since the GFS
pushes the boundary through the fastest, it is a little cooler.
After the warmer day Tuesday, high temperatures fall back a little
closer to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

IFR conditions extended south of a line roughly from BDE to JMS.
MVFR conditions were south of a line roughly from ROX to
Carrington ND. VFR conditions was over parts of northeast ND.
Expect IFR conditions to remain over the current area today. Some
erosion of the IFR area may occur over northeast ND and over west
central MN late this morning or early afternoon through the
evening. Then IFR conditions are expected for much of the area
later tonight and Sat.




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